Like your everyday picks and plays in DFS, your play draft Head to Head matchups are going to follow the same logic. I lock in 50 matchups every week at the $3 slot before I write this article to give you a good idea of who’s being drafted and what to expect
- High scoring totals from explosive offenses
- RB at home have a general advantage
- Game Script
There are two major differences between Snake Drafts and DFS you need to consider:
- There is no need to hunt for value
- Every player you pick represents 20% of your total team, which makes stacking less valuable and correlated than in DFS.
Week 10 is a very different landscape that the previous few weeks. There are more targets outside of the top 1-3 choices that represent good value, opportunity, and play-ability. The strategies used this week are going to be slightly different than previous weeks because of this and what I’ve seen in my own match ups this week.
QB:
| QB | Projection |
| Stafford | 17.47 |
| Prescott | 18.9 |
| Ryan | 18.57 |
Stafford is the chalk cash play this week with a solid floor which for some reason has made everyone forget about Prescott. Vegas totals as of this writing has nearly every game’s total trending down. ATL v. DAL opened at 53 and is down to 48 for example. Stafford re[resents some consistency this week vs. the Browns defense with multiple competent options to throw to & a running game to spread the field out. I still like Dak and Ryan in one of the two highest projected match ups this week even without Elliot.
Let’s talk about the other 48 point projected game this week with Brees and Co. vs. the Bills. If you listened to the pods and read through a lot of the articles this week, the consensus in the Army is this game is going to play to the under. His Home/Road splits aren’t the best and he has a RBBC in the back field that is clamoring for goal line work taking away some fantasy goodness. He hasn’t melded with any specific receiver this season and the Bills secondary isn’t the Buccaneers. It makes most sense to target the QBs in games with the highest projected totals and safe floors then.
RB:
| RB | Projection |
| Bell | 23.99 |
| Fournette | 19.13 |
| Gurley | 20.15 |
| Howard | 16.77 |
| Gordon | 16.65 |
Bell is your top option this week. He often sees 30+ touches and in a game that could be a blow out, he could see a lot more work. Fournette and Gurley are interchangeable here for me. People were taking Fournette over Gurley most of the time, so it made sense to move him up a slot. He’s also coming off a lot of rest and is in a good matchup on paper. Howard is in a nice spot as well at home and are favored which is a great spot for him. However he’s failed to really produce fantastic numbers all season. Gordon rounds out the list a player that’s going to be missed in most formats. I don’t have an opinion either way on him for H2H this week and I have some shares of him.
WR:
| WR | Projection |
| Green | 13.96 |
| Brown | 19.93 |
| Gronk | 13.43 |
| Jones | 15.88 |
| Tate | 12.94 |
| Shepard | 12 |
| Sanu | 10.74 |
Welcome to garbage town. Green is in a great spot this week and Brown is always in play. They’re both ranked 1/1 this week. If you’re picking first and getting Bell, grab Green. If they grab Bell, try to grab Brown. I threw Gronk in here as the third option because Denver is a classic funnel TE defense and we’re expecting him to get targets & in the end zone. Jones or Sanu are solid plays this week with Sanu having a more solid track record, but no break out games. Assuming Julio is healthy, he’s in a good spot to make value this week.
Tate & Shepard are your “I’m tired of rostering the top guys and getting burned” plays this week. If Stafford is the chalk play, his #1 WR is also a correlated smart play. Let everyone else make the mistake on MJJ this week who has always been Boom or Bust. He could get 1.1 points or 30 this week. Shepard is going to see targets and opportunity against a terrible defense. He won’t get you 30, but he should get you 8-10.
Strategy this week:
This week is going to be different than in the past. It’s going to be entirely based on what your opponent is doing and who they’re drafting so you don’t corner yourself into a spot of stacking this week outside of Bell/Brown. Yes, a Bell/Brown stack is fine this week, but I personally did not do it nor will. I wouldn’t fault you for going that route though.
This is the first week where the bulk of my drafts didn’t go in a predictable order. In fact, my opponent teams this week are all over the place. While the people you would expect dominated the shares picked, there was more variety this week than I have seen all season.
Drafting First:
- Fist pump and grab Bell for all the reasons every tout and site has mentioned this week. After this really depends on what your opponent did. People have caught on and are drafting RB/RB more often than I’ve seen in previous weeks.
- Fork one: They went RB/RB. That’s fine, go WR/QB. You have your pick of receivers at this point & the ability to lock in mega chalk QB Stafford. Here’s your chance to go 40% Steelers if you want, go back to the well with Green, or go different with Gronk.
- Fork two: They went QB/RB. Go RB/WR. QB can wait to the end like the beginning of the season since it’s already locked out. This will give you the shot at Fournette or Gurley and dealers choice at WR.
- Fork three: They went RB/WR. Go RB/QB. WR is hit or miss where QB is a predictable value. This was the rarest drafting pattern of the three.
Drafting Second:
- It really depends on who your opponent drafted first. Not everyone went Bell. 22% of the time, they went Fournette first. Some went Stafford first. One guy went with Gurley first.
- Fork One: RB/RB. This is my suggested fork this week when picking second. Two punch combo of Bell/Gurley/Fournette should give you the highest starting floor in your match up this week.
- Fork Two: RB/QB. If you’re planning on going outside the box with your receivers and even your RB, this fork works best. You get your pick of QBs off the bat & you’re locking in at least one of the top RBs. If you feel there’s a better option at RB, this will give you the most value.
- Fork three: RB/WR. If you want to lock in Brown, this is the route you must go. Considering how inconsistent WRs are this year, it’s my least favorite choice. I wouldn’t fault you for going this route, it’s just not one I’m going to use.
Bell/Brown stack
- It’s worked 2/8 times this year or 25% of the time.
- They have a 27.5 implied total this week, or just shy of 4 touch downs. JuJu Smith is a factor for taking points off the board and so is their defense.
There are a lot of “if” scenarios going into this one to make this work. If Bell and Brown both get TDs. If JuJu Smith isn’t as big of a factor. If the Defense isn’t a big factor. I don’t personally like “Ifs” in my line ups for cash. On paper this is a week where this could work though. It’s your call.
