Welcome back to Week 6 of the Daily Fantasy Football season. I can’t believe how quickly the season is steamrolling along. We’re just a couple of weeks out from the halfway point. Week 5 was another successful one for me and hopefully many of you. I was all over the Steelers this week with plenty of exposure to Ben, Bell, Brown and Sammy Coates heretofore known as Martavis Jr. As the weeks roll along and our sample size grows, the advantage in DFS shifts to the well-researched players. Looking at DvP, analyzing game flows and game scripts, and understanding what certain teams do in particular situations are all factors that give us that slight edge on the field.
King of the Beach Qualifier
Last week I mentioned here in the column how I had tied for 1st place in a DraftKings King of The Beach Qualifier and would have to participate in a tie-breaker contest this week with the other 11 players that tied for 1st place. Since this was just a 12 team league I wanted to keep my lineup fairly chalky. This was a prime time only contest so just the Packers-Giants and Panthers-Bucs games were in play. My original plan was to go all in on the Carolina offense. That was when I thought Cam would play. When word hit that Cam was out I pivoted to Eli Manning as my QB. Green Bay’s pass defense had been awful for the first four weeks so this seemed like a good spot to take a chance on Eli to OBJ. My main differentiator in the contest was going with Rainey over Lacy. I knew that Lacy would be over-owned because of his name recognition. The Giants D has been really solid at defending the run and Lacy is a disappointment machine. Packers run D has been top notch to start the season. Number one overall. With that stat I figured the Giants would not have success pounding the rock up the middle with Darkwa. It seemed like a game script that would favor Rainey as the pass catching scat back for the Giants. Rainey was only used by 2 people in the contest. Rainey outscored Lacy for a much cheaper salary. Eli wound up looking terrible and putting up a paltry 11 points. Since this was a Draftkings contest the late swap was in play. In our slack forums we were able to check out some of the lineups, particularly from players we thought had a shot to win the contest, and try to figure out who they had rostered based on how much salary remained and what positions were unfilled. For the most part we were able to figure out the actual lineups for everyone within striking distance of a win in the tourney. Without getting too specific, I knew that one player had an Anderson-Olsen-Kelvin stack going. I knew that if both guys went off, chances were that Derek Anderson puts up a big number rendering the Kelvin-Olsen stack unusable for me. I had to make a choice. Looking at the rest of the lineups we figured out that most of them were on Olsen and that Kelvin was very low owned. Derek Anderson had shown a nice chemistry with Olsen the week before so people naturally flocked to him. Since I was going for the win I wound up pivoting to Kelvin. He was just 33% owned and most of the other players that used him were already out of it. Here are the final results:
Obviously using Kelvin over Olsen didn’t work. Olsen went for 170+ yards and 30 Draftkings points. Still looking at the process and the ownership % I believe the swap to Kelvin was the most prudent decision. If Kelvin goes off I win the contest. It was a risk worth taking. There was an actual path to victory based on how the contest played out. Going in to the Monday night game, if I had chosen to go with Olsen for the chalk factor at TE and instead pivoted to Cameron Artis-Payne in the flex, it would have been enough to take the win. The best part of the whole thing was getting the DFS Army team involved in the process. It was a fun game to watch with everyone following the contest and rooting me on. While all of this was going on, another one of our VIP’s, traindarealest, had a sweat of his own going. He was in 8th place going in to the Monday Night game with Greg Olsen yet to play. A great showing from Olsen was enough to propel him into first place in the Draftkings $30K Thursday Safety!
Big congrats to TDubbs on taking down a $3000 cash in a large GPP. This screen shot and lineup were added to our DFS Army Wall of Fame and T-Dubbs won a DFS Army T-Shirt for representing the DFS Army with a big cash. We asked TDubbs about his lineup and here’s what he had to say:
You can read Tdubbs complete breakdown of his lineup HERE on our Wall of Fame
Beat The Geek Win Some Swag
Last week I ran a “Beat The Geek Win Some DFS Army Swag” contest here in the column. Here were the results:
Congrats to Jluketina on beating The Geek and taking down 1st place. In addition to the cash, Jluketina gets an awesome DFS Army T-Shirt! I wound up in 3rd place in this contest. Not quite good enough to save me the work of sending out that T-Shirt.
