Before we get started we need to give huge congratulations to DFS Army Member “kanger”, for taking fourth in the DraftKings Milly Maker. This is our fourth member in the last 40-days to win over $50,000! We have had a $53,000 winner in NBA, a $150,000 winner in NFL, a $100,000 win in NBA, and this $50,000 win in Week 12 of the NFL season. The DFS Army helmets are up and down the standings across all DFS platforms and our membership is closing in on 2,000 because of it. We have enormous momentum, no doubt about it.
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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research, metrics, and analysis on how to use this information in your contests.
On this massive slate filled with incredible options at every position, we are going to have to plant our flag somewhere or else we will end up with 100 different lineups and try to cover every possible combination possible. While MME is an option for many of our members, this article will be directed towards those that are going to make only a handful of lineups and run a few locked players through our optimizer (Domination Station) which keeps churning out ENORMOUS winners.
Let’s get to work!
Situations to monitor for Wednesday:
Jeff Teague missed his third straight game on Tuesday and likely will be questionable for the matchup with the Pelicans on Wednesday night. If he’s out, Tyus Jones will continue to be a plug and play on both FanDuel and DraftKings ($4,500) as he is racking up solid totals with heavy minutes. Butler, Wiggins, and Towns all receive 3% usage rate spikes and moderate FP/Min increases with Teague out of the lineup as well.
Kemba Walker is doubtful for Wednesday night and Michael Carter-Williams is likely to start. MCW is priced at $4,200 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, that really only make him DK viable and untouchable on FD. My dark horse for this situation would be Malik Monk, who should only be used in the largest of GPPs if any. He has a 4.0% usage rate spike with Kemba off the court and if his playing time is juiced into the mid-20’s he could return solid value as near minimum price.
Mario Chalmers is questionable with an ankle injury. If he’s out, Andrew Harrison could receive the start but he has zero ceiling even if he does. Tyreke Evans and Marc Gasol would receive significant usage bumps and likely would play every minute their legs can withstand as the offense would need to run through one of them at all times.
Ben Simmons is questionable after rolling his ankle last game, which would put T.J. McConnell in play if Simmon’s is ruled out. Joel Embiid also picks up significant usage, nearing 38% in this scenario, but has struggled to pay off his elevated price tag as of late.
Before we get started I just wanted to post this here just in case any of OUR members missed it on our VIP Slack this morning. We’ve had four qualifier seats won on DK, four wins between $50,000 and $150,o00 and dozens of 5-digit winning lineups by members over the past 45-days. I sent this little message out in Slack this morning because recently, our members keep praising the staff in Slack for all our extra one-on-one work and discussions. This goes out to all of you, the best members in the universe:
Guards
Kyle Lowry – The Raptors have an implied total of 107.0 points and Lowry has scored 38-plus fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings in seven of the last eight games. His usage rate hasn’t changed at all as he has been hovering around 24% during that stretch, but his efficiency is through the roof and he’s been racking up plenty of peripheral stats. That has raised his scoring floor and ceiling which makes him an ideal ladder system point guard (our investment strategy we lay out for our members to enable the largest ROI possible).
Steph Curry – He’s questionable but did practice on Tuesday. It is likely that Curry and his insane usage rate, 34.02% or more in each of the last five games, will not slow down against the Lakers. It’s going to be a very fast-paced game and currently, the Warriors are 10.0 point favorites with a 225 total. Fire him up in cash games and enjoy 35-foot three-point shots for 34-minutes of playing time.
Dennis Smith – He’s moderately priced on both FD and DK and has a superb pace-up matchup with the Brooklyn Nets. The game should stay competitive throughout which means Smith will be leaned on heavily in a strong DvP matchup against Spencer Dinwiddie. His 27.3% usage rate and 0.92 FP/Min likely see small spikes in this game.
Reggie Jackson – The Bulls guards just went off against the Suns and I believe the Pistons guards will do the same on Wednesday. Reggie Jackson has a 25.2% usage rate and is averaging 1.00 FP/Min. The Suns are the worst team in the NBA against guards. Sometimes it’s this simple.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – He’s basically to NBA DFS what a volume running back in NFL DFS is. He doesn’t have a high usage rate or a high FP/Min, but because of he plays heavy minutes his production ends up pretty solid more often than not. He’s cash viable as the game against the Warriors should be fast-paced and he’ll be on the court most of the game.
