11/30
Day Three of the new and (hopefully) improved Flynnie’s Forecheck. I’m going to do a whole slate breakdown for you guys and go by position. Hit me up in Slack and on Twitter (@rflynndfs) with any input, I want to provide the best content for all current and prospective DFS Army members.
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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sydney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options, in GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
Today we have seven games. Ownership will be relatively spread out. You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
With the news recently breaking that Cam Talbot will be on the shelf for the foreseeable future, it’s time to stack up Toronto. The top line of Matthews, Marner and Hyman is where I will start but all three of the top lines are viable. EDM is the worst team in the league on the PK. So mix and match the Leafs by using their PP units.
Nashville line 1 Arvidsson, Forsberg, Johansen: Vancouver is solid defensively. They do most of their damage by slowing the game down. However, Vancouver is middle of the pack on the PK and NSH is #3 on the PP. These three also work together on the top PP unit.
Chicago 1: Saad, Toews, Panik 2: Schmaltz, Kane, Anisimov: On paper this doesn’t look great. Dallas is the best team in the league at shot suppression and solid on the PK. Chicago is scheduled to score over three goals tonight and these games tend to be very high scoring. The top line for Dallas gives up a lot of shots so there is an edge that I believe will go overlooked.
Washington 1: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson:
They are one of the top lines on the slate and the top line for LAK gives up a lot of shots.
Honorable Mentions: CGY 1, CGY 2, MTL 2, MTL 3, EDM 1, VAN 1, VAN 2
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Klingberg: Always solid for shooting, scoring, ice time, PP time and the Stars are projected to be in a shootout.
Ekman-Larsson: Only Coyote worth anything from a fantasy perspective but he is one of the top scoring defensemen in the league. If you don’t play Mike Smith, get some OEL exposure.
Carlson: Fire up all the Caps you can tonight, especially the top scoring D-man on that team.
Honorable Mentions: Doughty, Josi, Ekholm, Rutta, Hamilton, Zaitsev
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Rinne (-178): He has one of the highest money lines on the slate and Vancouver doesn’t shoot the puck much and has the lowest implied total on the slate. However NSH’s top two lines aren’t the best at shot suppression so he should see a decent number of shots and the win is very likely.
Smith (-195): He has the highest money line and facing the second lowest ITT. Arizona is known to be pesky, but I don’t see CGY losing this game.
There aren’t a lot of great options again tonight, but these two will definitely be the ones I have the most exposure to.
Pick ‘Em
The Pick ‘Em slate includes all games but the WAS-LAK game. Just like on the main slate, my targets will be CHI, NSH, TOR, DAL and CGY.
I have a few value plays in mind. If you want access to those get into the DFS Army. We have the best coaches and contributors in the business. And the top-notch Slack chat.
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Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!
