Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
For our free squares last night we started off with Joel Embiid who managed to net 41.75 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5x value. Our second free square was Harrison Barnes who ended up with right around 42 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.6x value. Our last free square was Shelvin Mack who ended up getting right around 21.75 DKFP which was right around 5.7x value.
Tonight
We have a short 4-game slate ahead of us for Saturday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Golden State Warriors (119), Minnesota Timberwolves (113), and the Denver Nuggets (110). The highest priced players of the night are DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, and Kevin Durant.
Free Squares
- Draymond Green PF/C PHI ($7,200)
- Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors will take on the Denver Nuggets on the road tonight. The Warriors have an implied total sitting at right around 119-points and they are currently 9.0-point favorites. The Warriors have been playing a pace at around 104.1 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.4. This will be a slight pace-down game for the Warriors but I still like the matchup for Draymond tonight. He is most likely to be guarded by Paul Millsap who is the 4th best power forward defender on the slate tonight. He has the following stats so far this season: 30.3 MPG, 7.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.1 STLPG, 9.3 PPG, 33.0 PPG, and a 1.09 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 39.506 DKFP which is good enough for right around 5.49x value. Draymond has struggled to score this year a bit but he fills up the stat sheet in so many other categories. I think he has a great shot of exceeding value tonight. I love him as either a forward or a center tonight on Draftkings.
- Harrison Barnes SF/PF DAL ($5,800)
- Harrison Barnes and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight on the road. The Mavericks have an implied total sitting at right around 101-points and are currently 12.5-point favorites. The Mavericks are playing at a pace of right around 99.3 and the Timberwolves are playing at a pace of right around 102.9. This will be a pace-up game for the slow Mavericks which will help out fantasy-wise tonight. Barnes is likely to be matched up against Jimmy Butler tonight who is a solid defender but I expect Barnes to be matched up by a number of different players tonight. Barnes has the following stats so far this season: 35.1 MPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, .1 BLKPG, 17.3 PPG, 29.4 FPPG, and a .84 FPPM. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.875 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.08x value. He is slated to see what around 35 minutes. We played Barnes and hit on him last night. I think I am going to go back to the well again tonight. Barnes plays a ton of minutes and will have all he can handle tonight. Load him up at either forward positions tonight on Draftkings.
- David Nwaba PG/SG CHI ($3,900)
- David Nwaba and the Chicago Bulls will take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight at home. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 96-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 98.1 and the Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 104.2. This will be a pace up game for Nwaba which should allow him some extra fantasy opportunities. He is most likely going to be matched up against Dante Cunningham tonight who is one of the worst defenders on the board tonight. Nwaba has the following stats on the season so far this year: 21.1 MPG, 5.7 RPG, .9 APG, .7 STLPG, 6.9 PPG, 18.2 FPPG, and a .86 FPPM. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.982 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.78x value. He is slated to see right around 27 minutes. I am much higher on Nwaba then the Domination Station is tonight and I think he will crush his value tonight. Load him up as a cheap value play on at either guard position Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
This is a medium-sized slate but one I think we can still find an edge on. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Draymond Green tonight! Good luck Army!
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