Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
For our free squares last night we had Donovan Mitchell who ended up with right around 17.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.9x value. Our second free square was Tyreke Evans who ended up with right around 38.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.2x value. Our last free square of the night is Ben Simmons who ended up with right around 51.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.9x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter slate ahead of us for Wednesday with 5 games on the docket. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Golden State Warriors (120), Orlando Magic (112), and the Minnesota Timberwolves (110). The highest priced players of the night are Kevin Durant, Kristaps Porzingis, and Stephen Curry.
Free Squares
- Reggie Jackson PG DET ($6,000)
- Reggie Jackson and the Detroit Pistons will take on the Indiana Pacers at home tonight. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. The Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 99.3 and the Pacers have been playing at a pace of right around 103.0. This will be a pace-up game for the Pistons tonight which should benefit Jackon and the entire Pistons roster. He is likely to be matched up against Darren Collison tonight who is one of the worst defending point guards on the slate tonight. Reggie has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 28.5 MPG, 3.7 MPG, 6.3 APG, 1.2 STLPG, 15.5 PPG, 31.6 FPPG, and a 1.11 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection sitting at right around 31.23 which would be good enough for right around 5.12x value. He is slated for right around 29 minutes. I think Reggie has a great price and great matchup tonight. He is averaging a pretty solid FPPM right now and has some upside against a bad defender tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier value on Draftkings tonight.
- Evan Fournier SG/SF ($6,700)
- Evan Fournier and the Orlando Magic will take on the New York Knicks tonight at home. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and they are currently 5.5-point favorites. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 105.2 and the Knicks have been playing at a pace of right around 100.4. This will be a bit of a pace down game for the Magic but I love the matchup for the team tonight. Fournier will likely be matched up against Courtney Lee tonight who is not a great defender at all. I think Fournier should be able to exploit this matchup tonight. He has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 33.6 MPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, .2 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 20.3 PPG, 34.5 MPG, and a 1.03 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 31.116 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.64x value. Fournier is slated for right around 34 minutes. I love this matchup and price for Fournier tonight. I am a little bit higher on him then the Domination Station tonight as I think he exceeds his value tonight. Load him up as either a guard or forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Aaron Baynes PF/C BOS ($3,500)
- Aaron Baynes and the Boston Celtics will take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home tonight. The Celtics have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they have an implied total sitting at right around 8.5-point favorites. The Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 99.1 and the Lakers have been playing at right around 107.2. We have one of the slowest teams in the league going up against one of the fastest teams tonight. This should provide a lot of extra fantasy opportunities for Baynes tonight. Baynes is likely to be matched up against Brook Lopez who is not a solid defender at all. Baynes has the following stats on the season thus far: 19.0 MPG, 5.5 RPG, .8 APG, .7 BLKPG, .3 STLPG, 5.8 PPG, 15.6 FPPG, and a .82 FPPM. Baynes is going to see an increase in minutes tonight with the Horford injury. I think we can expect Baynes to get us 6x+ value tonight at his super low price. I think Baynes is going to get a decent amount of minutes, has a great matchup, a pace-up game, and has a bottom barrel price. Load him up as a value power forward or center tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We finally have a decent sized slate with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Reggie Jackson tonight! Good luck Army!
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