Flynnie’s Forecheck – DraftKings NHL PickEm Plays for Oct 25, 2017 by RFlynn710
ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leaderboards.
Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys, these picks will be more cash in nature, if you win S1 million with my plays help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), GPP stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.
A strategic note I’ve across is, I prefer to use forwards in each tier if given the option. To me it seems similar to using a PG in the utility spot or RB in the flex, it significantly raises your floor. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it should help with your player selection. Unless of course, you have Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson or one of those types that are basically a forward only playing on the blue line.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army here.
Here’s a quick look at today’s games followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.
CGY (2.46) @ STL – 154 (3.04)
Buff (2.20) @ CBJ -210 (3.30)
This is a two-game slate today and after talking with a few of our coaches and active members in Slack, I am going to add another stat in addition to CA and CF to my analysis: BS +SOG. Blocked shots + shots on goal. On DraftKings each is worth 0.5 points and if we can find players that consistently shoot and block shots our floor will be raised significantly. ChoppoDong came up with the idea and Jim Keenan (@rk101785 in Slack) put it in his chart for the slate breakdown. Without further ado here is today’s two-game breakdown,
Tier 1
Tarasenko (1/PP1)
Eichel (1/PP1)
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
Being heavy favorites and the only one of the three not on a B2B Tarasenko should run away with the ownership here, he also has the most BS+SOG with 37 in the tier, but the lowest CF. Gaudreau has the highest CF and lowest BS+SOG. Eichel is in between on both stats but he is still Jack Eichel can score with the best in the game. Our new stat will be put to the test early on.
Tier 2
Kane (1/PP2)
Schwartz (1/PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
Panarin (1/PP1)
Atkinson (1/PP1)
Kudos to DK for making us make some decisions here. Atkinson and Panarin play well together and are both on the top PP unit and you can only choose one. Panarin has the highest CF in the tier and lowest BS+SOG, Atkinson is average in both in the tier. Both are solid cash options, but my GPP player in Evander Kane. He has the highest BS+SOG on the entire slate, one of the highest CF numbers but he is playing against the #2 team in the league in CA. So, either load up on Kane or load up on CBJ defense bc the blocks will be there. I’m not crazy about Monahan, but pairing him with Gaudreau will rarely sink your night.
Tier 3
Pominville (2/PP2)
Schenn (1/PP1)
O’Reilly (2/PP1)
Stastny (2/PP2)
Foligno (2/PP1)
Wennberg (1/PP1)
Again we have a case of highest CF and lowest BS+SOG in Wennberg. He will likely be a solid play with one of the two Blue Jackets in Tier 2 because they are implied to score over three goals and generally the top line has the most opportunities to score. Schenn is a terrific way to go here by pairing him with Senko or Schwartz. He’s number 2 in the tier in both CF and BS+SOG.
Tier 4
Giordano (PP2)
Brodie (PP1)
Werenski (PP1)
Seth Jones (PP2)
Parayko (PP2)
Ristolainen (PP1)
Giordano has the second highest BS+SOG and he has 31 blocked shots in nine games. There’s no way that is sustainable but ride the hot hand while you can. Jones is another low owned option on a team I believe will be chalky. He throws a ton of pucks in the direction of the net and he also has second most BS+SOG to Giordano who has the most and it isn’t close (56-39).
Tier 5
Tkachuk (2/PP2)
Bjorkstrand (2/PP2)
Reinhart (2/PP1)
Ferland (1/no PP)
Okposo (1/PP2)
Steen (2/PP1)
Reinhart flies off the page at me. He has the second most CF and by far the most BS+SOG. Tkachuk is another good play, he has the #1 CF and #2 BS+SOG, pairing him with Giordano on the PP2 gives you a very good floor.
Tier 6
Jenner (2/PP2)
Backlund (2/PP2)
Versteeg (4/PP1)
Sobotka (2/PP2)
Frolik (2/no PP)
DuBois (3/PP2)
The more I dig in the more I love CGY PP2 unit. Backlund has the highest CF and highest BS+SOG. Jenner (not Bruce/Caitlin) should go overlooked today because he’s only played one game but he did register six SOG that night. Buff is a solid defensive team but a Jenner/Jones/Bjorkstrand stack could pay off. Sobotka is having a decent start to the season and to get off the Tarasenko chalk maybe a Sobotka/Stastny/Parayko PP2 stack.
We have plenty of options tonight and I believe the Blues and Blue Jackets will garner the vast majority of the ownership.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and good luck tonight!
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