Flynnie’s Forecheck – DraftKings NHL PickEm Plays for Oct 21, 2017 by Rflynn710
ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leaderboards.
Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys, these plays will be more cash in nature, if you win S1 million with my plays help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), GPP stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.
A strategic note I’ve across is, I prefer to use forwards in each tier if given the option. To me it seems similar to using a PG in the utility spot or RB in the flex, it significantly raises your floor. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it should help with your player selection. Unless of course, you have Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson or one of those types that are basically a forward only playing on the blue line.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack.
Here’s a quick look at today’s games followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.
Det (2.65) @ Buff -121 (2.85)
Fla (2.61) @ Mtl -127 (2.89)
LA @ Ott NL
Cgy (2.58) @ NSH -133 (2.92)
Van (2.27) @ Minn -194 (3.23)
Dal -125 (3.14) @ Col (2.86)
Chi -161 (3.34) @ VGK (2.65)
Tier 1
Seguin (1/PP1)
Forsberg (1/PP1)
P. Kane (2/PP2)
I think Kane will be chalk, but he’s tough to correlate. He can be a one-man wrecking crew when he puts his mind to it and he’ll be especially dangerous against a third-string goalie with Fleury and Malcolm Subban on the shelf for Vegas. I think I’m going Forsberg here though. Nashville has an implied total of almost 3 and Calgary does nothing in the way of shot suppression.
Tier 2
Eichel (1/PP1)
Benn (1/PP1)
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
Karlsson (PP1)
This is a tough tier. All four guys have tough match-ups. All the opponents are good with shot suppression and Benn who may have the best match-up is going against the lockdown Col PK unit. Karlsson is another good option. LA is a good team, middle of the road in CA/60 but they are on a road B2B and playing a backup goalie and Karlsson can score from anywhere. I am much more in favor of LAK tonight but like I said this is a tough tier. Another option is to skip this tier at first, then go back up to see where it can correlate with your other plays.
Tier 3
E. Kane (1/PP2)
Kopitar (1/PP1)
Neal (1/PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
Toews (1/PP1)
Kopitar is in a great spot for the Kings, he has the best Corsi ratio in the tier and Ott is last in CA/60, I love LAK tonight. Toews has a great CF but he gives up a lot of shots too. I think Toews will be chalk bc he is easier to correlate than Kane, but you can’t wrong with him bc Chi has the highest implied total and he is one of the best players on that team, he will have a hand in the scoring if it goes the way Vegas is projecting.
Tier 4
Brown (1/PP1)
Trocheck (2/PP2)
Saad (1/PP1)
Zetterberg (1/PP1)
Radulov (1/PP1)
Pacioretty (2/PP1)
Zetterberg is always good in cash games. This is not an ideal matchup bc Buff is good on the defensive end. If you are playing Kopitar throw Dustin Brown in with him. Radulov is another great fit with his linemates. Pacioretty is intriguing. He’s a GPP option only. MTL shoots a ton but they can’t hit water if they fell off a boat lately, Fla is middle of the pack in CA making it a very boom or bust play. I was heavy on MTL last time out, they had 30 shots in one period but still got destroyed. On the other side MTL is middle of the pack in CA and Fla is top-10 in CF/60 so Trocheck can be solid, I’m not sure I’m going there, though.
Tier 5
Doughty (PP1)
Suter (PP1)
Klingberg (PP1)
Subban (PP1)
Josi (PP1)
The all-defense tier. I love Doughty if you’re playing a Kings stack. Klingberg is always solid and has the most CF in the tier. They are making you chose bt the two D men on the NSH PP1. Subban is the better offensive player but Josi is close behind. I think I’m going with PK here bc I’m going with Forsberg in Tier 1. Suter is a good GPP play, Van plays slow so that should limit Min but they are the largest favorite and have an implied total over 3, I think they will be very overlooked.
Tier 6
E. Staal (2/PP2)
Barkov (1/PP1)
Arvidsson (1/PP2)
O’Reilly (2/PP1)
Turris (2/PP1)
Drouin (1/PP1)
Drouin would only be a GPP play with Pacioretty. Arvidsson correlates with Forsberg on the top line but he doesn’t share any PP time with anyone in any tier, which to me, makes him just a cash game play. Since I’m a cash guy, I will probably go there and maybe get off the NSH defense in Tier 5. Eric Staal doesn’t correlate at all so I’m not on him at all. Barkov is another good play, just to take advantage of the mess that MTL has become and he correlates well with several other players.
Tier 7
Stone (1/PP1)
Huberdeau (1/PP1)
Panik (1/PP1)
Mantha (1/PP2)
Toffoli (2/PP2)
Koivu (1/PP1)
Johanssen (1/PP1)
Koivu is my GPP special here. He works well with Suter and should be lower owned. Mantha has the best ratio and it isn’t close, but only concern is Buffalo is the #10 team in CA. I also like Panik, Huberdeau and Johannsen when they are correlated. I’ve said how much I like LAK tonight and I like Tyler Toffoli’s game but he doesn’t correlate at all with anyone so I’m off him and hoping people play him not realizing the correlation is missing.
Tier 8
Pominville (2/PP2)
Dadonov (1/PP1)
Duchene (2/PP2)
Tatar (2/PP1)
Boeser (2/PP2)
Sharp (3/PP2)
MacKinnon (1/PP1)
Duchene could be a decent GPP one-off here if for no other reason that he is trying to impress other teams to get out of Colorado. Tatar has the highest CF number and he correlates with Zetterberg for a decent cash game option, not my favorite though. I like the idea of playing Dadonov with either Huberdeau or Barkov in cash or both in GPP. Sharp could be low owned and is really the only one that correlates with Kane and that’s only on the PP, so I think it’s only for cash games.Pominville has a great CF number and matches up with E. Kane or O’Reilly. Det is a good defensive team so I would leave this for GPPs only.
I hope this helped. I’m still trying to fine-tune the nuances of Pick ‘Em but there is an edge here to be sure.
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