Week four is upon us, and I have a new concept for you guys. #TheCheckdown!! Simply put, this will be an article designed to turn all we talk about into a visual graphic for quick verification. We can’t cover all the players at all the positions here, but we can cover quite a few. And, we can get most of the relevant players in there. This article will be locked up any week now and only be available to our VIP members. But, with the response it received last week, I conned the boss into letting me run it at least one more time. The more of you that click the links in this article and give us a try, the longer this stays public info. I love writing public info, so I encourage you to do your part in keeping this piece free!
NOTE – This is the last free week. The Checkdown is going VIP only in week 5.
If you are peeking at this from outside the DFS Army, I suggest you take a look at our VIP membership inside. We offer conversation through our Slack Channels covering every major DFS sport. We also have coaching and guru tips for all those sports. Inside the VIP areas, you will also gain access to our spreadsheets, tools, private strategy articles, and the machine driving everything………..Domination Station (our lineup generator and optimizer). The Domination Station Optimizer popped a couple of 10k winners in NBA, a 50k winner in Nascar, and Multiple 5 figure winners in MLB and last season, 5 and 6 figure NFL cashes. Dare I say it’s the best optimizer going when considering our projections and it’s customizability. If you are intrigued, I will include a little more info at the bottom of the article especially for you.
That said, let’s take a peek at what will be our VIP Only article moving forward…
Quarterbacks
When it comes to “checking the boxes,” I can tell you QBs that bring value each week have some common qualities. They play at home. They are favored to win in Vegas (often by a decent amount). Their implied team totals are over 24, preferably over 26, and they are remarkably efficient. QB is the only NFL position that DOES NOT benefit from volume. Yes, pass attempts help some, but efficiency trumps all. Therefore, I included some efficiency metrics like QBR (total QB rating) and Production Premium (This stat measures a QB’s productivity across league average situations. Average is given a zero. Above average QBs have positive numbers and below average QBs have negative numbers. If the box is checked, his number was positive.) Another metric I’m using is aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed), and it comes from outside source, Chris Raybon. Essentially, this metric takes out the luck factors and gives us a schedule adjusted DvP ranking. A checked box here indicates a bottom 10 opponent, and therefore, a soft matchup. We use all these categories to paint a picture. One of the best possible situations bringing the most consistent chances of good scores.
This is a week with tighter pricing across the sites. Well, more Draftkings than Fanduel, but it is hard to spend up at QB this week. Tom Brady is the bomb, but he’s pricey as hell. Matt Ryan is in a good spot, but hasn’t been bringing the value we want to see for a top tier QB. You cheapest 6-box QB is Dak Prescott this week, and he’s largely who I’m rolling out. Yes, I buy my own product. Trevor Siemien is also fine, as is Tyrod Taylor. With these less expensive QBs in solid spots to produce, we are afforded the opportunity to spend up across the board, or go high at RB or maybe reach for that stud WR we haven’t had a chance to take with impunity so far this season.
For game breakdowns, listen to: Geek’s Vegas Lines Week 4 Podcast
For player picks, listen to: Geek’s Picks Week 4 Podcast
Running Backs
To reiterate, these categories are mathematically proven to correlate very strongly with a player hitting DFS value in relation to his salary.
Again, running backs at home perform better most weeks. I think it’s obvious we want them favored in Vegas so they have the best chance of playing within a positive game script. Leading teams run far more often than trailing teams, and we want our RBs being leaned on. Volumebenefits a running back in a big way, more than efficiency. Give me a running back in a bad matchup scheduled for 25 touches over a running back in a cherry matchup only set to receive 8 touches all day long. See my point?
The RZ column indicates usage around the goal line. Nearly all rushing touchdowns are scored from inside the red zone, and a nasty majority are scored from inside the 5 yard line alone. Using a running back that is also used on the goal line exponentially increases your chances of scoring touchdowns. Grab a running back getting all the touches AND being used near the goal line and you are really onto something special. If you can’t tell, all this stuff ties together. Hence…..checking the boxes.
