Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 4 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Carson Palmer who ended up with 20.38 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.3x value! For our running back free square we had C.J. Anderson who ended up with 15.20 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.7x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Larry Fitzgerald who ended up with 13.20 DKFP which was good enough 2.2x value. For our tight end free square we had Charles Clay who ended up with 19.20 DKFP which was good enough for 5.2x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Jacksonville Jaguars who ended up with 15 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.2x value.
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Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week four the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Dallas Cowboys (27.3), the Pittsburgh Steelers (26.0), and the Philadelphia Eagles (25.8) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Jacksonville Jaguars (17.5), Buffalo Bills (18.3), and the Baltimore Ravens (18.3). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Dak Prescott QB DAL ($6,800)
- Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will take on the Green Bay Packers this week at home. The Cowboys have the current highest implied total sitting at right around 27.3 points and the Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites. With 4 games under his belt, this season Dak has produced the following values: 2.7x, 3.2x, 4.0x, and 3.8x. Taking a look at NFL Research Station we can see that the Packers are the 21st worst defense against quarterbacks. Dak has averaged right around 35.8 Pass ATT/GM, 235 YDS/GM, 4.3 Air YDS/ATT, 8 TDs, 2.8 DEEP/ATTs, and right around 20.4 DKFP. I think we can expect to see Prescott throw the ball around 30-35 times against the Packers this week. If we go and take a look and our Domination Station we can see that we have a baseline projection sitting at right around 21.23 DKFP which would be good for right around 3.12x value. I think that is a pretty solid projection and I am looking at Dak’s range to be in-between 20-25 DKFP. He is going to be one of the highest owned QB’s this week and that will be for good reason. He plays in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week and I think we can expect to see him crush value this week.
- Melvin Gordon RB LAC ($6,000)
- Melvin Gordon and the Los Angeles Chargers will take on the New York Giants on the road this week. The Chargers have an implied total sitting at right around 21.0-points and are currently 3.0-point underdogs. Taking a look at Melvin Gordon’s season we can see that he has produced the following values: 2.9x, 3.0x, 1.8x, .6x. We are hoping to Gordon gets back on track to his week 1 and 2 values. Gordon will be facing the Giants defense who have given up the 28th most rushing yards this season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we see that Gordon has an 80% OPP/Share, 72% Snap/Share, 14 carries per game, 42 RUSH YDS/GM, 4.8 Targets/GM, and a right around 14.4 DKFP/GM. The numbers from Gordon have been subpar for a player of his caliber. The thing that intrigues me a bit about Gordon is how vocal he has been about getting more touches. They need to get him the ball if they want to succeed against a bad rushing defense in the Giants. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a 15.15 DKFP baseline projection which would be good enough for right around 2.52x value. If Gordon can get the touches I think we will see him exceed his value this week in a great matchup.
- Jarvis Landry MIA WR ($5,800)
- Jarvis Landry and the Miami Dolphins will take on the Tennesee Titans in their first home game of the season. As of writing this, there is neither a total or a spread up for this game. Jarvis Landry has put up the following performances this season for the Dolphins: 3.7x value, 1.6x value, and a 1.5x value. He gets to go up against the Tennesee Titans this week who have given up the 28th most passing yards this season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Landry has 97% Snap/Share, 11 Targets/GM, 8.3 REC/GM, 1.24 FPTS/Target, 37.5% RDZ Target/Shares, and 13.6 DKFP/GM. If we take a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection 14.3 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.47x value. I think that is a decent projection but I think with the matchup we could see Landry get us 3-3.5x values. This Miami offense has been incredibly stale, to say the least, this season, but this is the game that they must turn it around. Landry has been seeing a lot of targets and I think we can see him get right around season average of 11 targets this game. I think he will have an easy time against a weak secondary and exceed value for us.
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins NYJ TE ($3,500)
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and the New York Jets will take on the Cleveland Browns this week on the road this week. The Jets have an implied total sitting at right around 19.8 points and this game is currently a pick em. ASJ has seen action in two games this season in which he had 2.7x value and 2.9x value. He gets to face the Cleveland Browns who have given up the 23rd most passing yards this season. If we take a look at our trusty NFL Research Station we can see that ASJ 85% Snap Share, 5 Targets/GM, 4.5 REC/GM, 38.5 REC YDS/GM, 1.67 FPTS/TGT, 25.0% RDZ Target Share. Going to over to the Domination Station we can see that ASJ has a baseline projection of right around 9 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.57x value. I think that is a fair projection for him and I expect him to get us somewhere in the 10-15 DKFP range this week.
- Philadelphia Eagles PHI DST ($3,100)
- The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Arizona Cardinals this week at home. The Eagles are currently 6.5-point favorites and the Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 19.3-points. The Eagles have had the following values this season: 8.1x, 1.4x, 1.3x, and 1.2x. The Eagles have given up on average this season 285 Pass YDS/GM, 70.8 Rush YDS/GM, 23.0 PTS/GM, and 1.8 Takeaways/GM. They will take on the Cardinals who have the following offense numbers this season: 292.2 Pass YDS/GM, 57 Rush YDS/GM, 18.5 PTS/GM, 1.5 Giveaways/GM, and 4.2 sacks given up per game. If we took a look at the Domination Station we have a baseline projection for the Eagles sitting at right around 8.4 DKFP which would be right around 2.71x value. The Cardinals can throw the ball, but they can not run the ball and Carson Palmer is getting sacked the second most in the league. If the Eagles can limit the points which Vegas predicts I think we can expect them to hit and exceed value.
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We are starting to get into the swing of things as the NFL season is rolling right now. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dak Prescott this week! Good luck Army!
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