The best day of the year is finally here: NHL Opening Day.
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Let’s tackle the Elephant in the room.
Yes, FanDuel completely revamped their NHL product. Similar to what they did with their MLB offering this summer, Fanduel inflated the worth of goals (now worth 12 points) and assists (8 points). They also multiplied what goalies earn for saves (0.8), wins (12) and shutouts (8).
Another important change is the removal of +/- as a stat.
This is huge, because many GPP’s were won on Fanduel by players laddering up the scoreboard by picking up positive points on even strength goals by their line mates.
Now for the 2016-17 season, in order for a full line stack to pan out, you will need all three players contributing on the scoresheet in order to reach the top of the leaderboard.
Fanduel also added bonuses for shorthanded goals and assists (2 points each) and a 1.6 bonus for blocked shots. With these additions and changes, power play bonuses are the only thing that stayed the same at half a point.
This makes power play points less important than in years past, where a .5 bonus was huge on top of a goal worth only 3 points.
You will still want to target players who see power play time, but only because they see more scoring opportunities in the actual game, not because the bonus will be creating much of a difference.
If there is any good news to come out of the re-structuring, it is that Fanduel and Draftkings are now pretty similar with their scoring systems. So if you’ve had previous success on DK, you might be able to replicate it on FD.
For those of us who play on FD, we might be the new kids on the block, as other NHL DFS players are more seasoned to building rosters adept at shorthand points and blocked shots without +/-.
I plan to still play on FD, at least to start the season, so there might be some trial and error in the early going, but here is my early thoughts on how to build effective lineups this year:
I still believe that linestacks are the way to go, or at the very least you can play “couplets” on your teams. This would be two players who see a lot of minutes together, such as Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan in Calgary. These two have played most of their even strength and power play minutes together over the past 2 seasons, but their other linemate has rotated.
I expect Gaudreau and Monahan to both have huge success this year, and they’ll be riding on the same line all year to do it.
If you go the “couplets” route, it makes for some interesting combinations. You can now represent three teams upfront, and if you’ve pegged the goalscorers, you will be ahead of the linestacks picking up assists, as goals are now worth 4 points more than assists on FD.
As for the defensemen, I can’t believe I spent a couple hours yesterday googling NHL blocked shot stats, but that’s where we are with FD now. This was a stat that I’ve never paid much attention to.
But to be honest, I was actually more surprised than I thought I’d be with the results.
Mark Giordano, Roman Josi, and Erik Karlsson are three of the top 11 shot blockers from the 2015-16 season.
Why is this important? Because they are also offensively gifted puck-rushing defensemen who see significant power play time.
They instantly became heavy targets for me this season. With these three you have defensemen who will score while also plucking some blocked shot points. In the new FD, these should be the big 3 targets on the back end.
Of course we will still want to target defensemen who can score, but if we can find some that can do both, why not take advantage?
And since you’re now curious, the number 1 shot blocking defenseman in 15-16 was Francois Beauchemin in Colorado. This is interesting as well, because he sees PP2 time, and sometimes runs the PP1 when Tyson Barrie is out of the lineup.
Another interesting blocked shot fact: Beauchemin’s defensive partner Erik Johnson was 5th in blocks last season.
Finally, for the goalies.
Their stats have also been inflated, so it’s essential to have a winning goalie on your team. Last season on FD, you might have been able to get away with a goalie that sees a lot of shots, keeps the score low, but doesn’t earn the win.
But now with a win being worth 12 points, I don’t think you’ll be able to pull that off this season.
Goalies are a day-by-day decision. You have to make sure you’ve got the starter, and make sure he’s in a good position for a win.
But be careful, especially early in the year, as some of these teams that were awful last year (Toronto and Buffalo) are sporting some solid upgrades and might be in line to grab you some surprise wins in October.
In fact, I’m picking Toronto tonight, and new starting goalie Frederik Andersen to go with it.
So with all of that being said, let’s break down tonight’s small opening slate, and get ready for the puck to drop!
7 p.m. Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Remember how much fun it was to watch the Arizona Coyotes last year? All of that young talent flying around the ice. Pulling some upsets. Staying in the playoff picture until after the All-Star Break?
This Maple Leafs team has the potential to make them look slow.
They are bursting with young talent. And the Leafs front office did the right thing in letting them all play together this year.
Will they make the playoffs? No. But they will be fun to watch. And they will shoot the puck, score some goals, and upset some teams this along the way. They will be a contrarian dream for GPP’s when you get them on the right night. And sometimes they’ll even be the optimal play for cash games.
As far as tonight? Everybody is buzzing about Auston Matthews making his debut for Toronto. He’s a definite GPP option playing alongside fellow youngsters William Nylander and Zach Hyman. Matthews and Nylander also see time together on the first power play unit, so they can be a cheap couplet as discussed earlier.
I don’t need to sell you on Matthews. We all watched the World Cup. He’s the real deal.
But the rookie I’m most excited for in Toronto is Mitch Marner. He’s playing on the second line with veterans James vanRiemsdyk and Tyler Bozak.
JVR and Bozak are proven scoring threats, and Marner will compliment them completely.
Marner had 116 points in just 57 games last year for the London Knights in the OHL. He had 126 points in 63 games the year before. Those are video game numbers. The former No. 4 overall pick will also be low-owned tonight since I expect most DFS players to be on the Auston Matthews train. This could be a GPP dream if his line performs the way that they’re capable of.
With all of this skill on the Leafs, we can’t forget that there’s a lot of it on the other side of the puck in this game as well.
Ottawa’s top-6 forwards are looking as deep as any in the league.
