Here is your weekly sharp line analysis for week 10.
PIT @ IND
Sharps are in love with Pittsburgh. They are on them to win and on them to go over their implied team total (ITT) of 27.5. The game total has risen this week from 43 to 45.5. Considering that Pitt has UNDER-whelmed this year (7-1 on games finishing on the under), this is high praise in this spot. The spread, which opened at Steelers -10.5, has dropped to Steelers -10.
DFS Takeaway: This is definitely a stack situation for the Steelers offense. A double digit line is tough to cover, especially on the road. I won’t be recommending the Steelers defense as a play except in GPP. There are defenses I like better. An Indy one-off is not out of the question.
CIN @ TEN
Coming into this week it was a bit of a tale of two teams heading very different directions. Cincy was literally fighting their way to the bottom, while Tennessee was enjoying a bit of a renaissance. The Titans opened as 5.5 point favorites as a result. If Lee Corso were here he would say “Not so fast, my friend!”. As I write this, the books just got done adjusting the line. The Titans are now 4 point favorites. There is also large money coming in on Cincy to win outright. The total has risen a ½ point to 41.
DFS Takeaway: The titans are being looked at to underperform their ITT and the Bengals to overperform. This should be a low owned spot for the Bengals all around. I even think the Bengals could be a viable defense.
MIN @ WAS
Minnesota is favored on the road by 2 1 points. The public is on Washington, but the sharps are on the Vikings. Despite the total for this game dropping from 42.5 to 41, over the course of the week, both teams seem like they are favored to go over their ITT.
DFS Takeaway: I don’t know if this is a game stack waiting to happen but both offenses seem in play here. Minnesota has given up 16 to Cleveland and 17 to Chicago on the road. If this game were in Minnesota I might stay away but in Washington I think both sides are viable. I am not touching the defenses.
NO @ BUF
Despite being favored on the road, the public likes Buffalo more. The sharps are getting behind Buffalo, now, too. The spread has dropped from Saints -3 to Saints -2. The total for the game only dipped slightly from 48.5 to 48 so nothing to worry about on that front.
DFS Takeaway: With a 48 total, obviously, a game stack is playable. The buffalo heavy side is more enticing. What I mean by that is Tyrod + Buf player + NO player. Don’t feel you have to get into this game at that level but I do like its chances of working out.
CLE @ DET
The line opened up as DET -13. As I said before, it is really hard to cover a double digit spread. Sharps know this. The moneyline for Detroit has dropped 110 points to -450 and the line has dropped from 13 points to 10.5. Originally, sharps thought that Detroit would eclipse their ITT of 27.5, but there has been some recent money coming in that says they won’t.
DFS Takeaway: Is there a chance that detroit covers? Sure. Historical records say that the Browns cover, though. The question you need to answer is how well does Detroit make out in all of this. Proceed with caution.
DAL @ ATL
The sharps are coming in on Atlanta. The line has increased from 3 to 3.5 and the sharps are pumping the moneyline in their favor a little bit. The total has come down from 50 to 49, also.
DFS Takeaway: This is one of the more uncertain outcomes we have seen in terms of line movements but it does figure to be a close game and seems to be tipping the Falcons way. Both offenses are in play, as expected.
NYG @ SF
The sharps are loving the Giants. They opened as 1 pt dogs but now stand favored by 3.
DFS Takeaway: The sharps love the Giants to overperform today, as well. The Giants offense and defense are in play in a low total game. I think I am staying away from SF.
That’s all I got for this week. Stay tuned to Staff for any late breaking news, notes, and line movements.
Good luck in week 10, Army!
