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POINT GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs MIL)
As the saying goes on the DFS Army 10 Commandments of NBA, “Thou shall not fade Russell Westbrook when the Thunder are missing one of the OK3.” ß Fun fact, I was the first one to use OK3. Anyhow, Paul George is out tonight, and that means Westbrook will have some more scoring opportunities. We have seen this situation play out before when Kevin Durant would miss time and Westbrook’s numbers were through the roof – this is just a slightly different extension of that.
Kris Dunn (CHI vs IND)
IND is the 6th-best aDvP matchup on tonight’s slate – Dunn has been simply incredible over the month of December and that has caused his price to jump up to $8100 FD/$7400 DK, making this somewhat of a discussion. I typically like to find some value at PG, but I think Dunn would be a killer move to combo with Westbrook.
* GPP/SITUATIONAL
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN @ MIA)
I’ll be at the game tonight, so I’ll make sure he knows that I’m demanding success. The news I’m waiting on is whether Caris LeVert plays or not – he runs the point on the 2nd-unit, so if inactive, this could create a ton of minutes for Dinwiddie. MIA is a slightly better-than-average aDvP matchup for PGs this season. I would like Dinwiddie over Dunn, especially on FD at $6300… DK seems a bit much at $6500.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
James Harden (HOU @ WSH)
I’m not a huge fan of rolling guys out there on a B2B, but Harden has a lot to prove tonight. After last night’s disastrous second half, I expect HOU to come out fired up (like they did in the first half of last night’s game) and keep it together for the whole game. HOU and WSH are actually tied for 7th in defensive efficiency but HOU brings the league’s #1 offensive efficiency into the nation’s capital.
Wayne Ellington (MIA vs BKN)
It’s very hard to avoid the guy when his price still isn’t above $5k on FD. MIA still has a ton of injuries so he’ll still be guaranteed to play 30+ minutes in a very favorable matchup.
Devin Booker (PHX @ SAC)
While everyone looks at the SGs on the other side of this matchup, Booker could be a very sneaky way to go. It seemed like no one noticed he was back from injury last game, and still dropped 45 FDP in 33 minutes vs MEM.
Nicolas Batum (CHA @ GS)
Short and sweet – The DS loves Batum and GS has been a favorable aDvP matchup for SGs this season. Batum is very inexpensive as well.
* CAUTION
Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC vs PHX)
I hate using anyone on this Kings team when they’re at/near full health, so be cautious of blindly running Bogey2 out there tonight. He does have the best aDvP matchup for SGs, but my main gripe is his expected ownership percentage after last game’s outburst- his price increased significantly, and the Kings rotation is still a crowded place with the production coming from a number of different players. His minutes have been safe around 28-30 minutes all month and last game was the only time he went bananas like that.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Lance Stephenson (IND @ CHI)
With Oladipo inactive, Lance moves into the starting lineup once again – Last game vs DAL, he had a monster night playing 36 minutes and he’s in a much faster-paced game this time around. Kind of a no-brainer, even though his price slightly increased to $5800 FD/$5600 DK. Lance is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but it’s not a good idea to fade him.
Kevin Durant (GS @ CHA)
This will likely be the last game before Stephen Curry returns to the lineup. In my own head, I’d like to imagine that KD is saying, “Shit, let me get my numbers while I can.” In the real world, he probably doesn’t say that, but CHA has surprisingly been one of the best aDvP matchups for SFs and it’s actually the 4th-best on this slate.
Josh Richardson (MIA vs BKN)
With all of the injuries to MIA, I think it’s still viable to ride the J-Rich train. The ideal spot to play J-Rich is with Whiteside out of the lineup, but I really don’t see him playing that many minutes tonight… I explain it in the Kelly Olynyk blurb. I still have confidence in my boy, you should too.
*GPP
Bojan Bogdanovic (IND @ CHI)
With Lance taking over Oladipo’s role that basically leaves allllllll the SF minutes for my ol’ boy Bogey. He played 35 minutes last game and chumped his opportunity, but CHI is a favorable aDvP matchup, so I’d be willing to give him another try.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Kyle Kuzma (LAL vs LAC)
Blake Griffin (LAC @ LAL) – if he plays
Nobody is going to play Kumza today since he was listed as questionable earlier, but Luke Walton said he looked good at practice and should be good to go. This could also be the night that Blake Griffin returns for the Clippers and people will feel some type of way about that, but they shouldn’t, as he was already the 85th of 96 PFs in DRPM this season- interestingly enough, Kuzma is dead last in that stat, so Griffin might even be an option if he suits up.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA vs BKN)
I am fully aware that Hassan Whiteside is back in the Heat lineup, but the Nets did a fantastic job of keeping him off the court in last season’s matchups. Their rapid-tempo made it difficult for him to get up and down the court against them, and he’s already working his way back to game shape as he played only 18 minutes in his return last game – Against the Nets last season, Whiteside’s minutes in the three games were 25, 30 and 20. The absence of James Johnson also gives Olynyk a clear path to big minutes at PF, so we should still expect him to play 30+ minutes regardless. This is a fantastic matchups for both PFs/Cs, so fire him up.
Nikola Mirotic / Lauri Markkanen (CHI vs IND)
Both guys are getting the majority of minutes, cutting Bobby Portis out of the mix. IND has been a fantastic matchup for PFs this season, and Mirotic is especially interesting here if he gets some minutes at SF going up against Bojan Bogdanovic, who is a brutal defender.
* GPP
Zach Randolph (SAC @ PHX)
PHX is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PFs this season… Z-Bo hasn’t played many minutes over the last two games, and it seems to be performance-related as he shot a combined 8-for-27 from the field. I did mention my Kings hatred for DFS purposes when they’re at/near full health, but this matchup might be the cure for those shooting woes and keep him on the court.
Domantas Sabonis (IND @ CHI)
CHI is the best aDvP matchup for PFs this season – Sabonis has played very well recently, even in reduced minutes, so I’d like to see him get some more run over Thad Young who has failed to reach 5x value in six-straight games. However, what I’d like to see and what I DO see are two totally different entities.
Maxi Kleber (DAL @ NO)
He made everyone say, “Who the hell is Maxi Kleber?” earlier this week, and now he’ll be NEEDED to deal with the Twin Towers of NOLA. I talked about this last night with Bismack Biyombo, where certain teams will NEED their bigs to counteract the other teams’ bigs. Kleber did have five blocks vs TOR earlier this week so he is capable of excelling in this role.
CENTERS:
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR @ ATL)
With Ibaka out tonight, JoVal should crush it on the boards vs ATL. We got word about two hours before lock of Serge Ibaka’s one-game suspension so I think JoVal will likely be a little more chalky than we’d like him to be, but ATL has been a great aDvP matchup for centers all season… right now they are a literal eyelash away from being in the green at 0.999.
Steven Adams (OKC vs MIL)
The absence of Paul George will create some more scoring opportunities for Adams, but his bread is earned on the boards… a spot that MIL has struggled, grabbing the 3rd-fewest rebounds per game in the NBA. OKC grabs the 7th-most rebounds per game, including the most offensive rebounds per game, and Adams is a big reason why it’s going so well.
Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC @ PHX)
PHX allows the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game in the NBA, so this is a great spot for Cauley-Stein to do some damage for the fourth-straight game. As Z-Bo’s playing time is trending down, it’s no surprise that Cauley-Stein’s is going up – I like both guys a lot tonight, but if some crazy person was pointing a pistol at my face demanding to know who I liked better, it’d be Cauley-Stein.