The first line of Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone will be a dangerous line, especially in transition, and this game figures to be a fast pace with a lot of action on the rush.
Also, the Senator’s Bobby Ryan is always a threat to score when he’s on the ice, and getting Derick Brassard is a definite upgrade down the middle for the second line that also boasts the underrated Zack Smith.
It’s tough to pick from these two lines, especially so early in the season with no data to back it up. But if I had to move on one for tonight, I’d go with Turris, Hoffman, and Stone, simply because I expect them to be shooting the puck more often since they see the PP1 minutes as well.
On defense, Erik Karlsson for Ottawa is a staple in all formats, especially because of the new blocked shot bonus.
8 p.m. St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks
This game has the easiest decision of the night, as Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin, and Patrick Kane are a solid play in all formats until they prove otherwise.
They were the best line in the league last year when they played together, and Kane took home both the scoring title and a Hart Trophy to prove it.
Pick them in your cash game lineups and don’t think twice about it.
Also for Chicago, there are some solid options on the blue line as Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook see the PP1 minutes with Kane, Panarin and Anisimov.
I lean towards Keith as the better option as he finds himself at the top of the umbrella more often, so the power play points will be coming from his stick.
I want to believe in St. Louis this year, because they have been a force for a few years now, but I have the feeling they will be taking a step back this year.
After trading TJ Oshie out of town 2 summers ago, longtime captain David Backes leaving via free agency, and Jaden Schwartz starting the year on the shelf (does this guy ever play?), the Blue are seriously lacking the depth that made them so tough to play against.
The top line of Paul Stastny, Alex Steen, and Robby Fabbri is a decent enough line. But i don’t expect them to set the world on fire. I think they’re a fade for tonight.
The line in St. Louis that I’d most likely use in GPP’s would be the second line of Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko, and David Perron.
Tarasenko is a complete player who can turn into a one-man highlight real at any time, but this line remains a GPP option until they prove that they can be consistent this season.
I do, however, expect big things out of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk this year. I was looking at his stats and wondering why it seemed like he had a down year in 15-16 with 44 points, which is the same total he had in 14-15.
The difference is he played only 56 games in 14-15, and 72 in 15-16.
A couple of factors contributed to his drop in scoring pace last year. He was rotating off of the PP1 unit for a while with Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo coming in. But Shattenkirk looks to be back on the top unit this year and i expect his scoring to spike as well.
10 p.m. Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers
I’ve already touched on my expectations for Gaudreau and Monahan this year. But i can’t stress enough how great of a matchup this will be for them tonight.
This game will feature goals on both sides. So you really can’t go wrong as there will be cash plays on both teams’ top lines.
Gaudreau and Monahan will be the play for the Flames, as they will be all year, but it’s important to keep in mind that they did struggle on the road for stretches last year.
I think tonight’s game suits their style way too well to fade them, but try to remember that they are always a much better play at home in the Saddledome.
Michael Ferland is seeing time on the wing with Gaudreau and Monahan, so he instantly becomes a solid play as well.
For Edmonton, Connor McDavid and Jordan Eberle found chemistry playing together last year. They are playing together again while starting the year at home. They also picked up Milan Lucic on the wing. This line is a play in all formats. They will come out flying, and Lucic might prove to be the grit that these guys needed.
Lucic is great along the wall as he wins most board battles. He should be able to get the puck out to the open ice and his highly-skilled line mates on the rush. He also scores the dirty goals as he makes his home in the high-traffic areas in front of the net.
Watch this line score plenty this year. They see the PP1 minutes together, and since we no longer have to worry about them pulling negative points from +/-, the sky is the limit.
On the blue line, Calgary’s Mark Giordano is still a play in all formats. He sees the PP1 minutes and apparently picks up blocked shots. He’s a go in all formats tonight, and might be most effective in a full stack with Gaudreau and Monahan.
I don’t like the goalies in this game, as this figures to be the high-scoring game of the night. There are much better options in Chicago, Toronto and San Jose.
10:30 p.m. Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks
The world’s best power play is back in action tonight, as San Jose’s Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns will be back together and slinging the puck around the offensive zone faster than your eyes can keep up.
It’s probably a good idea to dip into this stack for both cash and GPP tonight.
For starters, Thornton and Pavelski also see even strength minutes together with Tomas Hertl. They’re a go in all formats.
The second line will be Couture with Joonas Donskoi and newcomer Mikkel Boedker. This line should get serious GPP consideration, as it will be interesting to see how they start the season playing together. Boedker is one of the best open-ice players in the league, and Donskoi and Couture are great on the forecheck and around the net.
I hate to do this to you, but I also like the Sharks third line of Chrirs Tierney, Marleau, and Joel Ward. I’m giving them some GPP consideration as well. It’s too early in the year to be able to tell who will be the hot line on a given night, but Marleau and Ward clicked last year and scored some big time goals. They will do the same this year at some point, and you also get PP1 minutes out of Marleau.
As for Brent Burns? He is always an option for both cash and GPP. It seems like he plays every minute for the Sharks, and he scores goals like he’s a top-6 forward. Get him in your lineup.
As for the Kings, Tanner Pearson’s suspension hurts their chemistry more than anything else. He figures to play on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown when he gets back. For tonight, Devin Setoguchi will take his spot, and he’s not even available on FD. This has me leaning towards fade.
If you want to roll with a GPP option for the Kings, I’d look at the second line with Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, and Teddy Purcell.
Carter shoots the puck from all angles and still has potential for big nights. He also sees the PP1 minutes with Toffoli, so they could make for a low-owned “couplet” tonight along with defenseman Drew Doughty.
Best of luck tonight. Let’s have a good start to the season! See you in SlackChat!
