Flynnie’s Forecheck by RFlynn710
ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leaderboards.
Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys these will be more cash in nature, if you win S1 million with my plays help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha. Be sure to follow me on Twitter here.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), GPP stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack.
Here’s a quick look at today’s games followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.
Car (2.59)@ Dal -130 (2.91)
Chi -144 (3.25) @ Ari (2.75)
Min (2.66) @ Cgy -158 (3.34)
StL -133 (2.92) @ VGK (2.58)
Here are today’s tiers:
Tier 1
Seguin (line 1/PP1)
Tarasenko (1/PP1)
P. Kane (2/PP2)
As always the studs are in Tier 1 and this is going to give you your first ideas on where to stack. Seguin will always be chalk, and that’s not a bad thing. I normally love Seguin, he has become the star (pun not intended) he should have been in Boston (that’s another rant for another time). But Carolina is #6 in the league in Corsi against (CA), I’m not big on Dallas for cash but in GPP stack away, they can score 6 or 7 any given night. Kane is my guy in this tier. He, along with his entire team, doesn’t suppress any shots but he takes a bunch, second to Seguin in this tier and AZ ranks #26 as a team in CA.
Tier 2
Neal (1/PP1)
Saad (1/PP1)
Benn (1/PP1)
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
In this tier, you have some stacking options but based on Corsi and implied total I’m going Benn. The Canes shut down opposing offenses well but his Corsi ratio is far and away the best in the tier. Gaudreau is a solid option, too. Cgy has the highest implied total on the slate and Min is middle of the pack in CA and Johnny Hockey’s CF numbers are very similar to Benn.
Tier 3
Pietrangelo (PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
Toews (1/PP1)
Radulov (1/PP1)
In this tier, you have three forwards and a defenseman. My preference is to use forwards when you have tiers like this. I think his idea is similar to using an RB in the flex or a PG in the utility spot, it significantly raises your floor. Pietrangelo is a very good D and is a PP QB, he actually has the second highest CF number to only Radulov. He’s the play in this tier I believe, like Benn his ratio is far above everyone else. Even with Carolina suppressing shots, opportunities lead to points. Monahan is also a terrific option to stack with Johnny Hockey.
Tier 4
Schwartz (2/PP1)
Klingberg (PP1)
E. Staal (2/PP2)
Panik (1/PP1)
Schenn (2/PP1)
Once again I’m seeing the largest ratio in favor of a Star. This is a terrific GPP play like I said when Dallas gets going they can score with the best, but for cash, I want to stick with forwards as much as possible. That’s where Panik comes in. He’s got the highest Corsi For of any forward in this tier and with his willingness to fire the puck on net he’s bound to get a piece of that 3.25 implied goal total. If you’re feeling squirrelly fire him up with Saad and Toews for a PP1 stack.
Tier 5
Giordano (PP2)
Skinner (3/PP1)
Stepan (1/PP1)
Suter (PP1)
Koivu (1/PP1)
Schmaltz (2/PP2)
Derek Stepan is the play here. He has the highest Corsi ratio in the tier and Chi is terrible at CA. Even though they aren’t favored, AZ still has the 5th highest implied total and highest for an underdog. I think Skinner will be low owned, he’s a very good player but Dallas is the #1 team in CA against so I don’t think I can trust him, not for cash anyway.
Tier 6
Keller (2/PP1)
Perron (1/PP1)
Hartman (2/PP2)
Faulk (PP1)
Aho (2/PP2)
Steen (1/PP2)
As far as Corsi ratios go, nothing jumps out in this tier except how bad Hartman’s is. Keller has the highest CF and he will likely go against the Kane/Hartman line so the opportunities will be there for him
Tier 7
Zucker (1/PP1)
Domi (1/PP1)
Teravainen (1/PP1)
Spezza (2/PP2)
Shipachyov (1/PP1)
Eakin (1/PP1)
Domi has the highest CF number in the tier and we discussed Chicago’s inability to stop anyone defensively. Spezza will be solid due to the opportunities he will have. Dallas plays fast, so even with, Carolina slowing them down, they will still shoot. My favorite GPP option here is Shipachyov he’s only played two games since coming over from the KHL but he’s fitting right in with VGK on the first line and PP2.
Tier 8
Tuch (2/PP2)
Williams (1/PP2)
Hamilton (PP2)
Tkachuk (2/no PP)
Ekman-Larsson (PP1)
Jagr (1/PP2)
There are three Flames in this tier, I believe that will lead people to Jagr to stack with Monahan and Gaudreau. That’s not a bad idea, esp for smaller GPP’s. I’m off Tkachuk because he doesn’t get any PP time, that’s ice time you are just giving away. It isn’t a Game 7 so I’m off Williams. So that leaves OEL and Tuch. I like Tuch for the same reasons I like Shipachyov. They are a GPP special teamed up. I’ve seen different line combos with those two, I know they play together on the PP but I’ve seen them playing together on a line and separate so if someone knows the true line combos please let me know. I like OEL as a PP QB and playing with at least one of the Coyotes I mentioned to get PP exposure.
I hope there’s enough info for you guys. Let’s make some money tonight!! See you in the VIP Slack Chat and be sure to follow me on Twitter here!
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