Like your everyday picks and plays in DFS, your play draft Head to Head matchups are going to follow the same logic. I lock in 50 matchups every week at the $3 slot before I write this article to give you a good idea of who’s being drafted and what to expect
- High scoring totals from explosive offenses
- RB at home have a general advantage
- Game Script
There are two major differences between Snake Drafts and DFS you need to consider:
- There is no need to hunt for value
- Every player you pick represents 20% of your total team, which makes stacking less valuable and correlated than in DFS.
Week 11 has shaped up to be a unique week in how people are drafting. Many of the head to head drafts I’ve seen were against other pros and it was interesting to see their rankings as we drafted. There are more options at all positions this week and less must drafts like we’ve seen in previous weeks. While a few players trended in 100%, many we’re spread out among other options.
Quarterback:
| QB | Projection |
| Brady | 22.24 |
| Wilson | 23.05 |
| Wentz | 19.51 |
| Smith | 18.94 |
Brady & Co have a 32.5 implied team total and this is the one team that doesn’t take it’s foot off the gas. It doesn’t matter if they’re ahead by 1 or 100, they’re pushing to score. We should see ~ 2 TDs in the air at least with Vegas props out this morning putting him at the 24/200 yd mark already. Wilson also has a team total of 25.75 going against a team with no defense for the pass. The biggest difference between Brady and Wilson is that the Seahawks don’t have a running back. They took someone on their practice squad over Lacy. This means TDs are going through the air.
If you feel the need to go outside of these two options, Wentz and Smith are available and decent picks. I caution against Wentz only because all Bears games this season have a slower pace and lower total. Smith has an implied total of 27., but after the stellar coaching vs. New York, who knows what team is going to show up for them. I prefer consistency with Brady and Wilson.
Running Back:
| RB | Projection |
| Bell | 21.13 |
| Gurley | 18.96 |
| Kamara | 15.46 |
| Ingram | 15.71 |
| Coleman | 13.4 |
| McCoy | 18.96 |
Bell is a workhorse and going up against a shattered defense at home. There seems to be more injury news out of the Packers defense every day. Gurley is the chalkiest play on the slate as a consistent workhorse back. New Orleans defense is a little beaten up this week with injuries themselves opening it up for the run. Kamara and Ingram are a coin toss on which one is going to have a great game. Game script would suggest Kamara, but Ingram has been solid/consistent. Coleman should get a lot of touches with Freeman out in a game where they’re projected to be ahead by 16.5. McCoy is projected to do well, but I’m not a fan of RB on the road going into KC. Plus you aren’t going to need to go that deep.
Wide Receiver:
| WR | Projection |
| Brown | 18.11 |
| Cooks | 13.2 |
| Thomas | 13.7 |
| Jones | 15.53 |
| Baldwin | 13.53 |
| Gronk | 13.84 |
| Kelce | 14.16 |
| Jeffery | 11.32 |
| Matthews | 10.23 |
With JuJu out, Brown should be the main target beneficiary if you needed any more reason to roster him. With Hogan out, Cooks and Gronk should continue to see an uptick in work. Yes, Gronk did nothing last week and killed your lineups, but Gronk gonna Gronk at some point. Thomas has been super consistent and if you’re not going with a RB from the Saints, he’s a great option at WR. Jones is apparently “cleared from injury” this week. He has been seeing a lot of opportunity and passes. If he converts on most of them, he’ll get the job done. If he gets into the end zone, it’ll be a big week. Seattle also likes to spread the ball around, but Baldwin should see an uptick in targets assuming the 49ers can stop the TE. Kelce is a sneaky play this week since the wind was so heavy in NY last week. Vegas seems to think KC with score 3+ TDs, so they must come from somewhere. Jeffery is in a revenge game going up against his old team. I would expect him to get plenty of targets and opportunity in this slow paced game. If Rishard Matthews plays, he’s consistently getting a lot of targets and playing well. He’s in a solid match up this week.
Strategy:
Picking First:
Lock in Bell and first pump. In a game where they should be 7 miles ahead, Bell sho0uld continue to get the rock and pick up garbage time points when Ben doesn’t have to throw anymore. Assuming Gurley & Brown are off the board, you can go two ways:
- Fork one: WR/WR: You don’t need to pick a RB next because with Gurley gone, the next 4 are really in the same tier unless there is one you really want over other options.
- Fork two: WR/QB: This is your chance to grab your pick of the litter and pre-determine the rest of your line up. For example, if you grab Brady, you’re not getting Cooks or Gronk. If you grab Wilson, you’re skipping Baldwin, etc.
Picking Second:
Your first picks should be Gurley and Brown. If your opponent for some odd reason didn’t grab Bell, go Bell/Gurley. After this you’ll two different decisions to make:
- Fork one: WR/QB if your opponent didn’t take one. Same reasons as above plus you get the bonus of giving your opponent the opportunity to make a mistake. For example, if he grabbed Bell/Cooks/Ingram, you would want to grab Wilson/Jones. Now he’s left with either taking Brady and stacking his team or dropping down to Wentz/Smith. For receivers he’s forced to pass on Gronk and either Kelce/Jeffery depending on his QB selection or face stacking his team.
- Fork Two: WR/RB: Like when picking first, picking up a second RB before the last pick isn’t necessary this week with solid options between the last 4
General thoughts:
- Stacking Bell/Brown the previous weeks continues to be a disaster. I wouldn’t do it, but this week I wouldn’t let your opponent do it either. It’s a week where the Steelers will have the ability to score at will on offense and we will see a lot of 3 and outs by the Packers this week.
- Opponents will make a lot of stacking mistakes this week. The NO/LA game is too juicy and NE team total is too high. Make smart pivots. You can go to AJ Green if you wanted to at home in a divisional game. He’s just not part of my personal core.
