Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
I hope everyone had a great weekend as we start the NBA DFS weekend off with a decent 9 game slate tonight. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows New Orleans Pelicans (116), Golden State Warriors (113), and the Houston Rockets (112). The highest priced players on the slate are Demarcus Cousins, James Harden, Anthony Davis. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Goran Dragic PG MIA ($6,500)
- Goran Dragic and the Miami Heat will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight. The Heat have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 3.0-point underdogs. Heat are playing at a pace of right around 101.2 and the Timberwolves are playing at a pace of right around 100.8. This will not be much of a different pace matchup as both teams play at roughly the same pace. Dragic is most likely going to be matched up against Jeff Teague who isn’t that great of a defender and is in the middle of the pack with regards to point-guards tonight. Goran has the following numbers on the season so far this season: 33.5 MPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, .2 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 20.2 PPG, 32.4 FPPG, and a .97 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that Dragic has a projection of right around 35.69 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.49x value. We have Dragic slated to see right around 34 minutes. Dragic has been one of those guys who has been pretty consistent this season and has had a good stretch of games recently. I love his matchup tonight and think he is still priced reasonably. Load him up as a mid-value point guard on Draftkings tonight.
- T.J. McConnell PG PHI ($4,400)
- T.J. McConnell and the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Houston Rockets on the road tonight. The 76ers have an implied total sitting at right around 105-points and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs. 76ers are playing at a pace of right around 103.7 and the Rockets are playing at a pace of right around 99.6. This will be a pace down game for the 76ers but I still like the matchup for McConnell tonight. T.J. McConnell is likely to come off the bench tonight and he will face a Rockets team who is 28th against point guards this season. McConnell has the following numbers on the season so far this season: 20.1 MPG, 2.3 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 STLPG, 5.7 PPG, 18.1 FPPG, and a .90 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection at right around 24.73 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.62x value. We have McConnell slated for right around 29 minutes. Fultz is out which means even more of a load for McConnell tonight. He has done well this season at hitting and exceeding value and I think that continues tonight. Load him up as a nice value point guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Nikola Vucevic C ORL ($7,200)
- Nikola Vucevic and the Orlando Magic will take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight on the road. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 7.5-point underdogs. The Magic are playing at a pace of right around 107.7 and the Pelicans are playing at a pace of right around 103.7. This will slight pace-down game for the Pelicans but it will be a high-tempo game. He will be matched up against Demarcus Cousins tonight who is one of the worst center defenders on the slate tonight. He has the following numbers on the season this year: 30.3 MPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, .7 STLPG, 20.8 PPG, 41.7 FPPG, and a 1.37 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection sitting at right around 40.679 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.56x value. We have Vucevic slated for right around 32 minutes tonight. I really like this matchup for Vucevic tonight. He is one of my favorite DFS players because he has a high FPPM and is usually priced pretty fair. Load him up a solid option at the Center position tonight.
Free Square of the Night
This is a medium-sized slate but one I think we can still find an edge on. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Nikola Vucevic tonight! Good luck Army!
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