Look no further than the top of the list! Ezekiel Elliott is in a very chalky spot. He’s as much a must play in your cash games as you can get. However, one most aren’t talking up heavily is Dalvin Cook. Dalvin gets the usage, as shown in the box checking graphic above, and he finds himself in a prime spot should Case Keenum return to planet earth this week. Those are you 6-box checkers this week. Others in great spots are Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette, and even some Todd Gurley. I’d like to see more on the Melvin Gordon knee issue to use him this week.
So, a lot of my stuff is chalky. If you are into pivot plays, read: Donuts’ GPP Pivots for Fanduel and Draftkings
Wide Receivers
The WR category was a bitch. Let me explain why. There are so damned many of them!!! No way I can thoroughly break this category down for you every week. My pay grade isn’t near high enough. What I can do is toss you some relevant target WRs and we can hopefully extrapolate from there.
The target threshold for a WR hitting value is 8. From there, of the WRs hitting value in a given week, 66% of them or more were targeted at least 8 times. Foolproof? No. Strong indicator? You can bet your bile duck. Of course, we also want red zone work with our receivers. 80 yard touchdowns are nice, but they are rare. We can also predict red zone work better than touchdowns, and it helps that the majority of receiving touchdowns also come from within the red zone. That’s the last place on the field we want our receiver ignored……amirite, Amari CooperP?
We also want a 25% target share on our respective teams. Target hogs are displaying a few things stats don’t tell you. Most notably might be the skill required to get the hell open in the first place. Another might be his quarterback’s infatuation with him. Chemistry can’t be shown statistically, but target share can be. So, we can extrapolate the higher the percentage of a team’s targets our receiver gets, the more balls he catches, the more yards he racks up, and usually the more touchdowns he tends to score compared to the others.
Road dogs are important. Everyone looks for the shootout. And, that’s fine. But, road dogs get garbage time! Tiempo de garbaj benefits a WR much more than a QB. You can also sort of bank on it if you play the quarterback’s favorite target. When the losing team falls behind, the opposing defense usually falls into prevent mode. And certain WRs shine like crazy there.
Another important category to watch is implied team totals. It stands to reason that a huge total over 27 leads to a fantasy bonanza for all players, and we definitely will be watching for that. But, what people don’t know is the severely low total (less than 18) can too. Why? Fantasy site algorithms. There is evidence surfacing (thanks again to Chris Raybon) showing the sites might be underpricing receivers in this spot. Give me Antonio BrownP at $6000 and I won’t bat an eye over locking him into everything I do that week. Now, it’s not quite that exaggerated, but lowering that salary does play into helping our receivers hit value in a given week. Knowing this, we can exploit that loophole. Give me a receiver in a very low total game, AND make him the road dog……you have me licking my proverbial chops at very low ownerships (which is part of why he’s priced down in the first place….no one is going to be playing him).
These are your chalkier WRs this week that should be carrying most of the ownership across the industry. You will notice household names like A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, and DeAndre Hopkins. Names you won’t see, but very much should, are Jarvis Landry (averaging the targets, POW, and RZ work easily), Pierre Garcon (a little sneakier), or Michael Thomas. I cut this list, this week, at about 5% ownership as projected on DFS Army’s fully customizable optimizer, the Domination Station. There will be fluctuations, but I needed to make this graphic visually appealing to you, the reader.
Watch: NFL Tutorial of Domination Station
In a week we might need to pay down on Draftkings, these WRs checking boxes are going to be important for you to identify and roster. Rishard Matthews finds himself in a solid matchup. So does Muhammed Sanu, another where ownership isn’t projecting too high and, therefore, left off the list. But, Sanu is home, favored, catching 6+ targets per game, seeing RZ usage (which Julio Jones is not yet), and drawing a favorable cornerback matchup. Don’t sleep on Golden Tate, either. The industry podcasts are not mentioning him often, and he checks four boxes this week!
Tight Ends
From here it gets much simpler.
Tight ends are one of the most volatile positions in all of DFS NFL. So, we want to take a bottom up approach in a lot of cases. Sure, people love to punt them, but these people are also doing this correctly whether they know it or not. You simply cannot afford to miss and bust terribly with a player costing you upwards of $7000. It’s simply too damaging to your roster.
