11/29
Day Two of the new and (hopefully) improved Flynnie’s Forecheck. I’m going to do a whole slate breakdown for you guys and go by position. Hit me up in Slack and on Twitter (@rflynndfs) with any input, I want to provide the best content for all current and prospective DFS Army members.
I focus on NHL DFS. If hockey isn’t your thing, join anyway we have big winners every week in all sports www.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/. We have the best coaches and contributors in the industry, it really isn’t close.
Take a look that these recent wins:
I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sydney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options, in GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
Today we have four games So everyone will be relatively high owned. You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off, if you are going to take down a massive GPP. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success and even win smaller tournaments. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
My favorite stack of the night is Boston 1: (Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand). They are the top Corsi For line in the league and among the best scoring lines. They also do a terrific job suppressing shots (Corsi Against), so keep that in mind when looking at the Lightning. This line is going to cost you, though. I’ll work on finding value throughout the day. Join www.dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and come see those ideas in Slack.
Tampa Bay1 Steven Stamkos, Vladimir Namestikov, Nikita Kucherov. They have been on the best lines so far this season, but the whole team is in a funk. They are on a B2B and going against Boston’s top line. However, if Rask plays, all bets are off load up on TB.
TB 2 Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, Brayden Pointe. These guys are my TB line of choice tonight, they have a better match up and they are playing better than the top line recently.
St Louis 1 Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Scheen, Jaden Schwartz. They are by far the most productive STL line and they get a match-up against the WORST Corsi Against team in the NHL.
Honorable Mentions: STL 2, MTL 1, WPG 1/PP1, OTT 1
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Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Erik Karlsson
He plays like a forward, so his floor is huge. He will very rarely kill you’re lineup. He’s the most expensive defenseman on the slate, though.
Dustin Byfuglien
He is the power play QB on the #4 ranked PP in the league. The WPG PP is the glaring mismatch in this game. Otherwise this is a battle of teams that don’t do much well. Always keep in mind the Denver travel, it wreaks havoc on teams.
Mikhail Sergachev
He’s on the PP for second TB unit. He is one of the hottest Lightning players and in under-priced on a slate that forces you to dig for value.
Honorable Mentions: Torey Krug, Jacob Trouba, Tyson Barrie
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Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Jake Allen (-196)
Run away chalk here, for good reason. He’s a massive favorite. -160 to -170 I consider a solid favorite, once you approach -200 it’s a boarder line lock and load play. Anaheim is terrible but STL gives up a lot of shots, so if Jake makes the saves, he should have the highest score of the night.
Anton Khudobin (no line yet)
I don’t even know if he’s starting, I’m just hoping. As a Bruins fan and as a DFS player, Rask drives me crazy. TB shoots a ton and they are in a brutal slump and they are the only team on a B2B. If Rask starts, forget this and fire up a TB stack.
Carey Price (-126)
Not a high money line but he is one of the best goalies in the league and should get the win. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to like with goalies. At least, as of this morning.
Pick ’em
It’s the same games as the main slate tonight. So re-read the article or get in the DFS Army and ask questions in Slack.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!
