Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our free squares fared last night. Our first free square of the night was Taurean Prince who ended up with 20.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.3x value. Our second free square of the night was Ben Simmons who ended up with 40.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.4x value. Our final free square was Lauri Markkanen who ended up with 33.25 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.2x value.
Tonight
We have a medium sized slate ahead of us for Friday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: Golden State Warriors (120), Toronto Raptors (113), and the Orlando Magic (109). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, and Anthony Davis.
Free Squares
- Lauri Markkanen PF CHI ($6,000)
- Lauri Markkanen and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Sacramento Kings at home tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 98-points and they are currently 1.0-point underdogs. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 97.9. This will be a pace-down game for the Bulls tonight but I still like the spot and price for Markkanen tonight. Markkanen is likely going to be matched up against Skal Labissiere who is the 14th worst power forward defender tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far: 30.4 MPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.5 APG, .6 BLKPG, 14.6 PPG, 30.3 FPPG, and a 1.0 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.434 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.57x value. He is projected for right around 32 minutes. Markkanen has had a good fantasy season so far and I expect that to continue tonight against the Kings. He has a solid matchup, has a high FPPM, and is relatively affordable. Load him up as a medium priced power forward tonight.
- Nikola Vucevic C ORL ($7,200)
- Nikola Vucevic and the Orlando Magic will take on the Golden State Warriors tonight at home. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 11.0-point underdogs. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 103.5 and the Golden State Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 105.3. This is going to be a pace up game for the Magic who already play at a fast pace. Vucevic is likely going to be matched up against Zaza Pachulia who is a solid defender but I think they uptempo game will still allow Vucevic to exceed his value tonight. He has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 29.5 MPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.0 APG, .9 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 16.5 PPG, 35.9 FPPG, and a 1.22 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 38.916 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.4x value. He is projected for right around 32 minutes. Vucevic does have a tough individual matchup but I like the other factors for him tonight. This is going to be an incredibly fast game for a guy who already has a high FPPM. He is not priced that high tonight and I think he will exceed his value tonight. Load him up at the center position on Draftkings tonight.
- Michael Carter-Williams PG CHA ($4,400)
- Michael Carter-Willaims and the Charlotte Hornets will take on the Miami Heat on the road tonight. The Hornets have an implied total sitting at right around 100-points and they are currently 2.0-point underdogs. The Hornets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.4 and the Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0. This will be a slight pace down game for the Hornets tonight but I don’t think it will affect MCW that much. Michael Carter-Willaims will most likely be guarded by Goran Dragic who is the 15th worst point guard defender on the slate tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far: 17.2 MPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.1 STLPG, 4.9 PPG, 15.1 FPPG, and a .88 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.945 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.12x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes. MCW is going to start for Kemba again tonight which means he is going to get a lot of minutes. He has a favorable matchup and I think it will be hard for him to not reach his value tonight. Load him up as a value point guard on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Nikola Vucevic tonight! Good luck Army!
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