Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a solid sized slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals of the night are as follows: Toronto Raptors (117), Houston Rockets (116), and the New Orleans Pelicans (111). The highest priced players on the slate for tonight are James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Russell Westbrook.
Free Squares
- Chris Paul PG/SG HOU ($8,400)
- Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets will take on the Charlotte Hornets tonight at home. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 116-points and they are currently 12.0-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.4 and the Hornets have an implied total sitting at right around 102.8. Both of these teams play at a high-pace which makes this a solid fantasy game to target tonight. Chris Paul is likely going to be guarded by Kemba Walker tonight who is a guy I don’t think he will have any trouble getting the better of. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 30.2 MPG, 5.0 RPG, 9.5 APG, .4 BLKPG, 2.1 STLPG, 14.8 PPG, 40.8 FPPG, and a 1.35 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 46.494 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.54x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. Paul has really started to play exceptionally in Houston. This game is going to be a fast game with a lot of fantasy opportunities and I think Paul has a ton of upside tonight. Load him up as a high-priced guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Rajon Rondo PG NOR ($6,300)
- Rajon Rondo and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight at home. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they have are currently 2.5-point favorites. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.9 and the Bucks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.5. This will be a pace down game but I think Rondo still has the ability to exceed his value tonight. He is most likely going to be guarded by Eric Bledsoe who is an average defender. Rondo has the following stats on the season so far this year: 26.1 MPG, 4.2 RPG, 8.4 APG, .2 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 7.9 PPG, 28.0 FPPG, and a 1.07 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.871 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.74x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. Rondo has fit well since coming back from injury and I expect another solid game for him tonight. He is still affordably priced and I like the spot he is in tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Aron Baynes C BOS ($3,900)
- Aron Baynes and the Boston Celtics will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight at home. The Celtics have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. The Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 98.7 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.6. This will be a nice little pace up game for the Celtics and Baynes tonight which should help his fantasy production. For Baynes matchup tonight there is a possibility that Jokic comes back tonight which would obviously be a tough matchup but I still don’t mind him in that matchup since his price is so low and he is going to get a ton of minutes. If Jokic isn’t playing tonight Baynes almost becomes a must play for me tonight. Baynes has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 17.4 MPG, 5.3 RPG, .9 APG, .6 BLKPG, .3 STLPG, 5.8 PPG, 15.1 FPPG, and a .87 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection sitting at right around 21.889 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.62x value. I think he is going to play more minutes than that tonight and I expect him to crush his value tonight. Load him up as a salary saver center on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Chris Paul tonight! Good luck Army!
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