Again, we see TEs are receivers at their cores. Find me the few getting wide receiver targets and opportunities, and I’ll roster them nearly every chance I get. It goes without saying we want them seeing work in the red zone being that most of their scoring comes from touchdowns due to the lower volume of the position. It should also go without saying a higher implied team total helps spread the fantasy production around enough to trickle down to our tight ends. And, most importantly they are tied to a QB’s performance in a big way. So, we want them also at home and favored out of Vegas. Check all those boxes, and you have yourself one chalky tight end for the week.
Look at that Draftkings pricing! If you loved Zach Ertz the first few weeks, the party is over, brother. He is only $300 shy of Rob Gronkowski, who checks all but one box….matchup. But, I think we can agree Gronk is matchup proof when healthy. This is a week of #GronkChalk on DK for those paying up in the spot. I’m not sure I trust Jimmy Graham, but he did have a solid outing in TEN. I was wanting more Charles Clay, but looking at only the one box checked is spooking me a bit. Then, I see why Jason Witten is priced up. He’s been off to a great start this year, getting the targets when Dez is bracketed or facing elite corners, and checks just as many boxes this week as Gronk. I think I might prefer him over Jimmy or Delanie Walker, especially if fading Zeke in tourneys and stacking with Dak….
Defenses
Another pretty simple spot here. We won’t have a lot of boxes to check. But, those categories we are looking at are important. Our defense MUST be favored. Even Denver suffered when they were underdogs last year. If you knew that, you dodged a few land mines. If you didn’t, you probably blamed it on variance. Ha…..not so. Being favored is of massive importance to a defense.
I suppose I prefer my defenses playing in front of the home crowd where they feel the energy of the fans, but history suggests the home/road thing doesn’t matter a ton. Well, not nearly like being favored vs being the underdog does. So much so, I am paying extra attention to the bigger spreads with the “greater than 6 points” column.
The second part to this is the opponent’s implied team totals. We want them as low as they can go…..you know, limbo low. Can you hear the stupid roller skating music? I can. Under 18 points and you have yourself a chalky defense. Under 22 isn’t terrible, but we want our opposing quarterback desperately trying to throw his team back into the game. We aren’t as worried about points allowed. The opponent implied total is more a sign of a brutally bad team prone to playing very bad football. And, we want that happening with our defense sitting back with it’s mouth wide open.
Of course, SEA checks all the boxes with the Colts coming out west. Your other two great spots are New England and Arizona, who are also facing either bad teams or inept offenses. I’d like to see all three of these teams higher in the takeaway and sack category, but you can’t argue the math. And, the math says we look for huge favorites facing teams with low implied totals. Two others that surprising did not make the boxes, but check a lot of them, are ATL and DAL. Both are sizable favorites facing lower implied total teams. Both are at home, too, and in situations calling for the opponent to be chucking it late. Dallas is hella cheap, too, if you are inclined to think for yourself and not use these graphics as complete crutches. These graphics are designed to get you thinking correctly, not spoonfeed you every possible play.
If you want more on picking defenses, give Aaron’s Selecting Defenses article a spin.
Kickers Are People, Too
Finally, we arrive at the end of the rainbow. I hope you noticed that color scheme. Yes, it was by design. I know I said kickers are people, but they really aren’t. This is just another category we can really simplify with a few columns and check boxes. It’s also another category to build from the bottom up. Across a season, kickers don’t have a very wide spread in their production. And, from a DFS standpoint, they don’t have a large gap in what they cost you against your cap, either. Don’t be afraid to pay up for one, but don’t think you have to if a cheaper kicker is in a solid spot. Our last graphic helps you see which are in great spots quickly and efficiently.
Home, favored, implied to score over 24 points, and I would even include a little caveat………….playing in non-windy conditions. Well, crosswinds anyway. Straight downwind would be a good thing.
Ok, well if I have to, I will be opting (most times) for the cheapest kicker checking all the boxes. This week, it’s none other than Phil Dawson. If you have money burning a hole in your salary cap pocket, there’s nothing wrong with paying up a bit. It’s not nearly like the pricing difference between Muhammed Sanu and Julio Jones. It’s only about $600 most weeks to the very top. That is a much smaller percentage of your cap, and an angle most DFS players don’t think about. It’s really not a big deal. That’s why you find names like Dan Bailey and Matt Bryant near the tops of the lists weekly in spite of their price tags.
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