I was on the right end of shut outs and wins last night, just the wrong lines. The Variance in NHL is part of what makes this so fun and frustrating at the same time.
We have the rest of the games 2s tonight, but DK has set up a weird set of slates. There is no all day slate featuring all 4 games. We have an early slate, featuring Ott/Bos and Tor/Wash. There is then the main slate featuring the Tor/Wash, Nash/Chi and Cal/Ana games, then lastly a late slate with the Nash/Chi and Cal/Ana games. I will note which slates players are after their stats. So let’s get on to today’s Junk Yard Dogs
The theory behind this is based on @choppodong ‘s Bottom Up line-up building videos, which if you haven’t watched you really should. You can find them here ( YouTube ). For more detailed versions, join dfsarmy.com‘s VIP program and gain full access. Use OPENINGDAY to unlock a no-catch 7-day pass that shows you cheatsheets, stats pages, the optimizer, and our slack forums with access to all our coaches focused on making you a better player.
I am not one of the coaches but am really just sharing my own research and trying and give back to this community which has helped me out. This is focused on cash games on DK. For the most part I am not speaking to what position they or their teams are in for today’s specific games, just pointing out players you might want to look at for your bottom up build. These guys provide value for their price. Remember, for value we are looking for players hitting about .6 points or more per $1000 in price. Due to always having small slates in the playoffs, I am looking at players with a max price of $5000 instead of my usual $4500. This isn’t to say there aren’t value players at higher cost, but the purpose of this blog is to help you find those cheaper plays that leave you lot of cap room to fit in those studs you want.
Numbers shown are their price and Avg points over the last 10 games, and all players listed have hit value in at least 6 of those 10 games. In some cases with Defense, there is another number in brackets. This number is their Avg points from shots and blocked shots alone. These players are hitting value on Avg even without being involved in scoring.
DEFENCE
McQuaid (Bos) 3 k 2.1 pts (early only)
Ceci ( Ott) 3.7 k 3 pts ( 2.2) (early only)
Chara (Bos) 4.8 k 3.9 pts (early only)
Polak (Tor) 3.1 k 2.6 pts (2) (early, main)
Orpik ( Wash) 3.2 k 2.2 pts ( early, main)
Gardiner (Tor) 4.1 k 2. 8 pts (early, main)
Stone (Cal) 3.2 k 2.3 pts (2.1) (main, late)
Van Reimsdyk (Chi) 3.2 k 2 pts (main, late)
Theadore (Ana) 3.5 k 2.5 pts ( main , late)
Lindholm ( Ana) 3.6k 2.9 pts ( main, late)
Seabrook ( Chi) 4.7 k 3.1pts ( main , late)
Ellis (Nash) 5 k 3.7 pts (main, late)
Nothing in particular stands out to me on the D men today. These guys are all putting up fairly consistent value, but also aren’t really doing anything spectacular. Ellis is maybe the most consistent, but also carries the highest price for low cost guys. Chara is the other doing well most consistently, but then is the next highest price. There cheap options for every slate, so this might be a day to just save money on D with a couple of cheap plays and spend up at forward
WINGERS
Nash (Bos) 3.3 k 3pts ( early only)
Williams ( Wash) 4.9 k 4 pts ( early , main)
Johansson ( Wash) 5 k 3.5 pts ( early, main)
Versteeg ( Cal) 3.8 k 3.8 pts ( Main, late)
As usual with short slates the pickings are slim up front. Again a reason to consider a couple of cheap value punt plays from Defense to save your cash for the forwards. Williams just seems to be at his best in the playoffs, and showed that with 2 goals in the opening game. Williams and Johansson correlate nicely on the same line, and then one is on each powerplay unit. This could be the cheaper way to get Capitals exposure rather than paying up for Ovi, and let you pay up elsewhere.
CENTRE.
Vermette (Ana) 3.3 k 2.2 pts ( main, late)
As the only centre on the list, it says to me that this is the position you can save your cash for by going with more value guys elsewhere.
In goal Vegas has Holtby as a huge -240 favorite, Crawford around a -170, Gibson around a -155, and Anderson as a slight edge -110, but I have seen it as low as -103. They really see that game as a coin flip. So we have the same dilemma as the first games for this teams. Holtby the big favorite, but up against one of the highest scoring teams in the league, Crawford who got no offensive support, and Gibson who was solid in a win, but should also be in a close game. I like Gibson’s shut out potential and might lean his way again, but that big -140 is hard to ignore.
If you are really tight on your bankroll, you might want to skip the Ott/Bos game altogether and just play the main slate to maximize your options for value plays and more options for high end play. As we have seen so far, there have been a lot of low scoring games, and some stellar goaltending performances to start. Of the four games only Tor/Wash has an over/under of 5.5 goals, and they didn’t reach that last game. All the others are 5 goal games. There has only been one game so far that has hit the over ( Mon 4 NYR 3 in OT), and most have been under the 5, with a few hitting it. Like I said in the first playoff blog, playoffs are generally tighter checking lower scoring games, and that’s what we are seeing so far, which is also resulting in lower scores for DFS.
Hope this read gives you some assistance in planning your lineups today. If you haven’t already join us in chat where the coaches ( and everyone else lol) are always ready to give you their 2 cents on your line up questions.
