Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
Looking back on last we did pretty well on our free squares. Nikola Jokic was our lowest valued player at 3.2x value. Our other two free squares fared much better. Patty Mills the free square of the night put together a monster performance of right around 8.3x value! The monster of the night was Ivica Zubac who put in a phenomenal night of 11.1x value!
Tonight
We get back on the grind tonight with a short 5-game Tuesday slate. The value doesn’t jump off the page like it did last night, but I have my eye locked in on 3 different guys. Let’s dive into those players:
Free Squares
- Jeremy Lin PG BKN ($5,700)
- After battling injury for most of the year Jeremy Lin has come back and is averaging right around 1.20 DKFP/M. That is a pretty solid number for a player who is priced at only $5,700. He will be taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder who are currently ranked 14th defensively against opposing point guards. The Nets come into the game with an implied total of (109)-points. This figures to be a pretty uptempo game as they Thunder have a pace number of right around 101. Lin has all the peripheral stats in his favor the only problem lies is will get enough minutes. I think we can project him right around the 25-minute mark which should been enough for us to receive value. He has been right around the mark his last 5-games, and has recorded over 5x+ value in all those games. Another thing I love about Lin is his extremely high usage rate which on the season comes in at about 26. Lin’s price has continued to go up, but I still think he has a nice floor along with some positive upside in tonight’s match-up.
- Myles Turner C IND ($5,700)
- If you look at Myles Turner’s recent game logs it is nothing to be desired. He has been struggling as of late to put it kindly. I like him tonight though and think he will get back on track in his match-up against the Knicks tonight. He comes into the game averaging right around 1.0 DKFP/M. He will be going up against the Knicks who have the 22nd worst defense against opposing centers. The Pacers come into the game with an implied total of right around 107-points. I think we can project to Turner to get right around 30-minutes tonight. That should give him ample amount of time to dominate a weak Knicks front-court. The Pacers need Turner to get back on track for this last part of the season leading up to the playoffs. He has showed solid potential this year and was a value hitting machine for a long period. With the matchup tonight I think we can expect a 5.5x floor with 6.5x-7x upside for Turner tonight.
- Klay Thompson SG GSW ($6,900)
- In what should be the highest scoring game of the night you are going to want to target some players in this match-up. Klay Thompson is my favorite player on the Warriors side of the ball. He comes into the game averaging .95 DKFP/M. He has a great matchup tonight against the Sixers who are one of the worst teams in the league in guarding opposing shooting guards. The Warriors have a huge implied total of right around 119-points. Just like the Warriors the Sixers like to play fast and have a pace number of right around 101. This all bodes well for a shooter of the caliber of Klay. He is coming of two solid performances in which he scored over 42+ DKFP. His usage numbers have been up as well due to the absence of Kevin Durant. I think he will see somewhere in the neighborhood of around 33-minutes tonight. He is also coming off some decent rest which means he should be ready to put up a big night. There is some blowout potential as the Warriors are almost 17-point favorites. I don’t play the blowout prediction game, and if I see guy in a good spot I’ll lock him in. His price is very affordable for the spot he is in along with the upside. I think we will see Klay have a 3rd consecutive night of 42+ DKFP.
Free Square of the Night
Smaller slate tonight but there are a lot of weather concerns out east right now. I think all the games will play, but stay in tune just to be sure. One of the ways you can stay in-tuned is by signing up for our Premium DFS Slack Chat with the discount info below. You get expert advice and up to the second injury news. Without further ado my free square of the night is going to be Klay Thompson! Good Luck tonight everyone!
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