DraftKings switched the format of the NFL Pick-Em contests and although it appears like they have taken most of the opportunity to roll different stack variations away from the crowd, we still have a significant edge if we use the right strategy. I am going to write this column, much like last week, one NFL week at a time – especially if they continue to modify the Pick-Em formatting.
For Week 3, we want to grab as many high-volume players, with high floors, as possible, because there are some nice and flashy names in these tiers that will carry much more ownership and are considerably more volatile than the guys that we will use.
All projections used in this column were directly off of our incredibly successful Domination Station (optimization tool) that helped a handful of members pull in 4-figure wins in Week 2 of the NFL season.
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers has the highest projected points by our Domination Station (22.55 points) and is likely the safest bet in the first tier. Matt Ryan (20.58) and Derek Carr (20.16) are the two options outside of our top projected QB.
Rodgers might carry the most ownership just on name brand alone and I think that could be a mistake to eat the chalk at QB. It is a position where the scores from the elite are normally within a few points of each other and this is why Carr is my choice.
Carr will likely be the lowest owned QB out of the first tier. That said, if you want to go slightly contrarian in a different tier I would not blame you. Rodgers seems the likeliest to get past the 20.00 point plateau, as he seemingly has done it since the dawn of time.
Tier 2
Julio Jones and Antonio Brown absolutely have the highest upsides in this category, while Le’Veon Bell has the highest floor. Bell received 31 touches in Week 2 and looked pretty good against the Vikings defense which had five Pro-Bowlers in 2016.
Bell is projected by our Domination Station to score 23.37 points compared to 21.15 for Brown and 20.06 for Jones. I think a nice strategy for this new format of picking out of three seemingly random players, is to just create the highest floor possible (inherently provided to us by running backs). If you are playing some of these massive large field GPPs then you probably need the type of ceiling that Jones or Brown provides.
Tier 3
We have five running backs in this category and two of them are above the rest in my opinion. Kareem Hunt projects to score 18.38 points while Jay Ajayi (fresh off his 30 touches in Week 2) is projected to score 18.07 points.
Ty Montgomery is a nice option, likely one of the safer options out of all of the tiers but with a capped upside because he’ll catch several passes per game but not ever rush for 100-yards for the 3.0 point bonus.
Ajayi has incredible upside against a poor Jets defense but you’ll have to make sure he’s healthy enough and active on Sunday morning. I wouldn’t blame you for rolling with Hunt or Montgomery though.
Tier 4
We don’t have a running back in this tier and this will surely be an ownership play with a decent floor. Keenan Allen will likely be the lowest or second lowest owned wide receiver in this tier and is a fantastic option for the PPR format that DK has.
Tier 5
This tier is our stacking tier because if we went with Carr we can roll out either Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper. I think both are viable options but it mainly depends on what type of contest you are entered into.
If you are in a large field GPP, then go with Cooper (7th highest projection by our DS), as Crabtree will have higher ownership this week after his Week 2 explosion. If you are in a smaller GPP or leagues and cash games, then roll with Crabtree for his touchdown upside and red zone efficiency.
Tier 6
Devonta Freeman is the clear play in this tier for smaller GPPs and leagues/cash games. He fills that role of giving us a high floor player with a consistent workload. Our domination station projects him for 16.84 points which is right on par with the wide receivers in this tier, but because of his position, he is more probably of hitting his projection. The wide receivers have a higher probability of smashing their projection or throwing up a dud.
The wide receivers have a higher probability of smashing their projection or throwing up a dud. This is why everything depends on your contest selection. Tyreek Hill is the play for the large field GPPs.
Tier 7
This is a massive tier filled with 10 options. While there are better-projected options (Cook, Anderson, Hopkins, Thomas, Sanders, and Adams), Marshawn Lynch allows us to go with the Oakland Raiders onslaught.
The Raiders have the highest implied team total (29.00 points) and if we roll Carr, Lynch, Cooper/Crabtree, we are almost guaranteeing that if the Raiders go bonkers that we will capture a large majority, if not all, of the touchdowns that the offense scores.
While we have high floor players in every single tier to provide us with a soft cushion if the Raiders onslaught doesn’t pay off, it allows us to go for broke with the three-man Raiders stack. If we didn’t go with high floor plays in all of the other tiers then this strategy doesn’t work because if it doesn’t hit then our lineup is sunk.
This strategy also works with the Packers offense if we roll out Rodgers, Montgomery, and Adams. The strategy is solid but the choices are in your hands.
Please drop pictures of your winnings in #DailyDonuts and the #Winning-Lineups channel if you use this advice for the Pick-Em strategy. My Week 2 strategy had three different DFS Army members win small GPPs for a cool $150 off $3 investments.
Here’s to another successful week for the VIPs! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and throw out Twitter polls.