Another week means more DFS Army swag to give away. Here is the link to this week’s “Beat the Geek” contest. Remember that in addition to the regular prize pool I’m throwing in a DFS Army T-Shirt to the 1st place winner!
This is an 80 Player $2 Entry Contest hosted by Fantasy Draft. Top 25% Cash and 1st Place Gets $32, in addition to the shirt.
DFS ARMY MEMBERSHIP
Last week we added Boom Fantasy to our month of free membership offer. The buzz in our slack forums has been very positive. I encourage you to check them out. Boom Fantasy is mainly a mobile app based site. Here’s how it works:
Boom Fantasy – Register for Boom Fantasy via our link and get a FREE month of DFS Army VIP membership and our two DFS Strategy eBooks. Boom Fantasy will also match your deposit ($20 Minimum) and give you an additional $10 voucher you can use immediately. Boom Fantasy is a new take on DFS. They ask a series of fantasy questions with points assigned to each answer so that the less likely scenarios are worth more points. It’s a really cool way to train your mind to think in terms of probabilities. They have two types of contests. One is more traditional and entered for the entire slate. The other is an in-game experience where they toss questions at you during the prime time games. Who will score the next TD… things like that. Makes watching the games even more fun!
We are still running some other new membership promotions which you can read about here!
WEEK 6 VEGAS LINES
Thursday Night
Denver -3 At San Diego 45
The slate starts in San Diego this week where the Broncos are road favorites in a game Vegas sees as being close. This line is interesting because one of my favorite things to do is target the offenses of slight home dogs. The Vegas arrows are pointing to the Chargers offense in this game, but the problem is one of my other rules of thumb- avoid anyone facing the Broncos defense.
Let’s start with the Broncos, who face a Chargers team that is reeling defensively. They are vulnerable to both the run and pass equally at this point having lost their all-pro CB Jason Verrett last week. I’m expecting Trevor Siemian to return for this game and he’s only had eyes for Emmanuel Sanders to start the season; he saw 13 targets in each of the past two games with Siemian at the helm. Demaryius Thomas has been seeing a remarkably consistent eight targets per game in this offense as well. Both of the pass catchers for the Broncos are usable in this spot. At RB, C.J. Anderson has been a bit of a disappointment over the past few games. Last week he only saw 11 targets at home facing an Atlanta team that isn’t particularly known for stopping the run. Backup RB Devontae Booker got more work in the passing game last week with six targets and four receptions. This is a situation to monitor but, for now, Anderson remains the top dog and this is a potential get right spot for him.
As far as the Chargers offense goes, I’m sticking to my guns and fading offenses against the Broncos. The Chargers still have no clear #1 WR and I can’t see using Melvin Gordon in this spot in all but the most contrarian of GPP lineups.
Elite Plays: Trevor Semian, Emanuel Sanders, DT
Sunday Games
At New England -8.5 Cincinnati 47
The Bengals travel to Foxboro as heavy underdogs in a game with a relatively high total. Last week we got a taste of angry Brady and you can just that no one is going to stop him this season; I fear no defense when Brady is in the game. Cincy is coming off an ass-whooping at the hands of the Cowboys and Vegas is predicting much of the same here.
The Patriots face an all-around solid Bengals defense but I highly doubt they will slow down Brady & Co. This is a pick your poison game for the Patriots offense and the usual suspects of Edelman and Gronkowski are weekly elite plays. I expect Gronk to get a little extra love after Brady gifted those 3 TDs to Bennett last week. The high spread also brings Patriots defense into play.
