PlayDraft DFS NFL Week 7 VIP Strategy and Player Picks by UW81
Similar to your everyday picks and plays in DFS, your play draft Head to Head matchups are going to follow the same logic.
- High scoring totals from explosive offenses
- RB at home have a general advantage
- Game Script
There are two major differences between Snake Drafts and DFS you need to consider:
- There is no need to hunt for value
- Every player you pick represents 20% of your total team, which makes stacking less valuable and correlated than in DFS.
Week 7 brings a lot more challenges than usual: There are a lot of players hurt and good players in bad spots that are potential landmines we need to keep in mind when picking players this week
QB:
- Tom Brady (Clear #1)
- Prescott
- Brees
- Ryan*
Brady is in a prime position this week and just like in Geeks picks this week, he’s an all in call on PlayDraft as well. We have him projected 2.13 points ahead of any other QB on the slate which doesn’t sound like a lot, but in reality, it’s an extra ~11% advantage. It’s enough of an edge to want to grab him if you can. Prescott is a solid #2 pick going up against the 49ers defense. If you want to consider other QBs this week, Ryan is the more volatile of the lot. Patriots defense couldn’t stop a fat kid in dodgeball this year, but the Falcons offense hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire either like it should be.
RB:
- Elliot
- Bell
- Gurley
- McCoy
All 4 are a toss up. While Bell is matchup proof, CIN v. PIT games always have odd outcomes vs. what should happen on paper. The game also carries a total of 40.5 which is down from it’s open of 42. The game is tied for the second-lowest total on the slate. Gurley and McCoy @ home are in better spots on paper and personally, I’m grabbing Elliot before Bell this week.
WR:
- Jones
- Green
- Brown
- Dez
- Thomas
- Evans
- Thomas
I mentioned Jones isn’t really a #1 WR anymore, so why is he #1 on my sheet this week? Partially because I’m insane and partially because NE can’t stop anyone. Julio is in an amazing spot on paper this week and if he’s going to go off, it’s this week or bust. Green does historically well in the divisional matchup. Brown is third because he usually doesn’t do well in this division matchup, however, there are whispers of Adam Jones being doubtful. If Jones sits, Brown immediately becomes a better play. However again, the game is touting one of the lowest totals of the week and I would rather look elsewhere. Dez is in a blow-up spot but with so much offensive power, it’s difficult to trust grabbing him when we’re considering floors. In all of my H2H matchups, he was only drafted twice so far, both times by me as the last WR pick. Thomas is in a decent spot but doesn’t have the best matchup in GB. The last two are all difficult to consider. None of them have been grabbed thus far in my drafts.
TE: * This is a week you can consider grabbing Gronk. He’s been picked up in 88% of my drafts so far this week. The game carries a 56.5 total and you’re going to want a piece of it in some form.
Picking First Strategy: (2 forks)
- I’m preferring to go to Elliot this week. Higher game total by Vegas, a great spot for him, and he’s a workhorse. Everyone I played against went Bell first pick which has given me 100% exposure to him this week.
- You can’t go wrong picking Bell since he’s a matchup-proof juggernaut. The 15+ people I played against did and if you do, it leaves Dak or Dez open as an option in later rounds.
Going RB first forces your opponent into RB + WR which has happened 100% of the time this week. If you grab Elliot first, they will grab Bell and Julio. If you grab Bell first, they’ll grab Elliot and Julio or Gurley and Julio. The constant is Julio coming off the board. When this is the case, I’m changing tactics a little this week and grabbing Brady with the 4th or 5th pick and an AJ Green. Brady is going to score points whereas it’s anyone’s guess who is going to getting the red zone looks. I’m all about floor in these matchups.
Picking Second Strategy: (one fork)
- It’s literally the inverse of picking first. Grab Bell/Elliot + Jones.
From here it’s reactionary drafting. If they don’t grab Brady with the 4/5 pick, grab him yourself. If they do, this is where you’re going to need to look past Prescott and pivot to Brees. Reason being if you grabbed Elliot and you already have Jones, you’re left with Brees by default since we’re not looking to stack this week in cash H2H. This also means you can leave QB to your last pick as our standard option and go RB/WR instead.
Common draft scenarios I’ve seen this week:
- Pick 1: Bell
- Pick 2(me): Elliot
- Pick 3(me): Julio
- Pick 4: Gurley
- Pick 5: Brown
- Pick 6(me): Brady
- Pick 7(me): Green
- Pick 8: Thomas
- Pick 9: Brees
- Pick 10(me): McCoy
This is literally 6 of my H2H drafts this week. Can you see what my opponent did wrong? 40% of their point generators are focused on one offense in the second lowest projected game on the slate. 40% of their point generators are focused on a different game as well. 80% of his points are going to be based on 2 offense instead of 5. It’s a GPP strategy, not a cash strategy.
