Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? Find out how!
Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 6 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Deshaun Watson who ended up with 24.30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.6x value! For our running back free square we had Chris Thompson who ended up with 20.80 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.2x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Davante Adams who ended up with 16.40 DKFP which was good enough 2.9x value. For our tight end free square we had Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who ended up with 17.60 DKFP which was good enough for 4.1x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Atlanta Falcons who ended up with 3 DKFP which was good enough for right around 0.9x value.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week seven the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Dallas Cowboys (26.3), the New Orleans Saints (25.8), and the Tennesee Titans (25.5) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Baltimore Ravens (17.0), Cincinnati Bengals (17.8), and the New York Giants (17.8). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Tyrod Taylor QB BUF ($5,100)
- Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills will take on the Tamapa Bay Bucaneers this week. As of writing this article, there is neither a spread or a total posted for this game. In 5 games this season Tyrod has returned the following values: 3.2x, 2.0x, 3.6x, 2.4x, and 2.0x. He draws a very favorable matchup this week against a porous Buccaneers defense. On the season they have given up 301.6 YPG and are giving up 8.0 YPA. They are the 31st worst pass defense in the NFL. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Tyrod has the following numbers on the season: 182 Pass YDS/GM, 27.2 Pass ATT/GM, 6 Pass TDs, 3.8 Deep ATT/GM, 3.4 Air YDS/ATT, 6.4 Rush ATT/GM, and a 14.1 DKFP/GM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 17.636 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.46x value. I think this is a solid projection and I believe we could see a big game out of Tyrod this week. His price is super cheap and he has a great matchup this week. It’s not going to take much for Tyrod to hit value this week and he has some decent upside as well.
- Jay Ajayi RB MIA ($6,200)
- Jay Ajayi and the Miami Dolphins will take on the New York Jets at home this week. The Dolphins have an implied total sitting at right around 20.8-points and the Dolphins are currently 3-point favorites. In 5 games this season the Ajayi has returned the following values: 2.8x, .6x, .9x, 1.3x, and 2.8x. He draws a matchup against the Jets this week who have been giving up right around 138.8 Rush YDS/ GM and 4.6 YPA. We have them currently ranked as the 25th worst defense against RB’s. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Ajayi has the following numbers: 81% OPP/Share, 79% Snap/Share, 28% Dominator Rating, 19 ATT/GM, 65 YDS/GM, 3.4 YPC, and 10.7 DKFP/GM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we see that there is a projection of right around 15.68 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.53x value. I am a little bit higher on Ajayi then the Domination Station is and I think we can get 3-3.5x value from him this week. He has been finally finding his footing a little bit and I think he has a solid outing against a bad Jets run defense.
- Demaryius Thomas WR DEN ($5,800)
- Demaryius Thomas and the Denver Broncos will take on the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. The Broncos have an implied total sitting at right around 20.3-points and this game is currently a pick’em. In his last 5 games, Demaryius has returned the following values: 1.9x, 2.2x, 2.7x, .3x, and 4.2x. He will take on Chargers’ cornerback Casey Hayward who has given up a 119.6 Passer Rating and 11.7 FPTS/GM. Let’s take a look at Thomas’ stats on the season by looking at our NFL Research Station: 12.8% HOG Rate, 92% Snap Share, 28% Dominator Rating, 7.2 Targets/GM, 4.6 REC/GM, 79 YDS/GM, 1.42 FPTS/Target, and 13.6 DKFP/GM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we see that we have a projection sitting at right around 15.518 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.68x value. I think that is a pretty fair projection and I absolutely love this matchup for Demaryius against Casey Hayward this week. I am expecting a big game out of Demaryius this week and he has a ton of upside at only $5,800.
- Kyle Rudolph MIN TE ($3,800)
- Kyle Rudolph and the Minnesota Vikings will take on the Baltimore Ravens at home this week. The Vikings have an implied total sitting at right around 22.5-points and are currently 5.5-point favorites. In his last 6 games, Rudolph has delivered the following values: 2.5x, 2.0x, .3x, 1.3x, 4.3x, and 2.6x. He gets to face the Ravens defense this season who we have ranked as the 32nd worst defensive team against tight ends this season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Rudolph has the following statistics: 8.3% HOG Rating, 5.7% Slot Share, 94% Snap Share, 4.8 Targets/GM, 3.2 REC/GM, 30.8 YPG, 1.81 FPTS/Target, 2 TDs, 22.2 RDZ Target/ Shares, and a 8.8 DKFP/GM. The Domination Station has a projection for Rudolph sitting at right around 8.952 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.36x value. I am a little bit higher than the Domination Station on Rudolph because the matchup is simply too good to pass up. I am looking for nothing less than 10+ DKFP. Lock him in your Draftkings lineups this week at the tight end position.
- Minnesota Vikings MIN DST ($3,300)
- The Minnesota Vikings defense will go up against the Baltimore Ravens this week at home. The Ravens have an implied run total sitting at right around 17.0 points and the Vikings are 5.5-point favorites. The Vikings defense has returned the following values this season so far: .7x, .7x, 2.7x, 2.3x, 1.6x, and 4.8x. The Vikings get to take on the Ravens who have allowed per game: 2.0 sacks, .7 fumbles, and 1.3 INTs. They have been averaging the following yardages per game this season: 160 Pass Yards, 130 Rush Yards, and 8.5 DKFP/GM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection sitting at right around 9.363 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.84x value. I think that is a pretty solid projection and I would love if we could get 10+ DKFP from the Vikings DST this week. I think that won’t be too difficult due to how bad the Ravens offense has played this week. Lock them in as your DST on Draftkings this week.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
The NFL season is rolling right along and we have a ton of big tournament ahead of us for the week. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Tyrod Taylor this week! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball NFL tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NFL DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
