Alvarez Free Squares - NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 1 Main Slate on DraftKings

Searching For the Free Square

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.

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Weekly Overview

Welcome to the first edition of the NFL Free Squares. Some of you may have been reading this article during MLB and NBA season and some of you may be newer readers. If you ever have any questions feel free to send me a message in our VIP Slack Chat or through Twitter. Looking ahead to week one the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Pittsburgh Steelers (27.8), Atlanta Falcons (27.5), and the Green Bay Packers (27.0). The teams with the lowest implied total are the New York Jets (16.0), Jacksonville Jaguars (17.0), and the Indianapolis Colts (18.8). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares

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Free Squares

Marcus Mariota QB TEN ($6,800)
- Marcus Mariota and the Tennesee Titans will take on the Oakland Raiders at home in Nissan Stadium. The Titans are currently 2.5 point underdogs. and have an implied sitting at right around 26.5-points as of now. After the offseason the Titans had there are no excuses for Mariota to not shine this season. The Titans added rookie wide receiver Corey Davis and two veteran receivers in Rishard Matthews and Erik Decker. They have a solid offensive line and have a great two-headed backfield in Derrick Henry and Demarco Murray. This Titans team is going to be an offensive juggernaut and Vegas seems to think the same giving the Titans one of the highest implied totals of the week. He gets a solid matchup this week vs. the Raiders who were one of the bottom teams last season when defending against the pass. I think realistically we can expect Mariota to throw right around 25-30 passes as this is going to be a hard fought game. Looking at our Domination Station we have him projected for 19.62 DKFP or right around 2.89x value. I am a little bit more bullish on him than our Domination Station and expect him to get us right around 20-25 DKFP. The one thing I love about Mariota and Fantasy QB’s, in general, is those who have the ability to rack up rushing touchdowns and rushing yards. Mariota didn’t run as much late into the season, but the ability is always there. Mariota is one of my top QB’s for the week and I don’t mind pairing him up with one of his receivers for GPP’s either.
Carlos Hyde RB SF ($4,600)
- Carlos Hyde and the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Carolina Panther at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have an implied total sitting at 21.5-points and they are currently 5-point underdogs. I am not going to lie I was a bit shocked at Hyde’s price on DraftKings seeing as he is $2,200 more on Fanduel this week. Kyle Shanahan is the new head coach in San Francisco this year which I think is good news for Hyde this year as Shanahan has had a quality fantasy running backs in his coordinating days. There is really no other running back on this roster who has proved themselves, so we should expect Hyde to get a bulk of the carries on Sunday. I think we will see Hyde will get near 15-20 carries and right around 3-4 receptions. If that is the recipe I find it hard for him to not crush value. Looking at our Domination Station we have Hyde projected for right around 13.8 DKFP which would be good for right around 3x value. The Panthers are a decent team when facing the run as they were ranked 14th last season. For me though Hyde is simply too cheap and I think it will be hard for him to not exceed value at his cheap salary. I love Hyde as one of my RB’s on Draftkings and it allows you to pair him with one of the higher priced guys.
Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR ($5,900)
- Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals will take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. The Cardinals are currently -2-point favorites and have an implied total sitting at 25-points. Fitzgerald comes into the season as once again the number one receiver for the Cardinals. He will take on a Lions team who according to our NFL Research Station was 22nd in the league vs. WR1’s. Fitz averaged right around 6.8 yards/catch, 24% of all the team’s targets, and right around 15.4 fantasy points per game. The nice thing about Fitzgerald is that he also gets frequented with some regularity in the red zone. Fitzgerald may not be the flashy player anymore but he is consistent gets a lot of catches and can rack up touchdowns which is always a recipe for a solid DFS wide receiver. I think we can realistically expect him to get right around 8-10 targets on Sunday. According to our Domination Station, we have him projected for 14.8 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.5x value. I like him to go for the 15-20 DKFP and make a nice return on value for us on Sunday.
Zack Ertz PHI TE ($3,500)
- In what might be one of the highest owned plays of the day Zack Ertz and the Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. The Eagles have an implied total sitting at right around 24.5 points. The Redskins were 25th in the league against TE’s last season. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that Ertz averaged 7.7 yards per target, 20% of team targets, and 13.1 fantasy points per game. Ertz is one of the surer handed tight-ends in the league and he can rack up a ton of targets and catches by being Carson Wentz’ safety blanket. I think we can expect him to get right around 8-11 targets on Sunday. That would go along way for us to reach value especially if he snags a touchdown of which he had 4 last season. Taking a look at the Domination Station we can see that Ertz is projected for 11.32 DKFP which would be good enough for 3.24x value. With the matchup and the implied total, I am hoping we can get right around 15 DKFP out of Ertz which would help me crush his value. Ertz will be popular Sunday but it’s going to be hard to pass on him.
Houston Texans HOU DST ($3,800)
- Defense is usually the position I focus on last with my lineup construction but if you have enough money I love the Texans defense on Sunday. The Houston Texans will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. The Texans are currently 5-point favorites and the Jaguars have the second lowest implied total of the slate sitting at right around 17.3-points. According to our NFL Research Station, the Texans ranked 3rd against QB’s, 11th against RB’s, 16th against WR1’s, 2nd against WR2, and 2nd against TE’s. I guess it looks like Blake Bortles is going to start for the Jaguars as of now which means the Texans should feast on sacks and turnovers on Sunday. The Jaguars offensive line is also a bit banged up which is going to be a good thing for the ferocious Texans D-LIne. The Jaguars allowed right around 2.1 sacks per game, .8 fumbles, and 1.0 INTs last season. According to our Domination Station, we have the Texans projected to score right around 9.5 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.5x value. I am more bullish on this team and if have the salary left over I am going to load up on Texans D as I think they have 3.5x upside on Friday.

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The first week on NFL is always interesting as we have been prepping for months. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Texans DST this week! Good luck Army!

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