Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
For our free squares last night we had Malcolm Delaney who ended up netting us right around 19.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.5x value. Another one of our free squares was Josh Richardson who ended up with right around 38 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.9x value. Finally our last free square was Andre Drummond who managed to put to up 44 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.6x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter 6-game slate ahead of us on this Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Orlando Magic (117), Minnesota Timberwolves (116), and the Brooklyn Nets (112). The highest priced players on the slate are Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins, and Lebron James. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Damian Lillard PG POR ($8,400)
- Damian Lillard and the Portland Trailblazers will take on the New Orleans Pelicans at home tonight. The Trailblazers have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. The Trailblazers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.9 and the Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 104.9. This will be a pace-up game for Lillard and the rest of the Trailblazers. It is looking like he will be matched up against Jrue Holiday who is a plus defender, but a matchup I think Lillard can overcome. He has the following stats on the season: 32.2 MPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.3 BLKPG, 2.0 STLPG, 23.7 PPG, 45.6 FPPG, and a 1.42 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we see that we have a projection of right around 46.391 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.52x value. We have him projected to see right around 36 minutes tonight. I think Lillard is underpriced tonight and believe he can exceed his value tonight. He makes a solid play at only $8,400 tonight at the point guard position tonight on Draftkings.
- Lou Williams PG/SG LAC ($4,900)
- Lou Williams and the Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Utah Jazz at home tonight. The Clippers have an implied total sitting at right around 102-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. The Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 107.6 and the Jazz have been playing at a pace of right around 97.2. This is a pace-down game for the Clippers, but they have been playing at a much faster pace this season. The Jazz are a solid defensive team, but Lou Williams comes off the bench where he faces a weaker defensive unit. He has the following numbers on the season so far: 24.3 MPG, 3.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.0 STLPG, 15.0 PPG, 29.8 FPPG, and a 1.23 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection sitting at right around 23.79 DKPF which would be good enough for right around 4.86 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.86x value. We have him slated for right around 26 minutes. I am a little bit higher on Lou Williams than the Domination Station and I think he can exceed value at his price tonight. It’s a bit of a tough slate to find value tonight and Lou Williams is a guy I really like. Load him up as either guard positions tonight at on Draftkings tonight.
- Aaron Gordon SF/PF ORL ($6,900)
- Aaron Gordon and the Orlando Magic will take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight at home tonight. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 117-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 107.3 and the Nets have been playing at a pace of right around 112.6. This is going to be a pace-up game for the Magic and just an overall fast game tonight. Aaron Gordon will probably move around a bit tonight but it looks like he will be matched up with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is not a great defender and is the 8th worst defender tonight against small forwards. Aaron Gordon has recorded the following stats this season: 34.1 MPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 BLKPG, 14.0 PPG, 33.8 FPPG, and a .99 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 38.751 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.62x value. We have him slated for right around 34 minutes tonight. I love the price, matchup, and pace for Aaron Gordon tonight. Lock him in as either forward positions on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
This is a pretty good slate tonight with a ton of money up for grabs across the industry tonight. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Aarond Gordon tonight! Good luck Army!
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