Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our free squares fared last night. Our first free square of the night was Harrison Barnes who ended up with 39.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.5x value. Our second free square of the night was Rajon Rondo who ended up with 15.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value. Our final free square was Michael Carter-Williams who ended up with 21.50 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.1x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter sized slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: Cleveland Cavaliers (111), Denver Nuggets (110), and the Boston Celtics (110). The highest priced players on the slate are Lebron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid.
Free Squares
- Taurean Prince SG/SF ATL ($4,800)
- Tauren Prince and the Atlanta Hawks will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight at home. The Hawks have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 7.5-point underdogs. The Hawks have been playing at a pace of right around 101.0 and the Cavaliers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.5. Both these teams play at roughly the same pace which shouldn’t have any net effect on the fantasy opportunities tonight. Prince is likely going to be guarded by LeBron James tonight who is the top wing defender on the board tonight. Even with the difficult matchup I still expect Prince to exceed value. He has the following stats on the season so far this season: 30.6 MPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.4 STLPG, 12.6 PPG, 26.1 FPPG, and a .85 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.445 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.13x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes. The Domination Station really likes Prince tonight and I am also on board. He is a great value play who is going to see a ton of minutes tonight. Load him up at either forward or guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Ben Simmons PG/SF PHI ($9,300)
- Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Boston Celtics on the road tonight. The 76ers have an implied total sitting at right around 101-points and they are currently 9.0-point underdogs. The 76ers have been playing at a pace of right around 105.7 and the Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 99.7. This is going to be a pace down for the 76ers tonight, but I still think Simmons is in a good spot to crush his value tonight. Simmons is likely going to be guarded by Al Horford who is a solid defender but might have some trouble containing Simmons tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 35.2 MPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.2 APG, .8 BLKPG, 2.1 STLPG, 18.7 PPG, 46.8 FPPG and a 1.33 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 48.97 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.27x value. He is projected to see right around 38 minutes tonight. This should be a good game tonight in which Simmons is going to play a ton of minutes to keep this one close. He fills up the stat sheet in so many different categories that I like him tonight despite playing against a good defensive team. He is one of my favorite high-priced players tonight and I think he is underpriced. Load him up as either a forward or a guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Lauri Markkanen PF CHI ($6,400)
- Lauri Markkanen and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Denver Nuggets on the road tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right 100-points and they are currently 10.5-point underdogs. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 100.1 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.9. This is a pace neutral game because both teams play at almost an identical pace. Markkanen is likely going to be matched up against Kenneth Faried tonight who is the worst power forward defender on the slate tonight. Markkanen has the following stats on the season so far: 30.3 MPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.5 APG, .6 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 14.3 PPG, 30.1 FPPG, and a .99 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 35.682 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.58x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes. I think Markkanen is going to expose Faried and put together a solid game tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier power-forward tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Taurean Prince tonight! Good luck Army!
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