Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
Last night was an average night for us. Kyle O’Quinn was the huge disappointment of the night and only managed to record 4x value. Anthony Davis had a good game and hit for 5.5x value. Greg Monroe had an okay game with 5.3x value. Felt okay about those guys as it was a pretty low scoring night across the board.
Tonight
I usually hate the smaller the slates on Thursday. Although my mood has changed on this slate the more I dive into it. I think there are going to be some interesting game theory decisions tonight. Let’s take a look at the free squares for the night:
Free Squares
- T J Warren SF/PF PHO ($5,500)
- Since returning from the All-Star break Warren has played 38, 39, and 33 minutes. His production in those games is 33.5 DKFP, 32.8 DKFP, and 28 DKFP. He is going to continue to see heavy minutes as the Suns have traded away PJ Tucker, and have essentially shut-down Tyson Chandler. On the season he has been averaging .78 DKFP/M, but that number has gone up recently with his increased role. The Suns come into the game tonight with ann implied total of (108) points and are (4.0)-point underdogs. i think we can safely assume Warren is going to get somewhere in the range of 32-36 minutes tonight. He draws one of the better matchups on the court tonight against the Hornets who give up 41.16 DKFP against small forwards. I have Warren projected at a 5.5x floor tonight with 6.5x upside. He also provides a bit of roster flexibility which can help a tremendous amount in smaller slates.
- Marvin Williams PF CHA ($4,900)
- I am going to go to the other side of the ball in this one and pick Marvin Williams. Marvin has made quite a few appearances on the free square picks, and it usually comes down to the number of minutes he plays. In his last 5 games alone albeit without a healthy Zeller he has averaged 38 minutes. He has hit value in 4 out of those 5 games as well. He’s not a guy who brings a ton of upside but is a steady value machine. If you plan on rostering Westbrook tonight you are going to need a lot of guys in the $5,000ish price range. He is a steady player who averages right around .80 DKFP/M. He has a good matchup tonight against the Suns who give up the 6th most DKFP against power forwards. The Hornets have a healthy implied total sitting at right around (112)-points. This will also be a pace-up game for the Hornets as the Suns have one of the highest pace numbers in the league at (102). Marvin will probably get around 33-35 minutes tonight. I see him getting us right around 5.5x – 6x value tonight.
- Draymond Green PF/C GSW ($8,000)
- Draymond Green comes into the game against the Bulls tonight as one of my favorite plays on the night. The Warriors come into the game with one of the highest implied totals on the board at (113)-points. Dray has had to take an expanded role for the Warriors in the absence of Kevin Durant. When KD is on the court Draymond’s averages 1.12 DKFP/M when KD is off the court that number rises to 1.20 DKFP/M along wth a 4% bump in usage. Even though the Bulls may look like they decent defensive number against big men you can just disregard those. The Bulls have a replaced a solid defender in Taj Gibson with Bobby Portis in the starting lineup. Draymond will have no problem attacking this Bulls frontcourt. He is going to see a steady dose of minutes tonight, and I project him to be somewhere in the 34-36 minutes range. He can do pretty much everything on the court which always give him a relatively safe floor. I like Draymond for around 5.5x floor tonight, and factoring in the matchup 7x+ upside.
Free Square of the Night
A fun 3-game slate tonight that is going to hinge on a few key decisions. This time of year is filled with tons of injury news and players resting. One of the best ways to stay in tuned is by joining our Premium DFS Slack with the discount information below. We had an okay last night, but let’s try and knock it out of the park tonight. My free square of the night is going to be T J Warren. Good luck tonight DFS Army!
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