Flynnie’s Forecheck (If anyone has a better name please help a brother out) by RFlynn710
ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leaderboards.
Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. I love taking shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports, but if I’m being honest with myself and you guys, these plays will be more cash in nature. If you win S1 million with my plays help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), GPP stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points. Almost all my information comes from Corsica.hockey, RG or LeftWingLock.
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Today we have four games to choose from, but there’s some goodness for sure:
Was (2.91) -131 @ Det (2.59)
Pitt (3.12) -123 @Fla (2.88)
Min (2.65) @WPG (2.85) -121
MTL (2.41) @ Ana-125 (2.59)
My cash plays would be Pitt, Washington, and WPG. My Gpp options are MTL, Florida, (both are top 4 in Corsi For and going against teams that don’t play a lick of defense). I’m having a hard time figuring out what will happen with Min/WPG – neither are great at anything but when they get hot they can run with anyone in the league.
Here are today’s tiers:
TIER 1-
Ovechkin
Crosby
Tough to go wrong with either, they are the best players on the slate and easily top 4 or 5 players in the league. Just correlate whichever one you use. The Corsi for numbers favor Crosby but Florida is #5 in the league in Corsi Against/60 and Det is #4. So this really is a wash. I promise I’m not always this indecisive.
TIER 2 –
Backstrom
Malkin
Rakell
Laine
Based on CF/60 and CA/60. Backstrom is the runaway favorite here. Detroit is very good at shot suppression but these are the Caps, they’ll get opportunities. Laine is a very good lower owned option though.
TIER 3
Oshie
Kessel
Scheifele
Perry
Again I’m all over the Caps on this one, TJ Oshie has the highest CF and lowest CA in this group. Scheifele would be the next option with MIN being #24 in CA.
TIER 4
Ehlers
Kuznetsov
Guentzel
Pacioretty
Pacioretty is where I’m going here. MTL is #4 in CF and ANA is #29 in CA. I’m not going to guarantee a goal or anything crazy but MTL will get their shots. MTL is too good to be 1-5-1. Claude is a lot of things but he is a good coach. He will get these guys rolling soon and Pacioretty is the man the offense runs through more often than not. Guentzel is solid too, this kid is a terrific player and he’s also exposure to the top line for Pitt.
TIER 5
Trocheck
Eric Staal
Zetterberg
Drouin
Silfverberg
This is a fun tier. Det can shoot and they aren’t crazy about defense in the Nation’s Capital – Zetterberg is a solid cash play in every format just about every night he takes the ice. Pitt REALLY hates playing defense, so this is where Trocheckcomes into play – #2 team in CF vs #30 in CA. Matt Murray is going to have a busy night.
TIER 6
Ryan Suter
Green
Weber
Carlson
Fowler
Let’s talk some defense. The best thing to look for is PP exposure, unfortunately, everyone here is on their team’s PP so we can’t eliminate anyone that way. The two to target for shots are Green and Carlson. Weber is the PP QB on a team that is going to rack up scoring chances, so you can’t go wrong there either. None of those three will get you anything on the defensive end but lucky for us, DFS doesn’t care about defensive stats, other than blocks.
TIER 7
Huberdeau
Mantha
Zucker
Letang
Byfuglien
This is where roster construction matters. Huberdeau, Mantha, Letang and Buff are going to be your best bets, just correlate them to the rest of your roster. In a vacuum, my guy would be Mantha. Washington doesn’t suppress shots, Det likes taking them and Mantha has the best CF:CA ratio (I might have just made up a stat, I’m not sure: CF 106- CA 84) in this tier.
TIER 8
Larkin
Cogliano
Rust
Trouba
Barkov
Galchenyuk
In the final tier, you want to make sure everything is correlated properly. Esp for GPP my favorite here is Larkin, and team him up with Green and Mantha for a 3-man from Det PP2. Barkov would be another way to go. Like I keep saying the Penguins hate defense so might as well get the top line and top PP unit more exposure – he’ll be on the ice plenty.
Thanks for taking a moment to read this. Sorry, it’s kinda long. Hopefully, we win some money and exploit that edge in Pick Em!!
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