Here is your weekly sharp line analysis for week 8. There is quite a bit this week so strap in.
HOU @ SEA
The line opened with Seattle as 5.5 point favorites. The public and the sharps have jumped on that and brought the line up to Seahawks -6.5. In a slight contrast, the total has dropped half a point to 45.5.
DFS Takeaway: This is a slight uptick for the seahawks at home and a little dip in expectation for the Texans.
CAR @ TB
This game opened with TB as home favorites by 2.5 points. The public is all over Carolina and the line now stands at TB -1. This is a curious case because it also has some sharp money hiding in there. Roughly 72% of the betting public is on Carolina, and has been all week rather steadily, yet the line moved in their favor in separate moves. The TB defense is decimated right now and Carolina’s offense is on the upswing, as told by the .5 pt increase on the total.
DFS Takeaway: Carolina’s offense is looking pretty useful in this spot. It also looks like a tight game with a decent total of 46.5. You might even be able to work in pieces of both offenses.
CHI @ NO
This game appears one-sided on paper. Saints are at home and favored by 10 points after the open had them by 9. Late money is starting to come in on the bears. While the money may not affect the line too much, it has affected the total. This game opened at 48 but now stands at 46.5 after multiple steps down throughout the week.
DFS Takeaway: The Saints are still favored to win but we should temper our expectations against a gritty bears defense. While they haven’t always performed well on the road, it could be tough for the Saints to achieve full potential.
IND @ CIN
The Colts are skidding their way into Cincy and this doesn’t look like a spot to right the ship either. The only thing to note is that the total has risen 2 points this week from 41 to 43.
DFS Takeaway: Cincy offense is in a solid spot. There are a couple targets for cash plays in this game and, for what it’s worth, the odds on the Bengals eclipsing their ITT has risen significantly.
ATL @ NYJ
Sharps are on Atlanta to win and cover. When the oddsmakers dropped lines on this one, the Falcons were 4.5 pt favorites. By midweek, it started moving up to where it now stands at 6.5 pt in favor of the ATL. The total has plummeted from 46.5 to 43.5.
DFS Takeaway: This is a nice boost for the Atlanta offense. The game total is low but the line move in their favor helps both the sides of the ball for Atlanta. An ITT of 25 means we can grab a piece of the action.
PHI @ SF
Here is another game that started with a high total but fell as the week progressed. This game opened with a 47 total but stands at 44. The public really likes philly and as a result the line (PHI -13) on the game is a bit inflated. Oddsmakers even admitted as much.
DFS Takeaway: The public has a high belief in the Eagles and they see the 0-7 record by SF and they autopick. SF is 4-3 against the spread and they have been in just about every game this year. Careful with the Eagles defense as the 49ers may stay within striking distance.
DAL @ WAS
This one opened as a PICK, but has seen the scales tip in favor of Dallas. Dallas is currently 2.5 pt favorites when you add in more line movement this morning. Inclement weather has driven the total down 4 points this week!
DFS Takeaway: Heed this warning! A mov of this magnitude doesn’t happen by accident. Even after the new totals were accounted for, the odds on each team’s ITT favors the under. Strong downgrades to both offenses.
PIT @ DET
Preseason is over for Pittsburgh. That’s what the sharps want me to believe. Detroit is coming off a BYE and is a 3 pt dog in their own house. Sharp money came in on the Steelers last night.
DFS Takeaway: Pittsburgh is in play tonight. You can use their offense and their defense.
DEN @ KC
The biggest thing to note is that the sharps like Denver to cover the 7.5 pt spread on the road. These division games tend to be a little closer
DFS Takeaway: Slight uptick to denver offense and slight downtick to the KC defense. KC is still projected to win.
That’s all I got for this week. Stay tuned to Staff for any late breaking news, notes, and line movements.
Good luck in week 8, Army!