The best case scenario for fantasy scoring in this game would be if the Bengals could somehow keep up with the Patriots. Or, at least, they could keep the game close enough to where the Patriots need to keep attacking offensively. Normally, the Patriots are crafty at scheming to take out their opponent’s top weapon; that would be AJ Green this week. I would only consider using Green in a game specific stack. As an example – Brady-Edelman-Gronk-Green. Tyler ImHurt may actually play this week, but I’m loathing to use a player in their first start of the season coming off a major injury.
Elite Plays: Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman
At NY Giants -3 Baltimore 44.5
The Giants are slight home favorites as they take on the Ravens in a game Vegas sees as somewhat low scoring. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season and that’s reflected in the low game total. The Ravens have been a top run-stuffing unit and solid against the pass. The Giants defense is similar in that they stuff the run even better than the pass.
As I watched the Giants in prime time, it was clear that Manning is just a bit off right now. He was missing his receivers by fairly large margins and the run game has looked stagnant, which isn’t helping him either. Now they face a tough Ravens defense, where the low total and seemingly tough defensive scenario make this a total fade, outside of the low ownership GPP flyer on a guy like Odell Beckham, Jr. that could go off at any time.
The outlook isn’t much better for the Ravens offense; you can’t run on the Giants and they are pretty boring at RB with a committee situation led by Terrance West. He looked good last week with 11 carries for 95 yards and some targets in the passing game. The volume is still really low with just 11 carries in a game that had a positive game script. Steve Smith, Sr. got banged up for the Ravens last week, and at this time, I’m not sure of his status. It’s interesting to note that when Smith came out last week, Breshad Perriman saw five targets and Mike Wallace saw 11. The Giants stop the run, so West should have a tough time. Most of the scoring for the Ravens will be either via Justin Tucker’s leg or Joe Flacco’s arm. If SSS is out or limited, some of those 11 targets per game will have to shift to someone else. The player I actually think benefits the most in this particular game is Dennis Pitta, who is their biggest red zone threat. He’s been seeing massive target numbers week after week and the Giants haven’t done well against TEs historically.
Elite Plays: Dennis Pitta
Carolina -3 At New Orleans 53
Wow, this is the obvious chalk game of the week! The 1-4 Panthers travel to New Orleans to take on their division rivals as three-point favorites. The total hasn’t been set yet because they want confirmation on whether or not Cam Newton will be playing.
For the Panthers, Cam, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and possibly Jonathan Stewart (if he comes back next week) are all up for consideration. Assuming Vegas is right, and this is a close and high scoring game, there will be plenty of opportunities to go around. Olsen has been extremely consistent and this just feels like a spot where Kelvin is going to have a big game.
The Saints offense is tougher to predict on a week-to-week basis. The total target numbers for Brandin Cooks, averaging eight per game, this far in the season with multiple dud performances doesn’t justify his sky-high DFS salary. If you need to use Cooks this week it should only be in a game stack type lineup. Willie Snead is another player to keep an eye on; he wasn’t fully healthy two weeks ago in that San Diego game, but he’s been more consistent than Cooks to start the season. If Snead is healthy enough to go then I really like him in this spot. The third WR for the Saints is Michael Thomas; he saw increased targets the past few weeks with Snead hobbled. All three of the Saints WRs are risky because of the way Brees spreads things around so evenly. I really like TE Coby Fleener in this spot; buzz out of Saints camp over the bye week was on how he was getting more comfortable within the offense. Fleener has been up and down and I think he will go low-owned in a great spot this weekend.
Elite Plays: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Coby Fleener. Drew Brees
Pittsburgh -7.5 At Miami 48
The Steelers head to Miami as 7.5-point road favorites in a game with one of the highest totals of the week.
Nothing is going right for the Fins and they are just an absolute disaster at the moment. They just cut a bunch of O-Linemen, Ryan Tannehill just threw two interceptions and no TDs in their last home game, but one slightly encouraging thing for Miami is that they were actually pretty good to start the season. They’ve regressed the past couple of weeks, but with all of that said, this is the NFL and they are playing the Steelers. It’s going to be a high-scoring game and Miami is at home. Tannehill, DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry are all worth looks in GPP tournaments.