Avery Bradley – His 0.80 FP/Min and 21.3% usage rate leave a lot to be desired. However, he should play heavy minutes in a nice pace-up game against the Suns, which are a bottom three team against the two guard. Fire up Bradley in small field GPPs.
James Harden – The Beard has a 34.6% usage rate and is scoring 1.51 FP/Min. The Pacers play at a fast pace and the Rockets are leaning heavily on Harden who is playing well with Chris Paul since his return. Harden likely has the highest ceiling on the entire slate and is my choice over Russell Westbrook, especially if Victor Oladipo is active.
Victor Oladipo – I love the thought of stacking Oladipo with Harden at shooting guard on FanDuel. Although it will be pricey if this is a back and forth game we could grab 100-plus points between the two guards. I would gladly take that type of production and work on piecing together a formidable lineup at the rest of the positions.
Devin Booker – He’s underpriced on FanDuel at $6,900 and has elite upside, as evidenced by his 50-point outburst against the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday. His 26.4% usage rate is not indicative of how he’s been used as of late. Over the last eight games, he’s had a usage rate over 31% in six of the games. As a matter of fact, the only two players on the slate with a higher usage over the last eight games are Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Yes, please!
Wes Matthews – His usage rate is low, his FP/Min is low, and he’s kind of a shell of what he was before his injury a few years ago. However, he’s priced affordably and has a tremendous matchup against the fast-paced Nets. He’s another “volume” play in the same vein as KCP, just a heck of a lot cheaper.
We recently had a $53,333 NBA win by a DFS Member on FanDuel for NBA. If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
Forwards
Harrison Barnes – I love the spot that Harrison Barnes is in. The Nets are not only bad on the defensive end, but their wings resemble The Walking Dead. Barnes is athletic and thrives in these types of games. He’s likely going to hit his 35-minutes per game average, which in this matchup could return a 45-point fantasy night. I love his upside for GPPs and cash games alike.
Paul George – The Magic have been shredded by small forwards as of late and PG13 plays 37.0 minutes per game. If this game stays competitive, George should easily surpass his 23.3% usage rate and return solid value.
Kyle Anderson – He’s only viable on DraftKings on Wednesday because of pricing. His matchup seems terrible and it likely is going to be a lower scoring game. However, these things really do not affect Anderson’s fantasy outlook because he is not very scoring dependent. He’s a solid budget saving lower middle tier option at a week small forward position.
Kristaps Porzingis – His pricetag on DraftKings is delightful. As long as it stays competitive, and it likely will being home at MSG, Porzingis has elite 50-point upside at a discounted price tag. His usage rate is the highest at the power forward/center position on this slate.
Carmelo Anthony – I don’t understand the pricing on FanDuel for Melo’, as his price dropped to $6,200. He’s a strong cash game option as he is averaging 1.01 FP/Min and 32.0 minutes per game. His matchup with the Magic is superb.
Taj Gibson – He played 34-minutes and scored over 30 fantasy points the last time the Timberwolves faced the Pelicans. He will likely play heavy minutes again on Wednesday because his size will be needed to square off with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.
Tobias Harris – His matchup is fantastic as he faces the worst team in the NBA against power forwards. Harris has averaged 0.90 FP/Min this season and in a pace up game, he could greatly exceed that. His price leaves a lot to be desired though so I likely won’t go here outside of a game stack and in a large field tournament.
We broke down the $150,000 NFL win earlier this season. You can read about that gem in this link!
Centers
I am going to break down the centers for our members only in some “pre-game” notes, similar to what the other main coaches do in Slack for our members. Similar to last night, I think this slate is so phenomenal for bankroll building that I don’t want to give out too much here. Sorry!
I have already said too much and that type of analysis and strategy will be kept to our Slack channel (41,000 WEEKLY messages between the 1,500 members and 19 staff that we have logged into Slack).
I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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