Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
For our free squares last night we had Jaylen Brown who ended up with 29.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.6x value! We also had Trevor Ariza who ended up with 7.5 DKFP which was good enough for 1.5x value. Our last free square was John Wall who ended up with 49.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5x value.
Tonight
It’s a short Thursday slate tonight with only 3 games on the docket. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Oklahoma CIty Thunder (114), Los Angeles Clippers (112), and the Toronto Raptors (111). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin, and DeMar DeRozan. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Jordan Clarkson PG/SG LAL ($4,300)
- Jordan Clarkson and the Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight at home. The Lakers have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. Jordan Clarkson had an alright season last year and he will see a ton of minutes to start the year off as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out for a couple of games. The Lakers had a pace number of 101.8 and the Clippers had a pace number of 98.9. Let’s take a look at his stats from last season: 29 MPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 14.6 PPG, 24.2 DKFPG, .83 DKFP/M, and a 23 usage. He’ll likely be the 6th man tonight but I think he will get all the minutes he can handle tonight. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 22.185 which is good enough for right around 5.75x value. He is also projected to get right around 29 minutes tonight as well. I think that is a pretty fair projection for Clarkson tonight and he has the scoring potential to possibly get us 6-6.5x value.
- Larry Nance SF/PF LAL ($4,300)
- I really think there is going to be a ton of value to be had in this Clippers vs Lakers game which is why I start of the free squares with back to back Lakers. Nance is an interesting player and it looks like he will be slated in the starting rotation tonight with Julius Randle dealing with some back issues. He had the following numbers last season: 22.4 MPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, .6 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 7.0 PPG, 20.0 DKFPG, .90 DKFP/M, and a 13 usage. It looks like he will be matched up against Blake Griffin who is the 5th worst power forward defensively tonight. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.809 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.15x value. He is projected to get right around 25 minutes. I am little bit more bullish on Nance than the Domination Station and I think he has a 5.5x floor tonight. He has nice flexibility and has a solid matchup tonight lock him in at either of the forward positions.
- DeAndre Jordan C LAC ($7,500)
- DeAndre Jordan and the Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight technically as an away team. The Clippers have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and the Clippers are currently 5.5-point favorites. The Lakers had a pace number of 101.8 and the Clippers had a pace number of 98.9. This will be a pace up game for the Clippers which should benefit DeAndre greatly. He had the following numbers last season: 31.5 MPG, 13.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.5 BPG, .6 SPG, 12.8 PPG, 35.8 DKFPG, 1.14 DKFP/M, and a 14 usage. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 39.716 DKPF which would be good enough for right around 5.14x value. He is projected to get right around 32 minutes. I think that is a fair baseline projections but I think DeAndre has a ton of of upside tonight in what should be a faster paced game for him. I love his upside, price, and matchup tonight.
Free Square of the Night
Short slate tonight, but I still think there is an edge to be had tonight. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with DeAndre Jordan tonight! Good luck Army!
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