Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
For our free squares last night we had Jordan Clarkson who ended up with 27.00 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.3x value! We also had Larry Nance who ended up with 31 DKFP which was good enough for 7.2x value. Our last free square was DeAndre Jordan who ended up with 48.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.5x value.
Tonight
It’s a huge Friday slate tonight with only 10 games on the docket. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Golden State Warriors (115), Portland Trailblazers (114), and the Brooklyn (113). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin, and DeMar DeRozan. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Terrance Ross SG/SF ORL ($4,300)
- Terrance Ross and the Orlando Magic will take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight on the road. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and they are currently 1.5-point underdogs. The Magic had a pace number of 99.1 and the Brooklyn Nets had a pace number 103.6. This is good news for the Magic players as they get a bit of a bump for playing in a pace up game. In his first game, this season Terrance Ross had a solid outing netting right around 35.5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 8.9x value. Terrance Ross is going to be matched up with Allen Crabbe who is the 18th worst shooting guard defender tonight. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can see that we have a baseline projection of right around 23.186 which would be good enough for right around 5.39x value. I think that is a nice projection and I am a little bit higher on Ross than the Domination Station and I think he can go for at least 6-6.5x value. Ross has an affordable salary, pace-up game, and a solid matchup. Lock him in as either a guard or a forward tonight on Draftkings.
- Terry Rozier PG/SG BOS ($4,200)
- Terry Rozier and the Boston Celtics will take on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight on the road. The Celtics have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and the Celtics are currently 3.0-point underdogs. The Celtics played at a pace of right around 99.3 last season and the 76ers played at a pace of right around 100.9. This will be a slight pace up game for the Celtics which will bump up their fantasy production a bit. Rozier has played in two games this season and had the following values: 6.4x value and 10.1x value. WIth the loss of Gordon Hayward, there is a lot of slack for the Celtics to pick up and Rozier has filled in nicely. He will likely be matched up against J.J. Reddick tonight who is the 15th worst SG defender on the board tonight. Taking a look at out Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.891 DKFP which would be right around 4.41x value. I am a lot higher on Rozier than the Domination Station is. He has proven already this season that he can return some crazy value. I am looking for 6-6.5x value tonight which I do not think should be a problem for Rozier tonight. He has an easy matchup and I expect him to get right around 25-30 minutes tonight. Lock him in at any of the guard positions tonight on Draftkings.
- Malcolm Brogdon PG/SG MIL ($5,000)
- Malcolm Brogdon and the Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight at home. The Bucks have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and the Bucks are currently 2.0-point underdogs. The Bucks played at a pace of right around 96.7 last year and the Cavs played at a pace of right around 98.4. This is a pace-up matchup for the Bucks which should increase their normal fantasy production. Brogdon has played in one game this season in which he netted 26.8 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.3x value. It looks like he is going to be matched up against Derrick Rose who is the 17th worst point guard defender tonight. If we take a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 29.217 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.84x value. I think that is a great projection for Brogdon and I tend to agree with that projection. This should be a close game tonight and I expect Brogdon to see right around 30-35 minutes tonight. Brogdon disappointed a bit in his first game this season but I expect him to crush value tonight. Lock him in as a guard on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
This is probably the best slate of the season so far so let’s try and take advantage tonight. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Terry Rozier tonight! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