The only thing working against the Steelers here is the fact that they are on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is hot as can be right now and Miami’s defense just got lit up by a previously slumping Marcus Mariota. They couldn’t even stop a Cleveland rookie QB a couple of weeks ago, so Ben should be just fine. We all know about Antonio Brown; his ceiling is sky high every week of the season, just like his salary. Le’Veon Bell is the ultimate cash play on a weekly basis, as he is remarkably consistent. Last week we saw a nice breakout game for Sammie Coates, who had 11 Targets and two TDs. He also dropped three or four additional passes, some of which would have been for easy TDs, but Coates still brings a high ceiling to the table in this explosive offense.
Elite Plays: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Sammie Coates, Le’Veon Bell
At Chicago -2 Jacksonville 47
The resurgent Bears are home favorites this week as they take on the Jags in a game with one of the higher totals of the week. This one should go under the radar but there is certainly plenty of potential. Both of these teams have been doing a lot of scoring and neither team is scary defensively.
The big story for the Bears last week were the great performances from Jordan Howard and Cameron Meredith. Howard got a full workload and wound up with over 100 yards rushing and 28 DraftKings points; he is in a good spot at home facing an unimpressive Jags run defense. Last week I had Howard as my highest owned RB, and now his salary shot up this week to the point where he will be more level with studs like LeSean McCoy and Christine Michael. Even more surprising was the breakout of WR Cameron Meredith, who had 12 Targets, nine receptions, 130 yards and a TD. He pulled that off even with Royal getting nine targets and Alshon Jeffery getting his usual 7. At this point, with Alshon’s salary almost double that of the other WR’s and getting fewer targets, he should be considered a GPP contrarian play only. This WR corps is going to be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis with no clear top dog. Zach Miller continues to produce at TE as well; he saw nine targets and seven receptions last week. Hoyer for cheap $$ makes him interesting as a QB punt in a home game with a high total.
The Jags are coming off their bye week feeling good off a win. Their offense has been a mixed bag to start the season- the running game has been awful and the Blake Bortles/Allen Robinson connection hasn’t quite clicked as of yet. TE Julius Thomas is set to return from injury this week. I’ll only use these players in a game specific stack.
Elite Plays: Jordan Howard, Bryan Hoyer, Zach Miller
At Buffalo -7.5 San Francisco 44
The 49ers travel to Buffalo as heavy underdogs in a low total game, where the line favors a stack of Buffalo defense and LeSean McCoy. The only concern is that for some reason this Bills team seems to feed the TDs to anyone but McCoy. This season Mike Gillislee has vultured two already, which is something to keep in mind. The Buffalo WR corps are completely undistinguished and should be avoided. TE Charles Clay makes for a potential TE punt; he sees about five to seven targets per game and it wouldn’t shock me if he hits pay dirt this weekend.
Colin Kaepernick will take over at QB for the 49ers in this game and I think this is an interesting spot for him and the 49ers offense. Most of us are rooting for him to fail because of the whole sitting during the National Anthem thing, which was really annoying. I watch football to get away from real world bullshit. I’m not interested in idiot players making political statements. So obviously, I hope he gets crushed this weekend. That said, I would imagine that most fans feel the same way and will rightfully be looking to play Bills D here. Here’s the thing- when I think about potential game flows, the most likely outcome, based on the line, is a dominant performance by the Bills. If Kaepernick somehow doesn’t suck, I actually think that a stack of Kaepernick to Torrey Smith could be interesting. Smith has been a disaster to start the season largely due to the noodle-armed Gabbert’s inability to throw deep with accuracy, but Kaepernick is a different sort of player, as his douchiness level is matched by his arm strength. I could see him connecting with Smith on a deep bomb or two in this one. Carlos Hyde is another player to keep an eye on; the Bills have been great against the run to start the season and this is a road game for Hyde so temper expectations here.
