Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our free squares fared last night. Our first free square of the night was Omri Casspi who ended up with 16.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.4x value. Our second free square of the night was Harrison Barnes who ended up with 28.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.2x value. Our final free square was Chris Paul who ended up with 37 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.7x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: Minnesota Timberwolves (109), Cleveland Cavaliers (107), Chicago Bulls (107). The highest priced players on the slate are as follows: LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl Anthony-Towns.
Free Squares
- Eric Bledsoe PG/SG MIL ($6,600)
- Eric Bledsoe and the Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Sacramento Kings tonight on the road. The Bucks have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 7.0-point favorites. The Bucks have been playing at a pace of right around 99.2 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 97.8. Both of these teams play at a slow pace so I don’t think it will be that big of a negative fantasy wise for Bledsoe tonight. Bledsoe is likely to be guarded by rookie De’Aaron Fox tonight who is a horrible defender so far this year with a -3.15 DRPM. Bledsoe should be able to take it to him tonight on the offensive end. Bledsoe has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 30.1 MPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, .8 BLKPG, 1.8 STLPG, 15.3 PPG, 30.9 FPPG, and a 1.03 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 34.673 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.25x value. He is projected to see right around 33 minutes tonight. Bledsoe is going up against one of the worst defensive point guards in the league tonight. I think he is going to have a great offensive game along with filling up the stat sheet in other categories. Load him up as a mid-priced guard with a lot of upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Tim Frazier PG WSH ($4,100)
- Tim Frazier and the Washington Wizards will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at home. The Wizards have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Wizards have been playing at a pace of right around 102.0 and the Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 101.8. These teams play at almost the same speed. Frazier is most likely going to be guarded by Jeff Teague who is an above average defender. Frazier has the following stats on the season so far this year: 17.1 MPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, .2 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 3.6 PPG, 13.9 FPPG, and a .81 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 24.922 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.08x value. He is projected to see right around 31 minutes. There is nothing that really stands out about the matchup for Frazier tonight, but he is cheap and going to get all the minutes he can handle with Wall being injured. He is a starting point-guard who is going to see 30+ minutes tonight at a price of $4,100. Load him up as a value guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Kevin Love PF/C CLE ($7,200)
- Kevin Love and the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Miami Heat tonight at home. The Cavaliers have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. The Cavs have been playing at a pace of right around 101.6 and the Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0. Slight pace down game for the Cavs and Kevin Love but I still like the spot he is in tonight. Love is likely going to be matched up against Hassan Whiteside tonight who is the best center defender on the board. Love has the following stats on the season so far this year: 29.4 MPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, .5 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 17.7 PPG, 36.3 FPPG, and a 1.23 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 37.904 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.27x value. He is projected to see right around 31 minutes tonight. This is kind of an interesting spot for Kevin Love tonight. Whiteside’s status is still up in there air for tonight and if he doesn’t go or is limited Love almost becomes a must play for me tonight. He is underpriced tonight for having as solid of FPPM as he does. Load him up as an affordable forward or center tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Eric Bledsoe tonight! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
