Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
For our free squares last night we had P.J. Tucker who ended up netting us right around 17.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.9x value. Another one of our free squares was Rudy Gobert who ended up with right around 44.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.9x value. Finally our last free square was Mike James who managed to put to up 15 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.4x value.
Tonight
We have a short 5-game slate ahead of us on this Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Portland Trailblazers (109), Los Angeles Clippers (108), and the Milwaukee Bucks (107). The highest priced players on the slate are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Demarcus Cousins, and Anthony Davis. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Jusuf Nurkic C POR ($6,200)
- Jusuf Nurkic and the Portland Trailblazers will take on the Los Angeles Clippers today at home. The Trailblazers have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 2.5-point favorites. The Trailblazers have been playing at a pace at right around 102.5 and the Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 103.3. This will be a slightly pace-up game for the Trailblazers and an overall fast game. He will be matched up against Deandre Jordan tonight who is a solid defender but I think Nurkic will be able to still exceed value despite the matchup. He has the following stats on the season: 25.1 MPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.0 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 12.8 PPG, 27.3 FPPG, and a 1.08 FPPM. Taking a look at your Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 35.281 DKFP which is good enough for right around 5.56x value. We have him slated for right around 29 minutes. It’s a tough matchup but I love the price for Nurkic tonight. I think he makes a solid play tonight at the center position on Draftkings.
- Dennis Smith Jr. PG/SG DAL ($5,400)
- Dennis Smith Jr. and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight on the road. The Mavericks have an implied total sitting at right around 94-points and they are currently 7.5-point favorites. The Mavericks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.7 and the Grizzlies have been playing at a pace of right around 98.0. It will be a slower game but I don’t think that will hinder Smith ability to hit value tonight. Smith will be going up against Mike Conley who was a middle of the road defender against fellow point guards last season. He has the following stats on the season this year: 29.2 MPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.3 APG, .7 STLPG, 15.0 PPG, 28.8 FPPG, and a .99 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 30.274 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.55x value. We have him slated for right around 31 minutes. I really like the spot that Smith is in tonight. I think he is still under-priced right now and I love him at either guard position on Draftkings.
- Damian Lillard PG POR ($8,500)
- We have two Portland Trailblazers who have made the Free Squares for the night. Damian Lillard and the Portland Trailblazers will take on the Los Angeles Clippers today at home. The Trailblazers have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 2.5-point favorites. The Trailblazers have been playing at a pace at right around 102.5 and the Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 103.3. As was the case with Nurkic we can see a pace-up game for the Trailblazers which should allow for some more fantasy production opportunities for Lillard tonight. Lillard is likely to be matched up against Patrick Beverley who is a really solid defender. I respect Beverley as a defender but Lillard has had some success against him in the past. Lillard has the following numbers on the season: 33.1 MPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.0 BLKPG, 1.8 STLPG, 21.0 PPG, 41.5 FPPG, and a 1.25 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 43.87 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.06x value. We have him slated for right around 35 minutes. I think Lillard’s price is too low and we all the upside that he can provide. Some people may be a bit put off due to the matchup but I am going to load him up as a point guard on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
This is a short slate but one I think we can still find an edge on. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jusuf Nurkic tonight! Good luck Army!
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