Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 8 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Kirk Cousins who ended up with 12.52 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2x value! For our running back free square we had Joe Mixon who ended up with 12.90 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.7x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Pierre Garcon who ended up with 3.7 DKFP which was good enough .6x value. For our tight end free square we had Jordan Reed who ended up with 1.50 DKFP which was good enough for .3x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Seattle Seahawks who ended up with 13 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.1x value.
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Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week seven the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Houston Texans (31.0), the New Orleans Saints (28.5), and the Seattle Seahawks (26.3) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Cincinnati Bengals (17.5), Denver Broncos (17.8), and the Indianapolis Colts (18.0). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Dak Prescott QB DAL ($6,700)
- Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will take on the Kansas City Chiefs this week at home this week. The Cowboys have an implied total sitting at right around 28.3-points and they are currently 2.5 point favorites. In his last 5 games, Dak has provided the following values: 4.0x, 3.8x, 4.5x, 4.1x and 1.0x values. He gets a matchup against the Chiefs this week who are allowing the 22nd most YPA, and they are giving up the 29th most total passing yards per game. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see Dak has the following stats this season: 222 Pass YDS/GM, 32.3 Pass ATTs/ GM, 14 Pass TDs, 2.6 Deep Ball ATT/GM, 4.2 Air YDS/GM, 3 Rush TDs, and 21 FPPGs. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that Dak has a projection of right around 21.58 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.22x value. I love Dak this week as I think he has a great matchup and is at an affordable price. I am going to load up on him as my quarterback on Draftkings this week.
- Lamar Miller RB HOU ($6,200)
- Lamar Miller and the Houston Texans will take on the Indianapolis Colts this week at home. The Texans have an implied total sitting at right around 26.5-points and they are currently 7.0-point favorites. Lamar has had the following values in his last 5 games: 1.5x, 6.5x, 2.2x, 2.1x, and 4.3x. He goes up against the Colts rushing defense who are giving up 4.1 rushing yards per attempt. They have also given up the 19th most rushing yards this season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Miller has the following stats: 64% OPP/Share, 79% Snap/Share, 20% Dominator Rating, 17 Carries/GM, 61 Rush YDS/GM, 3.6 Rush YDS/Carry, 4 TDs, 3 Targets/GM, and right around 14.9 FPPG. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 16.97 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.73x value. With the news of the Deshaun Watson injury, I think Houston is going to be pounding the ball more than usual. This should allow for more carries for Lamar Miller this week. He is one of my favorites backs on the board this week. Load him up on Draftkings this week.
- T.Y. Hilton WR IND ($4,900)
- T.Y. Hilton and the Indianapolis Colts will take on the Houston Texans on the road this week. The Colts have an implied total sitting at right around 19.5-points and they are currently 7.0-point underdogs. T.Y. has returned the following values in his last 5 games this year: 1.0x, 4.6x, .4x, .8x, and .6x. The Houston Texans have given up the 22nd most total passing yards per game, and they have given up 27th most passing yards per attempt. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Hilton has the following numbers this season: 12.3% HOG Rating, 23.4% Slot Rate, 96% Snap/Share, 7 Targets/GM, 3.6 REC/GM, 65.9 YDS/GM, 1.55 FPTS/Target, and 11.6 FPPG. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of 13.293 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.71x value. I know Hilton has not produced much in his last couple games but I think this is a good spot for them. The Colts are going to need to pass the ball to stay in this one and the Texans do not have a solid passing defense. He is affordable and always brings upside. Lock Hilton in as a value wide receiver on Draftkings.
- Evan Engram TE NYG ($5,600)
- Evan Engram and the New York Giants will take on the Los Angeles Rams at home this week. The Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 19.0-points and they are currently 4.0-point underdogs. Evan Engram has returned the following values in his last 5-games this season: 3.0x, 4.1x, 0, 5.1x, and a 4.1x. Engram and the Giants are going to take on the Rams pass defense who have given up 205.0 total yards per game and 6.3 Yards per attempt. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that we can Engram has the following numbers this season: 15.7% HOG Rating, 5.4% Slot Rating, 82% Snap SHare, 7.6 Targets/GM, 4.3 REC/GM, 48.9 RECYDS/GM, 1.55 FPTS/Target, 3 TDs, and 11.7 FPPG. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection for right around 15.97 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.87x value. Engram is one of the pricier tight ends this week but I love the spot he is in. Load him up as a tight end on Draftkings.
- Philadelphia Eagles PHI DST ($3,300)
- The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Denver Broncos at home this week. The Broncos have an implied total sitting at right around 17.3-points and the Eagles are currently 7.5 point favorites. The Eagles defense has returned the following values in their last 5-games: 1.2x, 2.6x, 2.5x, 2.1x, and 5.3x. The Broncos offense has had the following numbers so far this season: 216 Pass Yards, 123 Rush Yards, 3.6 sacks allowed, 1.0 Fumbles allowed, 17.3 PPG, 13.1 fantasy points Allowed, and 1.4 interceptions allowed. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 8.42 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.55x value. The Eagles have been one of my favorite DFS defenses this year and they have a great matchup against the Broncos this week. Load them up as your defense on Draftkings this week.
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The NFL season is rolling right along and we have a ton of big tournaments ahead of us for the week. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dak Prescott this week! Good luck Army!
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