We have a smaller 5-game DFS NBA slate today, but there is still value to be found. First let me introduce myself as I am new to the DFS Army. My name is David and I go by 73pd2x on DraftKings where I primarily play. I’ve been playing DFS for over 5 years in pretty much every sport out there. My favorite DFS sports to play are NBA, MLB, and PGA. I primarily like to focus on DFS from an analytical point of view. I am a trust the numbers kind of guy instead of intuition type player. I tend to focus on GPP’s now as I think they have the best way to increase your bankroll along with providing entertainment value.
My top free square of the night last night was Sergio Rodriguez. Sergio got us 26.4 DK points, good enough for 6.6x value. Let us dig deeper in this slate and try to find another free square.
- Jameer Nelson PG/SG DEN ($3,100)
- Jameer Nelson clocked at 31.5 DKFP last night on 32 minutes of playing time. That was good enough for 10x value, and with the Nuggets being banged up I see him getting around 25-30 minutes again tonight. He’s averaging around .78 DKFP/M that would give us a baseline projection of around 23 points, good enough for 7.4x value. I think you have to increase that baseline projection because he is playing in a game with an implied team total of (118) points. He’s going to play a bit of shooting guard and point guard against one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league. I will not be surprised if Jameer gets us somewhere in that 8-10x value
range.
- Jameer Nelson clocked at 31.5 DKFP last night on 32 minutes of playing time. That was good enough for 10x value, and with the Nuggets being banged up I see him getting around 25-30 minutes again tonight. He’s averaging around .78 DKFP/M that would give us a baseline projection of around 23 points, good enough for 7.4x value. I think you have to increase that baseline projection because he is playing in a game with an implied team total of (118) points. He’s going to play a bit of shooting guard and point guard against one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league. I will not be surprised if Jameer gets us somewhere in that 8-10x value
- Kenneth Faried PF/C DEN ($4,400)
- Kenneth Faried has been an interesting case the year, and it is has been hard to get a read on his minutes. If he gets the start tonight he is a must play. Even if he doesn’t start I still think he can easily get us value. This is a guy who is averaging 1.1 DKFP/M. Starting or not I still think he will get around 25 minutes tonight in a high total, fast paced game. It has also been no secret this year that you can pick on the Lakers non-existent defensive frontcourt. I would follow the injury report closely in this one, but do not be too swayed off of Faried if he doesn’t start. I still think he could get us around 25 points which would be good enough for 6.25x
value. He also has tremendous upside at his price.
- Kenneth Faried has been an interesting case the year, and it is has been hard to get a read on his minutes. If he gets the start tonight he is a must play. Even if he doesn’t start I still think he can easily get us value. This is a guy who is averaging 1.1 DKFP/M. Starting or not I still think he will get around 25 minutes tonight in a high total, fast paced game. It has also been no secret this year that you can pick on the Lakers non-existent defensive frontcourt. I would follow the injury report closely in this one, but do not be too swayed off of Faried if he doesn’t start. I still think he could get us around 25 points which would be good enough for 6.25x
- Kyle Lowry PG TOR ($8,600)
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With a (119) point implied team total, and playing against a team with (104) pace you are going to want to target some Raptors. My favorite Raptor tonight is Kyle Lowry. He is playing against the 28th worst defense against point guards, and has a moderate price of $8,600. He averages around 1.17 DKFP/M. He has tremendous upside tonight in which I can see him getting us 45-50 points. The only caveat with any of the Raptors tonight is a potential blowout. Vegas has them listed as an 11.5 point favorite right now which could scare some people off. I’m not a player who worries about blowouts too much, but it is something to keep into consideration.
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These are the 3 guys that I consider my free squares tonight. If I had I to choose one guy tonight to be the ultimate free square it is going to be Jameer Nelson. He has the potential tonight to reach that 10x value again.
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