Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 3 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Kirk Cousins who ended up with 29.80 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.9x value! For our running back free square we had Ty Montgomery who ended up with 13.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.9x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Rashard Higgins who ended up with 3 DKFP which was good enough 0.8x value. For our tight end free square we had Jack Doyle who ended up with 2.60 DKFP which was good enough for 0.7x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Philadelphia Eagles who ended up with 4 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.3x value.
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Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week four the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the New England Patriots (28.5), the Atlanta Falcons (28.3), and the Dallas Cowboys (26.5) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows New York Jets (18.0), Cleveland Browns (18.8), and the San Francisco 49ers (18.8). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Carson Palmer QB ARI ($6,100)
- Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals will take the San Francisco 49ers this week at home this week. The Cardinals have an implied total sitting at right around 25.5-points and they are currently 6.5 point favorites. The Cardinals as a team have struggled a bit this season but from a fantasy perspective, Carson Palmer has actually been pretty solid. In three games this season he has posted the following values 2.0x, 3.3x, and 4.1x value. Opportunity is the name of the game in daily fantasy football and Carson Palmer has been averaging right around 44 pass attempts a game this season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Carson is at the top of the list when it comes down to deep ball attempts with 8.3 Deep/ATT per game. He also averages around 4.6 Air Yards/ATT. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection around 18.48 DKFP which would be right around 3x value. I think this is a good baseline projection but I am a little bit higher on Palmer. I think we can expect to get us anywhere between 20-25 DKFP which would go a long way for him to exceed value. I love the price and matchup for Palmer this week and I think he is one of the best QB options on DK this week.
- C.J. Anderson RB DEN ($5,600)
- C.J. Anderson and the Denver Broncos will take on the Oakland Raiders at home this week. The Broncos have an implied total sitting at right around 24.5 points and are currently 3-point favorites. In 3 games this season CJ has had quite the rollercoaster results. He has the following values this season: 2.1x, 7.1x (!), and 1.1x value. I do like his price and matchup against the Raiders this week. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Anderson has had 65% of the OPP/Shares and 77% of the Snap/Shares. He has averaged right around 18 carries per game for about 78 yards rushing per game. I expect we will see him get right around 15-20 carries this week. If we take a look at the Domination Station we can see that he has a projection of right around 15.05 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.69x value. He is one of the highest FPTs/$ guy this week and he is affordable enough to allow us to have some roster flexibility. I love using CJ at either the RB spot this week and I don’t mind you using him as a flex as well on Draftkings.
- Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR ($6,100)
- Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals will take the San Francisco 49ers this week at home this week. The Cardinals have an implied total sitting at right around 25.5-points and they are currently 6.5 point favorites. Larry has had the following values to start of the season so far: 2.3x, 0.8x, and 5.8x values. I think we will see him have a pretty solid game this week in a favorable matchup. If we take a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the 49ers are the 32nd worst team against opposing WRs. We also can see that Larry has a 100% Snap/Shares, 11.3 Targets/GM, 7.3 REC/GM, 81.3 YDS/GM, 1.54 FPTS/Target, 8 RDZ/Targets, and 30.8 RDZTGT/Shares. There is a lot to like in the numbers with Larry Fitzgerald this week. Taking a look at out Domination Station we have Larry projected for right around 16.36 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.68x value. I know a lot of people say it is frowned upon to stack a QB/WR in cash but in the right circumstances like this week, I do not mind a Palmer/Fitzgerald stack in cash. He is almost a must play for me in cash this week and let’s lock him in on Draftkings this week.
- Charles Clay BUF TE ($3,700)
- Charles Clay and the Buffalo Bills will take on the Atlanta Falcons this week on the road. The Bills have an implied total sitting at right around 20.3 points and are currently 8-point underdogs. Taking a look at Clay’s season e can see that he has had the following values on the year: 4.8x, 1.8x, and 4.8x values. We would not mind being in that range again for this week. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we see that the Falcons have been the 27th worst team against TEs this year. Clay has been around 89% of the Snap/Shares, 6 Targets/GM, 4.3 REC/GM, 38.3 RECYDS/GM, 2.03 FPTS/Target, 5 RDZ/Targets, and 50% of the RDZTarget/Shares. Let’s take a look at his Domination Station projection which is currently sitting at right around 10.48 DKFP which would be good enough for 2.83x value. I really like that projection and I think we could be ecstatic if we could get right around 3-3.5x value. Look for the Bills to pass a bunch in this game if they get down which would be very beneficial for Clay. He is one of my favorite value tight ends this week on Draftkings.
- Jacksonville Jaguars JAX DST ($3,600)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the New York Jets this week on the road. The Jets have an implied total sitting at right around 17.5 points and the Jaguars are currently 3-point favorites. Taking a look at the Jaguars values this season we can see they have had the following games: 7.6x value, -0.3x value, and 3.5x value. They get to face the Jets this week who have been ranked 30th in PassYds/GM, 23rd in RushYds/GM, 22nd in PTS/GM, 15th in total sacks, and 16th in INTs. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that the Jags have a projection sitting at right around 9.33 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.59x value. I think that is a pretty fair projection and I think we can get 10+DKFP out of the Jags this week. I don’t like getting too cute when it comes to defenses. Attack bad quarterbacks and bad offensive lines. I love the Jags as my DST on Draftkings this week.
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We are starting to get into the swing of things as the NFL season is rolling right now. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Larry Fitzgerald this week! Good luck Army!
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