Flynnie’s Forecheck
ChoppoDong asked for someone to write an article for NHL Pick Em and I’m going to take a shot on it. I love hockey and the volatility of NHL DFS. I feel there is an edge for the Army in NHL Pick Em, it’s a new format and with the right plays and correlation there can be helmets at the top of all the leader boards.
Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPPs and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys these will be more cash in nature, if you win $1 million with my plays help me out with a mortgage payment or two haha.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), for GPPs stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.
A strategic note I’ve come across is, I prefer to use forwards in each tier if given the option. To me it seems similar to using a PG in the utility spot or RB in the flex, it significantly raises your floor. It’s not a hard and fast rule but it should help with your player selection. Unless of course you have Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson or one of those types that are basically a forward only playing on the blue line.
**As I use the BS+SOG stat, I’m beginning to rethink this. Guys like Alec Martinez and Mark Giordano block everything so it isn’t a hard and fast rule yet.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/
I am going to add another stat in addition to CA and CF to my analysis: BS + SOG. Blocked shots + shots on goal. On DraftKings each is worth 0.5 points and if we can find players that consistently shoot and block shots our floor will be raised significantly. ChoppoDong came up with the idea and Jim Keenan (@rk101785 in Slack) put it in his chart for the slate breakdown.
Here’s a quick look at today’s games followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.
CBJ (2.58) @ STL -133 (2.92)
NYI (2.63) @ NSH -124 (2.87)
PITT -105 (3.04) @ MIN -105 (2.96) – Pick ‘Em game
CHI -117 (3.08) @ COL (2.92)
WAS (2.60) @ EDM -129 (2.90)
Tier 1
Ovechkin (1/PP1)
McDavid (1/PP1)
Tarasenko (1/PP1)
Crosby (1/PP1)
Kane (2/PP2)
Ovechkin has the highest BS+SOG on the slate but his Corsi numbers are average-at-best. He is playing against a very good defensive Oilers team, so I would reserve Caps for GPPs. McDavid has the highest CF numbers on the slate and very good BS+SOG.
Washington is a good defensive team but they can be exploited, Crosby is the cash play here. His numbers are comparable to the others, Minnesota is in the bottom 1/3 of the league in CA and this game should be a shootout. In GPPs, feel free to stack up both sides of this one.
Tier 2
Forsberg (1/PP1)
Tavares (1/PP1)
Saad (1/PP1)
Malkin (2/PP1)
Draisaitl (1/PP1)
All the BS+SOG numbers in this tier look similar except for Draisaitl, but he has only played 5 games. If you extrapolate his numbers to match the games played for everyone else in the tier he is far and away the best play. For as good as a lot of the Isles look tonight, NSH is a terrific defensive team and I’m off of them except for maybe a GPP dart. Malkin is another way to go. The Pens are all in play. I will only mention them if their numbers jump off the page. The stack is in play for sure.
Tier 3
Pietrangelo (PP1)
Kessel (2/PP1)
Kuznetsov (1/PP1)
Letang (PP1)
Atkinson (2/PP1)
This tier is an easy place to wrong. Pietrangelo jumps off the page but CBJ is the best defensive team in the league. The Pens are in play, I prefer Letang, he has a higher floor. But I think the way to go is Cam Atkinson. His numbers aren’t great but he’s on one of the top offensive teams going against a mediocre defensive and tired team in the Blues.
Tier 4
Schwartz (1/PP1)
Josi (PP1)
Oshie (2/PP1)
Panarin (1/PP1)
Toews (1/PP1)
Panarin flies off the page at me. Lock him in for cash. Just a bonus he and Atkinson pair up on PP1. His Corsi numbers are the tops in the tier and his BS+SOG are average. Josi has the highest BS+SOG and going against a team that is average in CA. Toews is always solid when he is correlated with his line mates.
Tier 5
E. Staal (2/PP2)
Arvidsson (1/PP2)
Schenn (1/PP1)
Stastny (2/PP2)
Foligno (1/PP1)
Guentzel (1/PP2)
Arvidsson has very good CF numbers and the best BS+SOG in the tier. I am also a big fan on NSH in GPP tonight. That line made me some good money last season. I like the Wild tonight but Staal doesn’t correlate anywhere, he is a good one-off in a high scoring game however. Guentzel has the highest CF #2 BS+SOG in the tier.
Tier 6
Suter (PP1)
Carlson (PP1)
Werenski (PP1)
Subban (PP1)
Keith (PP2)
Klefbom (PP1)
Werenski has the great CF numbers and solid BS+SOG. Klefbom and Carlson have almost identical numbers and correlated properly will be solid options.
Tier 7
Jones (PP2)
Barrie (PP2)
Lee (1/PP1)
Wennberg (3/PP1)
Johansen (1/PP1)
Granlund (1/PP1)
Granlund’s numbers won’t pop off the page to anyone but he has only played 3 games. Him going overlooked is what made me so high on Min tonight. Jones is always solid and will be a low owned option on one of the best teams on the slate.
Tier 8
Zucker (1/PP1)
Hornqvist (3/PP1)
Maroon (1/PP2)
Eberle (2/PP2)
Bjorkstrand (3/PP2)
MacKinnon (1/PP1)
Schmaltz (2/PP2)
Zucker with Granlund and Suter is a great GPP play. Bjorkstrand doesn’t have numbers that pop off the page but I want a lot of CBJ exposure tonight. Pair him with Seth Jones. Maroon is another terrific play with some combo of McDavid, Draisaitl and Klefbom. Nick Schmaltz isn’t doing anything for me but I have a gut feeling that he and Kane will have a good night together. If you want to get crazy, throw Duncan Keith in with them for the PP2 stack.
I don’t have the best feel for this slate so I’m going to play light.
Remember follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and good luck tonight!!