Elite Plays: LeSean McCoy, Bills Defense
At Detroit -3.5 Los Angeles 43.5
The Lions are home favorites taking on the Rams in a game with a low total. The Rams have been a solid overall defense to start the season ranking in the top 10 in most categories. The Lions are ranked last overall defensively, as their secondary has been torched on a weekly basis.
The Lions offense is another one that is tricky to predict on a weekly basis. Marvin Jones, Jr. is the primary WR but his target numbers have been on the decline since the first two weeks. If I’m using Stafford in a lineup, I’m stacking him with MJJ. Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin are not fantasy relevant anymore. Theo Riddick ha a nice total last week and he remains locked into a high-floor pass-catching role in the Lions offense. It’s noteworthy that Zach Zenner saw seven attempts and a couple of targets in the more traditional big back role.
I’m never all that excited about the Rams offense, particularly when they are on the road. Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin are the only two fantasy relevant players on this team. I could see an argument for rostering Tavon or even Kenny Britt going up against a secondary that is worst in the league as a GPP Hail Mary play.
Elite Plays: None
At Tennessee -7 Cleveland 45.5
The Titans are heavy home favorites taking on a Browns team with a QB situation in limbo.
Last week, Mariota broke out of what was a season-long slump by putting up a massive 30 fantasy points on the back of his three passing TDs, alongside 60 rushing yards and a rushing another TD in. Hidden within those numbers, is the fact that Mariota only threw for 163 yards. This Titan’s team lacks a #1 WR and their run-heavy offensive game plan limits the WRs to the point where they are not fantasy relevant. Last week DeMarco Murray saw 27 rushing attempts and six targets in the passing game. Murray is the player to target in this game and no one else comes close. Delanie Walker is also interesting here but his salary has risen ($5500 on DraftKings) to the point where the value isn’t there anymore.
I’m not sure what to make of the Browns in this spot. As of this writing, Josh McCown is practicing but not likely to play this week. Cody Kessler is also hurt but more likely to play. Some 4th string QB was elevated from the practice squad as well. If he plays I’ll be looking for some Titans defense exposure for sure, as they have actually been pretty solid to start the season. They are sitting at #7 overall according to FootballOutsiders.com and have been well above average in all categories. I’m fading the Browns offense completely.
Elite Plays: DeMarco Murray, Titans Defense
Philadelphia -2 At Washington 45
In a divisional battle, the Eagles take on the Redskins as road favorites in a game with a middling total. This is a divisional matchup so it’s generally best to temper expectations from a fantasy perspective. The Eagles have been fantastic defensively to start the season, as they are currently ranked #2 overall. The Redskins have been below average defensively across the board.
The Eagles offense is too tricky to prognosticate. Jordan Matthews has regressed since his 14 targets in Week 1; he has seen just three and four targets respectively over the Eagles past two games and that’s way too low of a floor for a player with a stud level salary ($6700 on DraftKings). Nelson Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham and Darren Sproles have each been seeing around four targets per game as well for the Eagles. The point here is that they are spreading the ball around way too much for comfort. It’s going to be a crapshoot trying to figure out which of these guys will go off on any given week. Zach Ertz is another player that gets targeted around four to five times per game; I expect him to have big weeks every now and again, but this spot isn’t bad for him at all. Finally, we have Ryan Matthews. I was encouraged to see that the Eagles went away from Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner for the most part and gave Matthews the majority workload last week. Unfortunately, that was just 11 carries and five targets in the passing game, but those are actually the most encouraging thing to see. As long as Matthews stays involved in the passing game he should be able to produce acceptable week to week numbers. He lacks the ceiling of some of the more involved RB’s but the floor isn’t terrible.
