Here is your weekly sharp line analysis for week 11.
TB @ MIA
The big thing here is the total. It opened at 40 points but now stands at 43.5. There is some movement in the odds in favor of TB, and I think the sharps are involved but analysis is inconclusive. The line did move in favor of TB from a PICK to TB -2.
DFS Takeaway: This game seems to be playing to the over and the TB offense gets the biggest bump.
ARI @ HOU
This game is interesting in that zona opened as 1.5 point favorites but now stand as 2.5 point dogs. That is a massive move. The total has dropped slightly from 38.5 to 38.
DFS Takeaway: Sharps seem to be on Houston in a low total game. I suppose a one-off for Houston is not out of the question. The defenses could be in play.
DET @ CHI
The total is the biggest takeaway yet again. The total opened at 44 but has dropped to 40.5. I have heard of some bets on chicago +3 but tough to know just how much the sharps are on the Bears.
DFS Takeaway: Low total and tight spread could make the defenses playable. I wouldn’t get involved too heavily on the offenses. Chicago tends to make it tough on its visitors.
JAX @ CLE
The total is not impressive and headed the wrong way. It opened as a 38 and stands at 37 after a recent drop this morning. Sharps are also on the Browns. The line opened with the Jags as 7.5 pt favorites. Now they are only 7 pt favorites. Further to that though, I even have seen some love for Cleveland outright.
DFS Takeaway: Jacksonville is likely missing some key cogs on offense. This seems like a stay away situation for me in a low total game. There are just better spots.
LA @ MIN
The matchup everyone wants to see. The spread opened as Vikings -2 but now it’s Vikings -1.5. That isn’t monumental news but there was some big money placed overnight on the Vikings to win.
DFS Takeaway: Both offenses are in play, as we knew; but; if you have a tough time figuring which way to go, you can always follow the money.
BAL @ GB
Sharps are on the Ravens in a low total game, although the total did rise slightly from 38 to 38.5. The line even rose from Bal -1 to Bal -2.
DFS Takeaway: You need to be able to run the ball against the ravens to win and the Packers are missing their top 2 running backs. There are still better spots than the Ravens offense so don’t invest too much time here. It’s a one-off at best.
WAS @ NO
While the spread rose this week from NO -7.5 to NO -9.5, there was some big money getting behind the skins this morning. The total has risen from 50 to 52.5. Nuff said.
DFS Takeaway: This is looking like one of those game stack situations with the Redskins being the lower-owned side of things. If making multiple lineups, maybe you will want to try it both ways
BUF @ LAC
The Chargers began the week as 4 point favorites. Thanks to some suspect coaching decisions, the Chargers find themselves favorited by a touchdown. The total dropped from 43.5 to 41.5
DFS Takeaway: The total drop is more of an indictment on the Buffalo’s prospects in this game, rather than an indictment on the game as a whole. Chargers offense is in a great spot facing a team — on the road, mind you — that has given up massive points the last 2 weeks. The Chargers defense is in a great spot, too.
CIN @ DEN
This game makes the write-up because of the road team playing its 3rd consecutive road game narrative. Teams who are playing their 3rd road game in a row have seen the game reach the OVER 67% of the time in the past 12 seasons. What makes this even sneakier is that this is a low total so people will stay away from this one.
DFS Takeaway: You can mix in a player from either offense at low ownership as both of these offenses are more likely than not to see better than expected production.
PHI @ DAL
This is vegas’s most popular game of the week and the money is going HEAVILY the way of the Eagles. The line has jumped to PHI -6.
DFS Takeaway: Both offenses are in play but the bets see Philly winning handily.
That’s all I got for this week. Stay tuned to Staff for any late breaking news, notes, and line movements.
Good luck in week 11, Army!
