Your week 4 sharp money analysis awaits.
TB @ NYG
The bucs are very banged up on defense and should be missing 2 starting LBs, if not even more key pieces. Giants look like they are getting healthier and starting to gel. Hopefully last week was real because they were opened as 4.5 point dogs and the sharps quickly jumped all over it. They are currently 2.5 point dogs.
As the week has gone forward, more and more public money has come in on Tampa Bay. To be precise, the sharps were not just betting a value. They bet the giants from the get go, they bet the giants at +3.5, and they took the giants at +3. Here is the screenshot of the odds at the current line of TB -2.5, over the course of the week.
DFS Takeaway: There is more than a slight uptick for the Giants offense. The home team gets 3 points for their home field advantage, but the giants are 2.5 point dogs. There is a real possibility they can win outright. With a game total of 45, the Giants could put up a decent score.
TEN @ HOU
Tennessee opened at 1 point favorites in a place where they haven’t been so successful. Not only is Houston 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS), but Houston is undefeated against the Titans in Houston. This doesn’t scare the sharps. They have bet Tennessee all week and drove the line up to TEN -2.5. The public witnessed the rookie Watson keep up with Brady in Foxboro last week and are backing him rather fervently.
DFS Takeaway: While the public is on the home dog, very little is being said about the Tennessee offense. The sharps have identified a pivot point for us. The game total is rather low (43.5) but it doesn’t mean you can’t grab a piece of the offense.
OAK @ DEN
Everyone is aware of how hard the Broncos are to play against at Mile high. It took the public a little while to get there following the Broncos loss last week to buffalo, but they got there in the end. What I mean by that is the public originally had only 40% of the money coming in on the Broncos in a close line. Some books were offering DEN -1.5.
Maybe people wanted to see an upset? The sharps weren’t messing around and they jumped all over that line and continued to come in heavy on the Broncos as the week progressed. They line is currently Broncos by 3. It’s kind of telling to see the Broncos get to -3, considering you get 3 points for being home.
DFS Takeaway: Denver is the no fly zone and Oak is down an engine. You can play your Broncos with confidence.
CIN @ CLE
If you were to take one look at this matchup and make an initial prediction, I bet you would say Cincy wins. Most people would. The bookmakers did. Dalton to AJ Green finally locked on last week and maybe that team is starting to look dangerous. If you really look at these teams, though, Cleveland has actually looked better this season. That’s what the sharps believe.
Here is a snapshot of the line at its opening line of CIN -3.5.
There are some ups and downs in that line but the big takeaway is all that public money (shaded line graph) coming in on Cincy and the low odds associated with it. The line is now CIN -3. Anytime you see something like this happen, you need to take another look at the game.
This time, let’s look at the moneyline for the Browns.
What we see here is little faith from the public but a big money move played on the browns to win outright. The line already moved in their favor, even if the public really hasn’t. This game will go a long way towards defining what kind of weekend Vegas has.
DFS Takeaway: A lot has been said this week of the Cincy offense. I think you can target a piece of two of the browns offense. The game total, while low (42), has moved up 2 points this week. I’m not forecasting, but these two teams have had explosive games in the past. If nothing else, there is a slight downtick to the Bengals defense.
OVER/UNDERs
Here are a few games that the sharps have bet on for game totals.
CAR @ NE – the game total was set at 47.5 earlier in the week and the sharps have taken it all the way up to 49.5. Offense.
PIT @ BAL – This game started at a 45 total but sharps were all over the under, even it when it had already dropped to 43.5. The current O/U stands at 42.5. Baltimore is favored and we know about Ben’s struggles on the road. Ravens defense is looking a little better.
PHI @ LAC – When the total stood at 47.5, the sharps took the under. I had this game as a potential game stack situation but now I would probably pick one side and stick there. I like the Chargers in this one.
BUF @ ATL – the game total is 48.5 and massive public money on the over. The sharps disagree here, too. That’s probably what kept the total at 48.5 all week. There was plenty of Tyrod talk for cash games around the industry. I would find someone else. The only way this game should go over is if Tyrod can get the ball into the end zone. Stick to the Atlanta side of the ball. They show out at home.
…aaaannnddddddd I’m spent. Good luck!