The Redskins offense is just as difficult to pin down. Kirk Cousins has been just OK to start the season; his salary on DraftKings has been steadily declining to the point where he is currently at a puntish $5600. For perspective, in a Week 1 matchup with the Steelers, Cousins was priced at $7400 on DraftKings. This is not a good spot for the Redskins RBs at all and that’s fine because the combo of Matt Jones and Chris Thompson have not impressed. At WR, Desean Jackson remains a volatile low floor GPP only type player. For some reason, the DFS sites keep pricing him way above where he should be. Jae Crowder and Pierre Garcon round out what is an unappealing WR corps from a fantasy perspective. The only player in consideration this week on the Redskins offense is Jordan Reed. Unfortunately for Reed, the best thing the Eagles have done defensively this season is stop the TE position.
Elite Plays: None
At Oakland -1 Kansas City 47
The Chiefs head to Oakland as one-point road dogs in a game Vegas thinks will be close and high scoring. Here’s what we know:
- The Raiders are at the bottom of the league defensively
- The Chiefs are a top 10 defense
- The Raiders get a boost being at home in the Black Hole
Let’s start with the Raiders. Their running game is a bit of a mess right now, and last week with Lats Murray on the shelf, the touches and targets were split evenly between DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. No thanks. In the passing game, David Carr has been hot to start the season; he’s put up a remarkably consistent 25 fantasy points in four out of the first five weeks this season. Last week Amari Cooper finally stepped up with a two TD performance for the Raiders. He’s averaged between over nine targets per game to start the season and the arrow is pointing upward. Michael Crabtree has been the more productive player of the two to start the season so you never really know which one will have the better game. They both carry very similar salaries.
On paper, this is a great spot for the Chiefs offense. Being on the road, I’m thinking they will need to attack on offense to keep up with what has been an explosive Raiders offense. The primary weapons for the Chiefs in the passing game are Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, but neither of them has been great to start the season. Maclin has topped out at 17 DraftKings points and Kelce hasn’t been a whole lot better. At RB I expect the Chiefs to continue to work Jamal Charles back into the mix, but I’d predict a 50/50 split with Ware this week. That’s not the type of situation I look for in DFS so I’ll probably wait and see on Charles.
Elite Plays: David Carr, Amari Cooper, Mike Crabtree
At Seattle -6.5 Atlanta 46
The red-hot Atlanta Falcons travel to Seattle as 6.5-point underdogs in a game Vegas expects to have a total on the high side for the week. Last week the Falcons went to Denver and ran all over them; both Coleman and Freeman surpassed 20 fantasy points. Denver is a better defensive team than Seattle has been this season and I expect the Falcons to be able to move the ball and score in this game. The big difference here is the Seattle offense; they are better than Denver and there is a good chance that this game becomes a shootout.
This is about as good of a spot as we will see all season for the Seattle offense. The Falcons aren’t great defensively and they should be able to keep the game close with their potent offense. Atlanta is particularly bad vs opposing TEs; part of the reason is because they have one elite defensive player, Desmond Trufant, that occasionally will shadow opposing #1 WRs. The assumption, for now, is that Trufant will cover Doug Baldwin and that should funnel even more targets to Jimmy Graham. I love Graham in this spot but I’m not going to shy too far away from Baldwin either. Baldwin plays in the slot and he is the clear lead WR for the Seahawks. Finally, we have Christine Michael. The spread on this game and the high total screams Seattle RB. Michael is the lead dog in this backfield and with no threats for touches he brings a high floor to the table.
Atlanta is facing a Seattle defense that is statistically the best overall to start the season; they are solid against the run and pass. Normally, it makes no sense to use players from teams on the road facing top defenses. The only place I’m considering using players like Julio Jones or Tevin Coleman is in a game specific stack, so I may make a lineup with Wilson-Baldwin-Graham/Coleman-Julio or something like that.
Elite Plays: Russel Wilson, Jimmy Graham, Christine Michael, Doug Baldwin
At Green Bay -4.5 Dallas 47
The Cowboys travel to Green Bay as 4.5-point road dogs in a game Vegas expects will be relatively high-scoring. The Packers have been exceptional at stopping the run this season and Dallas has been pretty good there as well, but both teams are susceptible to the pass.
