Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
For our free squares last night we had Jaylen Brown who ended up with 36 DKFP which was good enough for right around 9.7x value! We also had Kyrie Irving who ended up with 50.50 DKFP which was good enough for 6.1x value. Our last free square was Draymond Green who ended up with 43.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.2x value!
Tonight
We have our first big slate today with 11 games on the docket for tonight. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows Houston Rockets (113), Washington WIzards (112), and the Portland Trailblazers (111). The highest priced players on the slate are Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, and James Harden. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Jaylen Brown SG/SF BOS ($3,900)
- Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics will take on the Milwaukee Bucks on the road tonight. The Celtics have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 3-point favorites. The Celtics had a pace of 104.2 last night and the Bucks had a pace of right around 97 last season. Brown makes his way on the free squares for a second consecutive night after putting together a solid performance in the season. With news of Gordon Hayward being out for the season this only opens up more opportunities for Jaylen. He played 40 minutes, had a 29 usage, .90 DKFP/M, and 25 points. He will probably see a ton of different matchups tonight as he is a versatile player and can play multiple positions on the court. If we take a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have Jaylen projected for right around 35 minutes for 24.45 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.27x value. I think this is a pretty solid projection and I might even go out on a limb and say we are going to be looking to possibly get 7x value out of Jaylen Brown tonight. He is going to get all the minutes he can handle in what should be a pretty competitive game. His price is simply too low again tonight and he offers nice positional flexibility. Lock Jaylen as either a forward or guard on Drafkings tonight.
- Trevor Ariza SF/PF HOU ($4,900)
- Trevor Ariza and the Houston Rockets will take on the Sacramento Kings on the road tonight. The Rockets have an implied run total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 7.5-point favorites. The Rockets had a pace number of 103 last season and the Kings had a pace number of 97 last season. In his first game of the season, Trevor Ariza netted 27.5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.1x value. He played 38 minutes. It looks like Ariza is going to be guarded by Buddy Hield tonight who is the 20th worst defender against small forwards tonight. There is also a possibility that Chris Paul may not play tonight which makes Ariza even more intriguing but he is still in play for me in Chris Paul does indeed play. Last season he averaged over 34 minutes, 26.7 DKFP, and had a 14 usage. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a 24.715 DKFP projection which would be good enough for right around 5.04x value. I am a little bit more bullish on Ariza then our Domination Station I think he can reach 30 DKFP tonight in a very favorable matchup.
- John Wall PG WSH ($9,800)
- John Wall and the Washington Wizards open up their season against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight at home. The Wizards have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and the Wizards are currently 7.0-point favorites. The Wizards played at a pace of around 100 last season and the 76ers played at a pace of around 101 which is good news for Wall as this will be a pace-up game for him. Wall had the following numbers last season: 36.3 MPG, 4.1 RPG, 10.5 APG, .7 BPG, 2.0 SPG, 23.6 PPG, 49.4 DKFPG, and a 32 usage. He will most likely be going up against Jaryd Bayless tonight who is a negative defender and the 10th worst defender on the board against point guards. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can that we have a projection of right around 50.04 DKFP which is good enough for right around 5.11x value. He is also projected to go for right around 36 minutes. On big slates like today, I sometimes like to take a stand on the certain stud player I like the most and will be building my lineups around. For tonight I think that player is going to be John Wall. I agree with the Domination Station projection for him and I think he brings a ton of upside in a juicy matchup tonight against a mediocre Philly defense. His price is still pretty solid for what he brings to the table tonight. I am expecting a huge outing from John Wall tonight.
Free Square of the Night
NBA is back and there are a ton of huge tournaments across the industry tonight. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jaylen Brown tonight! Good luck Army!
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