Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
We ended up with two duds and a stud last night. The two duds ended up being Nikola Mirotic and Ivica Zubac who both hit for under 2.5x value. The bright spot of the night was the Free Square of the Night Frank Kaminsky who put in a solid performance of 7x value. One of the best ways to become a better DFS player is to analyze your picks from the night before. Sometimes your process is correct and the plays just don’t pan out.
Tonight
We are going to get back on the winning track tonight with our free square picks. We finally have a nice 11-game slate which will be filled with options for value. With so many players we need to take stand with our value and then build around that core. Here are the guys which I like tonight:
Free Square of the Night
- Kyle O’Quinn C NYK ($5,200)
- Kyle O’Quinn is probably going to be one of the highest owned players tonight. Noah and Hernangomez are out which means a ton of opportunity for O’Quinn tonight. He comes into the game tonight against the Magic averaging a solid 1.26 DKFP/M. The Knicks come into the game tonight with an implied total of (107)-points. O’Quinn has shown us throughout the year that he can reach value with very little minutes on the court. You now add in the fact that he is going to get somewhere in the range of 28-32 minutes he becomes an almost must play at his price tag of $5,200. He has a favorable matchup tonight against Orlando and I would not be surprised to see him put together a night with around 30-35 DKFP. That would be good enough for right around 5.5x-6x value. I am not going to overthink this play tonight especially in cash. We have a relatively safe floor with O’Quinn and legit potential for him to have 7x upside.
- Greg Monroe C MIL ($5,800)
- This could very well be a night where I may load up two centers in my lineups. Greg Monroe comes into the game tonight against Nuggets averaging 1.27 DKFP/M. Looking at the vegas totals this game is going to be a high-scoring fast-paced shootout. The Bucks come into the game tonight against the Nuggets with a high implied total of right around (113)-points. I love the matchup tonight for Monroe who will be going up against an exploitable Denver frontcourt that ranks 18th against centers. I think you can project Monroe to get right around 26-29 minutes tonight which would give him plenty of opportunities to reach value. He has played well for the most part lately going for over 6x+ value in 4 of his last 6 games. If the minutes are there we know what Monroe and his high usage rate of (23) can do. Look for him to have a floor of around 5.5x value with good upside potential.
- Anthony Davis PF/C NO ($10,400)
- I know it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Anthony Davis is a good NBA DFS play. If you are looking to make a stand on one of the studs tonight I think the free-play guy is Davis. We all the know gaudy statistics that surround Davis. He comes into the game tonight against the Pistons averaging 1.58 DKFP/M. The Pelicans are without Boogie tonight which means it’s going to be Davis’ time to bear the load again for the Pelicans. I love the matchup for Davis tonight against the Pistons as I think he can really attack their frontcourt tonight. Davis’s usage rate is through the roof at (30), and he has been putting up a ton of shots in his last few games. He’s going to get all the minutes he can handle tonight as the Pelicans are still trying to sneak in the playoffs in the west, I think he will get in the range of 35-38 minutes which will give place him right in line to have a big night. I think his floor tonight will be right around 55 DKFP, and we know he has the 70-80 DKFP upside. I firmly believe that Davis will be in the winning lineup tonight. If you are choosing a stud tonight Davis is my pick.
Free Square of the Night
An exciting slate tonight with a lot of options to choose from.This time of year is filled with tons of injury news and players resting. One of the best ways to stay in tuned is by joining our Premium DFS Slack with the discount information below. We are going to try and right the ship tonight. Let’s get back on track with some winning plays. My free square of the night is going to be Kyle O’Quinn. Good luck tonight DFS Army!
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