Flynnie's Forecheck - DraftKings NHL PickEm Plays for Oct 26, 2017

ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leaderboards.

Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys, these picks will be more cash in nature. If you win $1 million with my plays, help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha.

Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys  (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), for GPPs stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.

A strategic note I’ve come across is, I prefer to use forwards in each tier if given the option. To me it seems similar to using a PG in the utility spot or RB in the flex, it significantly raises your floor. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it should help with your player selection. Unless of course, you have Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson or one of those types that are basically a forward only playing on the blue line.

All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army here.

I am going to add another stat in addition to CA and CF to my analysis: BS + SOG. Blocked shots + shots on goal. On DraftKings each is worth 0.5 points and if we can find players that consistently shoot and block shots our floor will be raised significantly. ChoppoDong came up with the idea and Jim Keenan (@rk101785 in Slack) put it in his chart for the slate breakdown.

Here’s a quick look at today’s games followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.

LAK (2.70) @ MTL -113 (2.80)

PHI (2.70) @ OTT -113 (2.80)

DET (2.70) @ TB -211 (3.30)

ANA -101(2.72) @ FLA -109 (2.78) – essentially a pick em game

NYI (2.51) @ MIN -145 (2.99)

DAL (2.92) @ EDM -116 (3.08)

WAS -148 (3.01) @ VAN (2.49)

Ovechkin (1/PP1)

Kucherov (1/PP1)

Seguin (1/PP1)

McDavid (1/PP1)

McDavid has the highest CF number and everyone in this tier is elite with BS+SOG. Ovechkin has the highest at 53 – the highest on the slate, his CF number is the lowest in the tier and really only average on the slate. He is just insanely efficient when he does shoot. Be aware that Van is not a great team so they try to slow their opponents down. Tampa is the largest favorite on the slate, so your cash option is Kucherov. It is very hard to go wrong anywhere in this tier but as always, it’s how you correlate in the other seven tiers.

Stamkos (1/PP1)

Benn (1/PP1)

Tavares (1/PP1)

Backstrom (2/PP1)

Getzlaf (1/PP1)

For cash, Stamkos is your guy. Number one in CF and BS+SOG in the tier and he correlates with Kucherov and a couple other guys I will get to. You can even run the entire TB top line together in a GPP and hope everything runs through them, just be aware Detroit is a solid defensive team but it’s tough for anyone to stop that group of Lightning. Benn has similar CF to everyone else in the tier but his BS+SOG is just below Stamkos so a Seguin/Benn stack is again in play. Both Dal and EDM are very good in CF/60 and CA/60 – top-10 in both categories so it’s either going to be 1-0 with both defenses locking down or 6-5 with both high powered offenses going off. Good luck trying to figure that one out. What I do know is it will be an entertaining game to watch. Backstrom could go overlooked if people look at the BS+SOG and little else, every other number looks good and he is an excellent passer, one of the main reasons Ovi is so efficient when he shoots.

Kopitar (1/PP1)

Simmonds (2/PP1) – watch the injury reports, he’s banged up

Oshie (2/PP1)

Perry (1/PP1)

Karlsson (PP1)

Erik Karlsson is your cash game guy tonight. His numbers don’t look great but he’s only played four games and has been terrific in all of them. Simmonds is always a beast but until we get more clarity on his injury I’m off him. I think a sneaky 2-man stack could be Getzlaf and Perry or pair one of them up with a defenseman I will talk about later. They are projected to score almost 3 goals in a pick ’em game, both teams CF is average and their CA is below average – nothing great or terrible but it could become an overlooked offensive game. I will get some pieces of it in GPPs for sure.

Doughty (PP1)

Klingberg (PP1)

Gostisbehere (PP1)

Carlson (PP1)

Klefbom (PP1)

Hedman (PP1)

Let’s talk defense. I love four guys in this tier so it’s just about correlation. Hedman is one guy I alluded to with the TB stack, I don’t like his numbers very much but in GPPs he’s worth playing on that unit. Doughty‘s numbers blow me away. They are among the best on the slate and his BS+SOG is right there with Ovi at 50. Pair him with Kopitar and watch them fly around the ice. Klingberg is also a beast and with Seguin and Benn on the ice with him most of the time the opportunities are always there. Klefbom may go overlooked but he makes a great pairing with McDavid and other Oilers I will get to, he’s a top pairing Defenseman and on the top PP unit with elite CF and BS+SOG numbers that are nearly identical to John Carlson the other guy I love in this tier. Pick which stacks you like and make sure one of these four guys are there.

Brown (1/PP1)

Voracek (1/PP1)

Trocheck (1/PP1)

Zetterberg (1/PP1)

Kuznetsov (1/PP1)

Pacioretty (2/PP1)

Pacioretty could be a decent cash option, He doesn’t have a linemate to correlate with, but he does have a PP mate in the next tier, MTL has the #2 CF/60 in the league and LAK is middle of the pack. This is another game I can see shooting out. Speaking of that same game Trocheck has a low CF number but he’s solid in BS+SOG. He is easier to correlate. Brown is the top of both categories in the tier and I keep forgetting how talented he really is because he’s overshadowed by so much other talent in LA.

Stone (1/PP2)

Huberdeau (1/PP1)

Couturier (1/PP2)

Namestikov (1/PP1)

E. Staal (2/PP2)

Drouin (1/PP1)

Eberle (1/PP1)

Drouin was the cash game play I was referring to pair with Pacioretty. He has the highest CF and has one less BS+SOG than Namestikov. Namestikov is an elite play and should go overlooked. You can get exposure to the Stamkos by pairing him with Kucherov and make for a unique lineup. If you want the other side of another potential shootout, grab Huberdeau to pair with Trocheck for PP1 exposure. A GPP flyer that could pay off is Eberle is paired with Tavares. Couturier doesn’t correlate at all so I’m off him.

Brassard (1/PP2)

Hoffman (3/PP1)

Lee (1/PP1)

Zucker (1/PP1)

Toffoli (2/PP2)

Tatar (2/PP1)

Yamamoto (1/PP1)

I’m afraid Hoffman is a similar trap to Sam Reinhart last night. Line 3, top PP, off the charts BS+SOG. Maybe pair him up with Karlsson for PP1 exposure. It feels too boom or bust for cash, but for GPP anything goes. Anders Lee could be another pairing to go with Tavares or Eberle. I like those players a lot, but I don’t think this is the night to play them. They are +145 dogs and have one of the lowest ITT on the slate. Toffoli has excellent numbers but his lack of correlation is keeping me off of him. Dadonov and Yamamoto are young guns that should go lower owned. Yamamoto gets you exposure to McJesus and Dadonov gets you the Panthers top line and top PP, so take your pick.

Suter (PP1)

Martinez (PP1)

Montour (PP1)

Kase (2/PP1)

Larkin (2/PP2)

Horvat (2/PP2)

Yandle (PP1)

Lucic (2/PP1)

For cash, Yandle and Larkin are your go-to guys. I’d only use Larkin with Tatar to get double up on the second line. Yandle is fine with any Panthers on the slate bc they all at least correlate on the PP1. Alec Martinez and Brandon Montour are my GPP specials Montour doesn’t have great Corsi numbers but he is an excellent shot blocker and makes for a low owned GPP play with Getzlaf and Perry. Martinez is similar only a better shooter his CF is second in the tier only to Larkin.

Remember to follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and good luck tonight!!

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