This is a rough spot for the Cowboys; they are a run-based team that controls the clock alongside solid defense. That is not going to work as well against a Packers defense that allows under two yards per carry to opposing backs. If the Cowboys are going to do much scoring here it will probably come via the pass; I’m not ready to bank on that. I could see a guy like Cole Beasley getting some extra looks in a situation where Dallas should struggle to make first downs via the run.
The Packers are at home facing a Dallas defense that has been vulnerable to the pass. Aaron Rodgers was asked about that and he said “fine by me!” The Packers will also be forced to move the ball via the pass and Jordy Nelson should be the prime beneficiary. Eddie Lacy hurt his ankle last week I wouldn’t touch him if he started but if he sits, James Starks makes for an interesting salary saver in a week where it’s going to be critical to find salary relief.
Elite Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson
Sunday Night
At Houston -3 Indianapolis 46
This divisional game pits the Texans against the Colts in a game with a middling total. The Texans are slight home favorites here. Houston has been above average defensively to start the season. The Colts, on the other hand, are one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Colts, in particular, have been torched by enemy RBs this season. Last week, Howard torched them to the tune of almost eight yards per carry on average. Lamar Miller has had a bit of a rough start to the season but some of that can be attributed to some very tough defensive matchups. The encouraging thing is that he has no threat for touches. Occasional passing down target vulture, Jon Grimes, is out this week. This is an ideal get right spot for Miller in a plus matchup at home. The Colts recently got elite CB Vontae Davis back from injury. He’s been playing his way back into shape. We saw the Davis effect last week when the Bears avoided his coverage on Jeffrey which funneled targets to WR3 Cameron Maybin. Assuming Davis is on Hopkins this week I would expect big things out of Will Fuller.
The Colts are somewhat predictable offensively. T.Y. Hilton has yet to see under 10 targets in a game to start the season. Phillip Dorsett remains an afterthought. This is not a great matchup for Frank Gore at all so its Hilton or bust.
Elite Plays: Lamar Miller, Will Fuller, T.Y. Hilton
Monday Night Football
At Arizona -7.5 NY Jets 47
This game has inspired me to go heavy on the Thursday through Monday slate. My beloved Jets head out to Arizona like pigs to the slaughter. The Jets are heavy underdogs in a game with a high total. Here’s the synopsis – Arizona has a great all around defense. The Jets can stop the run but they get torched via the pass.
For Arizona, Carson Palmer will be back and at full strength for this game. I expect him to get on track this week against the Jets league worst pass defense. The Cardinals basically roll with three #1 type WRs; Fitzgerald plays the slot and he is the most consistent WR on their roster and also carries a sky-high salary ($7700 on DraftKings). Watching the Jets, they are the most susceptible to the deep ball. That brings us to “The Sheriff” John Brown, who has started the season off slow coming off a lingering pre-season concussion. Then in Week 3 he exploded with 11 targets at Buffalo then followed that up with a 16 target 10 reception performance against the Rams in Week 4. Last week with Palmer on the shelf, The Sheriff was limited to four targets and one reception in what was the David Johnson show at San Francisco. Now Palmer is back and I expect Brown to deliver. At a paltry $4500 DraftKings salary this is the type of player we need this week in order to afford all of those stud RBs in great spots. David Johnson is also in play here. Even though the Jets run Defense is solid I expect the Cardinals Defense to completely shut the Jets down. DJ should beast against a tired Jets defense late in the game.
Elite Plays: Arizona Defense, John Brown, David Johnson, Carson Palmer
Conclusion
That’s it for the Week 6 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army premium members, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column. That should be live on Friday morning. If you are reading this via the DFS Army Android app please be kind and leave a review. Click here to grab the app from the google play store or to leave a nice review if you have it already!
Good luck this week!
DFS Army Week 6 Content
Geek’s Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Breakdown
Week 6 $2 DFS Army Swag League on FantasyDraft
DFS Army Early Week Primer – Defenses
DFS Army Early Week 6 Primer – Tight Ends
DFS Army Week 6 Kickers Corner
Week 6 VIP Podcast Available in Slack Chat
