Welcome to the inaugural run for one of our new features in the Army. Each week, we will dig a little deeper into the lines and see just where the sharps are laying their money. Many people make money just by fading the public. We should aim to be in that number.
ATL @ CHI
This is the first game the public and sharps disagree on. I have this line opening at ATL -7 and the public money poured in on the Falcons. Despite that being the case, the line stayed. This is a potential sign that respected money is coming in on the other side. As time went on, the sharp money took over. The line is down to ATL -6.
Late in the week, we found out that Prince Amukamara would miss the game and that has caused the line to revert to ATL -6.5. This has caused more money to come in on Atlanta, but don’t be fooled. The sharps still believe that Chicago will be more competitive than they are given credit for. The total has dropped precipitously to 48.5 from 51, with money coming in on the under. This should give us a little more confidence in the Chicago offense and slightly less in Atlanta defense.
NYJ @ BUF
Nobody has any faith in what the Jets will do this season, except getting the number 1 pick in the draft next year. This line opened at BUF -6.5 and it ballooned all the way up to BUF -10. Enter the sharp bettors. This line has come down to BUF -8.
What the public is missing is that there is massive turnover on the Bills defense and they got worse in their run stopping ability. Bilal Powell has his best shot at being the man since the Jets tried to trade Matt Forte this year. Given that they are road dogs, we will likely see the Jets lean heavily on Powell. We can’t forget the circus that was their offseason, too. The Jets will have to throw, so Robbie Anderson isn’t a bad shout in GPPs. The Bills let their best cover corner go to a division rival amongst the wholesale changes they made.
OAK @ TEN
This is one of the hottest games on the slate, on paper. The public loves the Raiders, but the sharps are all over the Titans. The game opened up at a PICK, but sharp money has forced the line to TEN -3. Oakland’s defense last year was trending in the right direction by the end of the year and they were expected to take further steps this year. That is going to be a work in progress, as they haven’t shown anything in the preseason. Tennessee has upgraded their receiver corp. It should be a tight game, as some late smart money likes Oakland to cover.
This is the type of game we like. It’s tight with a high total. This is a potential game stack situation, with Tennessee getting the better end of things in the end. Everybody is in play here.
CAR @ SF
Another public bias is that San Fran is not a good football team. What used to be a highly watched team is somewhat an afterthought. Well, if you haven’t been paying attention, they play well at home. They also got Kyle Shanahan in town running things. Remember that potent Falcons attack from last year? The public apparently hasn’t paid attention, but you aren’t the public, are you?
Carlos Hyde will be a chalky pick. Use him at your own risk or in cash, but I really like the 49ers defense. The line opened up at -6 but has dropped to -4.5. With an O/U of 48, it seems like a stay away, but the moneyline has dropped for Carolina. The Panthers opened at -255 but the moneyline is at -195. The 49ers will be a sneaky defensive play. Interesting to note that almost 90% of the public money is on the panthers to cover.
PHI @ WAS
This game is a little different in that the public and the sharps are betting on the Eagles. They opened as 1 point road dogs, but are now 1 point favorites. Nothing monumental to report here but it’s good to know the sharps can agree with the public sometimes.
Good luck in what is sure to be a crazy week 1.
