Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 1 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Tom Brady who ended up with 33.78 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.3x value. For our running back free square we had Ty Montgomery who ended up with 29.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Adam Thielen who ended up with 8.40 DKFP which was good enough 1.7x value. For our tight end free square we had Coby Fleener who ended up with 12.30 DKFP which was good enough for 4.0x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Oakland Raiders who ended up with 9 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value.
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Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week one the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the New England Patriots (28.8), Oakland Raiders (28.5), and the Atlanta Falcons (26.8), The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Houston Texans (15.3), New York Jets (18.0), and the Cinncinatti Bengals (15.5). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Kirk Cousins QB WSH ($6,100)
- Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins will take on the Oakland Raiders this week at FedEx Field. The Redskins have an implied total sitting at right around 25.5-points and they are currently 3-point underdogs. Cousins has been off to a bit of a slower start this year as in his first two games he has gone for 2.1x value and 1.9x value. I expect him to exceed those numbers in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the day. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see the Raiders are 20th against QB’s, 15th against WR1, 8th against WR2, 13th against WR Other, and 29th against TEs. I think we are going to see Cousins really rack up some passing attempts in this game against the Raiders. He averaged 33.5 Pass/ATT and 6.3 PassYds/ATT. I think we can expect Cousins to throw somewhere in the range of 33-37 times on Sunday. Going over to the Domination Station we see a projection of right around 20.16 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.3x value. We would be pretty pleased if we could get that type of production out of Cousins this weekend. Like I said earlier though I expect this to be a high-scoring game and I would not be surprised if we can reach that 3-3.5x value on Draftkings for Cousins. He makes a great QB play on Draftkings this week at an affordable price with a ton of upside. Lock in him in and pair him with one of his favorite Targets.
- Ty Montgomery RB GB ($6,900)
- No this is a not a typo as Ty Montogomery makes it back to back weeks as our running back free square. Montgomery and the Packers will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 8.5-point favorites and have an implied total sitting at 27.5 points. Montgomery has been off to a great season so far as he has recorded games of 3.3x value and 5x value respectively. He draws another good matchup against the Bengals this week. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we see that Montgomery has an 87% opportunity share along with a 95% snap share. He has averaged right around 15 carries a game along with seeing 11 Targets in two games this season. If we meander over to the Domination Station we can see that Montgomery has a projection of right around 17.5 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.54x value. I think that is a fair projection and how much upside Montgomery returns will be based on how many times he gets in the end zone. We all know he is going to get plenty of touches. His price has risen quite a bit but I still like him as one of my RB’s or at the flex position this week on Draftkings.
- Rashard Higgins CLE WR ($4,000)
- Rashard Higgins and the Cleveland Browns will take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Browns have an implied total sitting at right around 21.3 and are currently 1.5-point favorites. Rashard Higgins was literally on nobodies radar last week but he put together a solid game. He ended the game against the Ravens with 7 catches out of 11 Targets. He also players 54/71 snaps as well. With Corey Coleman getting injured against I think Higgins makes an intriguing option this week. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the Colts are 27th in the league vs. WR1. There is relatively little data on Higgins as he was a practice squad guy but I think he will see somewhere in the range of 5-8 targets this week. Taking a look at out Domination Station we have a projection for Higgins that is sitting at right around 9.9 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.5x value. I am a little bit more bullish on Higgins as I think he goes and gets us right around 3-3.5x value with a ton of upside. There is definitely some risk in this play but I love the affordability and potential upside we are getting with Higgins this week. You can play him at any of the WR spots and I like his as an option in the Flex as well.
- Jack Doyle IND TE ($3,600)
- Jack Doyle and the Indianapolis Colts will take on the Cleveland Browns at home in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have an implied total sitting at right around 19.8-points and are currently 1.5-point underdogs. Jack Doyle has had one phenomenal outing and one so-so outing this season so far. He has games of 1.6x value and 5.5x value. If we gander over at our NFL Research Station we can see the Browns are the 30th worst teams against TEs. That is a positive sign for Doyle as he should have no problem exploiting the Browns pass defense. He will also be somewhat of a security blanket for the replacement Jacoby Brissett. In his two games this season he saw 3 and 8 targets and he caught 10/11 of those this season. If I were to put a prediction on targets for Doyle this week I would expect him to see around 6 targets. That would go a long way to help him reach and or exceed value. If we take a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a solid 10.40 DKFP projection for Doyle that would be good enough for right around 2.9x value. I think that is a pretty fair baseline projection and depending on the game flow we could see Doyle has potential 3.5x-4x value upside. You don’t have to spend a ton for Doyle this week and I think he is one of the best value plays at TE on the board.
- Philadelphia Eagles PHI DST ($3,000)
- The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the New York Giants at home in Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are currently 6-point favorites and the Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 18.3 points. In the two games that the Eagles have played this season they had one dominating performance and didn’t do that great against a hot Chiefs team. The good news for the Eagles is that they get a great bounce-back game against the struggling Giants. So far this season the Giants have averaged 203 yards passing per game, only 48.5 rushing yards per game and right around 7.5 points per game. They have allowed 8 sacks and thrown for 2 INTs. They are also coming off a short week as they just played the Lions on Monday night. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can see we have a projection of 9.1 DKFP which would be good for right around 3.03x value. That is a great baseline projection but I think I may be even a bit more bullish on the Eagles DST this week. The Giants have not shown any ability to protect Eli which is why I think the Eagles could score in the 10-15 DKFP range this week. They are a relatively cheap DST this week and I love the upside they have.
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We are starting to get into the swing of things as the NFL season is rolling right now. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jack Doyle this week! Good luck Army!
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