Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 1 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Marcus Mariota who ended up with 18.84 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.8x value. For our running back free square we had Carlos Hyde who ended up with 13.70 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Larry Fitzgerald who ended up with 13.40 DKFP which was good enough 2.3x value. For our tight end free square we had Zack Ertz who ended up with 17.30 DKFP which was good enough for 4.9x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Houston Texans who ended up with 0 DKFP.
Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week one the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the New England Patriots (31.0), Oakland Raiders (28.5), and the Atlanta Falcons (28.3), The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows San Francisco Giants (14.0), New York Jets (15.0), and the Cleveland Browns (15.5). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares
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Free Squares
- Tom Brady QB NE ($7,900)
- You usually won’t see me put the highest priced QB in this slot but I think it is very hard to fade Brady this week. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will take on the New Orleans Saints this week on the road at the Superdome. Brady and the Pats have an implied run total sitting at right around 31.0 and they are 6.5-point favorites. Brady disappointed a lot of people in his debut by only getting 10.68 DKFP I think he will easily double that projection this week. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see the Saints are the 32nd worst team against QB’s, 30th worst team against WR1, the 30th worst team for WR2, and 31st worst team against TEs. Last year Brady averaged right around 36.0 Pass ATT/GM, 8.2 Pass YDS/ ATT, and 21.5 Fantasy PTS/GM. If we take a look at our Domination Station we have Brady Projected for right around 24.42 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.09x value. I think that is a pretty good baseline value and I think he can get us right in the 25-30 DKFP range. He is pricey this week as I have previously stated but I love both his upside and floor for a Sunday bounce back game for Brady.
- Ty Montgomery RB GB ($5,800)
- Ty Montgomery and the Green Bay Packers will take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes Benz Stadium. The Packers have an implied total sitting at right around 25.3 and are currently 3.0-point underdogs. In week one Ty Montgomery had a very solid game against a tough Seahawks defense. He had 19.30 DKFP which was good enough for 3.3x value. He had 19 carries 1 rushing TD and 4 receptions. That’s a good amount of touches for a guy who is only priced at $5,800. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the Falcons are the 31st worst team against running backs. He averaged right around 6.7 YDS/Touch and 9.4 Fantasy PTS/GM. Now if we go over to our Domination Station we see that we have a baseline projection of right around 15.74 DKFP which would be good for around 2.71x value. I think that is a pretty fair projection and he if can get a touchdown or two I can see him possibly getting us 15-20 DKFP. Montgomery is always a nice player to play in NFL DFS because he is so versatile. He has a great price, great matchup, and great upside this week. Lock him in at one of your RB positions on Draftkings this week.
- Adam Thielen MIN WR ($5,000)
- Adam Thielen and the Minnesota Vikings will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field this week. The Vikings have an implied total sitting at right around 19.8 and are currently 5.5-point underdogs. Looking back at Thielen’s week 1 performance we can see that he had a huge game notching 27 DKFP which was good enough for 5.8x value. He was targeted 10 times and caught 9 balls. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Pittsburgh is 17th against WR2’s. Thielen averaged 10.5 YDS/TGT, 16% of the total Team Targets. and 12.3 Fantasy PTS/GM. Looking at our Domination Station we have him projected for right around 13.5 DKFP which is right around 2.69 value. That is a fair projection and I think he gets somewhere in the 14-18 DKFP range. Thielen might not explode like he did last week but he gets a lot of targets and has a very favorable price this week. Lock him in one of our WR’s slots or the Flex this week.
- Coby Fleener NO TE ($3,100)
- Coby Fleener and the New Orleans Saints will take on the New England Patriots this week at the Superdome. The Saints have an implied total sitting at right around 24.5 and are currently 6.5-point underdogs. Fleener had a really solid week 1 in which he netted 16.40 DKFP which was good enough is 5.7x value. He saw 6 targets and caught 5 of them. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we see that the Patriots are the 17th worst team against TEs. Fleener averaged 7.7 YDS/TGT, 12% of the Total Team TGTs, 61.0% Catch Rate, 4 TDs, and right around 8.6 Fantasy PTS/GM. If we go and look at our Domination Station we can see that Fleener has the highest FPTS/$. He is projected to get right around 10 DKFP which would be good for right around 3.23x value. Personally, I think Fleener will be right around the 10-15 DKFP range. I think this game is going to be a shootout which means the Saints are going to need to throw the ball a ton. Look for Fleener to see right around 7-8 targets this week which should easily allow him to reach value and gives him solid upside potential.
- Oakland Raiders OAK DST ($3,500)
- The Oakland Raiders will take on the New York Jets this week at home at the Oakland Alameda Coliseum. The Jets have an implied total sitting at right 15.0 and they are currently 13.5-point favorites. In their first game of the season, the Raiders faced the Tennesee Titans in which they gave up 16 points. They only scored 2 DKFP and had 1 sack. The matchup becomes much easier as they face the lowly Jets this week. In week 1 the Jets scored 12 points, 176 net passing yards, 38 net yards rushing, 1 sack, 2 INTs. This is not an offense to be feared and one of those teams you can feel comfortable streaming defenses against all year long. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have the Raiders projected to score 10.1 DKFP which would be good for right around 2.89x value. I think the defense is one of the hardest positions to make a projection but I definitely think we get 10+ DKFP from the Raiders. Lock them in as your defense for the week.
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The first week is done and now we start to get in the swing of things for week 2 of the NFL Season. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Adam Thielen this week! Good luck Army!
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