Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? Find out how!
Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 7 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Tyrod Taylor who ended up with 20.02 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.9x value! For our running back free square we had Jay Ajayi who ended up with 10.70 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.7x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Demaryius Thomas who ended up with 2.9 DKFP which was good enough .5x value. For our tight end free square we had Kyle Rudolph who ended up with 9.30 DKFP which was good enough for 2.4x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Minnesota Vikings who ended up with 6 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.8x value.
Congrats to all our DFS Army Winners!
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week seven the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Philadelphia Eagles (29.3), the New Orleans Saints (28.3), and the New England Patriots (28.0) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Indianapolis Colts (15.5), San Francisco 49ers (16.3), and the Chicago Bears (19.3). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Kirk Cousins QB WSH ($6,400)
- Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins will take on the Dallas Cowboys at home this week. The Redskins have an implied total sitting at right around 23.8-points and they are currently 1.5-point underdogs. Kirk has been playing well lately as he has returned the following values in his last 5 games: 1.9x, 4.9x, 3.2x, 4.7x, and a 4.3x. He draws a matchup against the Cowboys who have allowed the 15th most total passing yards this season. Kirk has the following stats this season according to our NFL Research Station: 273 YDS/GM, 33.0 PASS ATT/GM, 12 TD’s, 3.5 DEEP BALL ATT/GM, 3.6 Air YDS/ATT, and a 22.6 FPPG. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.775 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.09x value. I think that is a solid base projection for Cousins this week and I like his upside in what should be a pretty high scoring game. I think he is a solid value option at the quarterback position on Draftkings this week.
- Joe Mixon RB CIN ($4,700)
- Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Indianapolis Colts at home this week. The Bengals have an implied total sitting at right around 26.5-points and they are currently 11-point favorites. Mixon has been playing decently lately as he has returned the following values in his last 5 games: 1.0x, 2.9x, 1.5x, 2.0x, and 2.0x. He draws a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts who have given up right around 97.3 rushing yards a game. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Mixon has the following stats on the season: 53% OPP/SHARE, 45% SNAP/SHARE, 14% Dominator Rating, 12 Carries/GM, 39 YDS/GM, 3.2 YPC, 2.3 Targets/GM, and a 8.9 FPPG. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection for Mixon sitting at right around 14.385 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.06x value. He is currently the highest point per dollar running back in the Domination Station. Mixon has been quite the hyped player this season in NFL DFS and the results have been sub-par. It’s a crowded backfield in Cincinnati but Mixon seems to be the bell cow. At $4,700 I think Mixon is a solid value running back play on Draftkings this week.
- Pierre Garcon WR SF ($6,100)
- Pierre Garcon and the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Philadelphia Eagles on the road this week. The 49ers have an implied total sitting at right around 16.3-points and they are currently 11-point underdogs. Garcon has been playing decently lately as he has returned the following values in his last 5 games: 4.6x, 1.4x, 2.9x, 1.7x, and 1.7x. He will be facing the Philadelphia Eagles this week who have given up the 29th most passing yards to opponents this season. Let’s take a look at Garcon’s stats via the NFL Research Station 16.2 Hog Rating, 12.9% Slot Rate, 89% SNAP/SHARE, 28% Dominator Rating, 9 Targets/GM, 5.4 REC/GM, 69 RECYDS/GM, 1.37 FPTS per Target, and a 12.8 FPPG. The Domination Station has a projection for Garcon at right around 14.352 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.35x value. The Eagles have been bad against the pass this season and with a large spread, the 49ers will have to pass to keep up. I expect a whole lot of targets for Garcon this week and think he makes an excellent receiver play on Draftkings this week.
- Jordan Reed TE WSH ($4,700)
- We have a stack on our hands in the free squares this week. Jordan Reed and the Washington Redskins will take on the Dallas Cowboys at home this week. The Redskins have an implied total sitting at right around 23.8-points and they are currently 1.5-point underdogs. Reed has been playing well lately as he has returned the following values in his last 5 games: 1.5x, 2.1x, .9x, 1.5x, and a 5.5x. He draws a matchup against the Cowboys who have allowed the 15th most total passing yards this season. Reed has the following stats on the season via the NFL Research Station: 16.0% HOG Rate, 18.1% Slot Rate, 6.8 Targets/GM, 5.2 REC/GM, 41.2 RECYDS/GM, 1.72 FPTS/Target, 2 TDs, and an 11.7 FPPG. He has the following projection this week on our Domination Station 12.392 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.64x value. I know people usually do not recommend stacking in cash games but I think the Kirk-Reed is fine for cash games this week. Reed is finally coming along lately has a good matchup and a solid price. I think he exceeds value this week as a tight end on Draftkings.
- Seattle Seahawks DST ($3,200)
- The Seattle Seahawks will take on the Houston Texans this week at home. The Texans have an implied total sitting at right around 20.3-points and the Seahawks are currently 5.5-point favorites. The Seahawks have returned the following values the last 5 games: 2.0x, -0.3x, 4.4x, 4.0x, and a 1.8x value. The Seahawks have the following stats this season: 15.3 PA/GM, 190.8 Pass YDS/GM, 113.7 Rush YDS/GM, and a 9.5 FPPG. The Texans offense has the following numbers on this season: 3.5 sacks allowed, .7 fumbles, .8 interceptions per game, 206 PassYDS/GM, 138 RushYDS/GM, and 10.0 FPA. The Domination Station has a projection of right around 8.288 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.59x value. I really like the Seahawks this week as they have been a pretty steady defense all season long. There are reasonable priced this week and make a solid value play on Draftkings this week.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
The NFL season is rolling right along and we have a ton of big tournaments ahead of us for the week. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Kirk Cousins this week! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball NFL tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NFL DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
