Boy I feel like a kid at Christmas, and if you are here reading this I bet you do too. It is FINALLY football season, and that means getting all of the knowledge you need to win the first week and every week this season. For many people that leads to the biggest question of, “how to pick a kicker?”
The Argument of Luck
I hear a lot of talk in slack where people play only on Draftkings because they hate having the kicker. Just the other day I had a conversation where the person I was talking with is convinced picking a kicker is complete luck. I am not saying that there is no luck in putting that right kicker in the right lineup, but how is that any different than any other player? If you can pick from Hopkins, Julio Jones, OBJ, and Antonio Brown, which one do you pick? We use the information given to us to select the best option.
First we might look at price, but for this example we are going to pretend they are all within 300 of each other. So if price is the same how do you pick the right stud WR? You look for the best match up to produce you the most points. Kickers are the exact same. Even though you still need the luck of having your kicker used, how is that any different from any other spot, other than the QB who always has the ball. Now we need to show you how you find that best match ups to pick from.
I will also be giving you the picks I like each week. There will be a few who I believe are cash safe (could score 10-15 points), cash safe with GPP upside (could see scores from 13-20 points) and GPP only kickers (score anywhere from 1-20). The rest are kickers you will not find me using. If the kicker is not on the list but you really like him, hit me up in slack and let’s talk about it.
Selecting a Kicker
So what do you look for when picking a kicker to give yourself the best chance to score big, well it is broken down into 3 criteria. The first thing you want with a kicker is a team who is likely to use their kicker. These are teams who tend to be ahead or in close games because teams who are ahead or close are more likely to put their kicker in when they are in range. Teams who are behind will more often keep their teams on the field and try on 4th down, or punt if they are just at the edge of range.
The second thing you should be looking for is a kicker with good accuracy and a good distance. There are kickers who can nail the ball within the 30-yard line, but if you can get a kicker to push out further and get those 50 yard kicks you will really rack up the points. Just checking on the kickers stats for the season will let you see how they are doing. The one thing I want to make sure is I not only check a kickers overall accuracy, but also their recent form. I have found that kickers can slump, so knowing when someone is slumping will get you off them when you need to be off them.
The third and last thing that you will look for when picking a kicker is weather. Kickers do not do well when there is heavy rain or heavy winds blowing against or across their kicking path. This is an easy one to figure out, but always want to make sure that you check that weather forecast before kickoff.
You will notice one of the things that I did not point out and that is the price. The reason for that is simple. You should only look at the price after you have picked out the best candidates. Then you can pick the ones that fit your price. The difference between the top dollar kicker and bottom dollar kickers is so small, but the points they can put up is vastly different. Why skimp 500 on a kicker who could score you 15 more points? Luckily there are often kickers under 4800 who do have a chance to produce decent scores.
The Quick Kicker Picker
- Pick kickers on teams who are favored to win or be in close high scoring games.
- Pick kickers who have the ability to kick with high accuracy from long ranges.
- Pick kickers who are in domes or where weather is not an issue.
- Worry about price last, focus on ability to score points first.
Kicker Picks (there is a short def write up under list)
Def Picks
Philadelphia Eagles – It is always a good idea to target teams who are able to make turnovers, score def TDs, and are facing a team who should be turnover prone. Cleveland has RG3 who has proven over his carrier to give up not only interceptions, but also fumbles. Eagles are also a great team for producing turnovers from most teams. I like the double threat here.
Seattle Seahawks – There is probably no safer bet for a defense to produce than Seattle. They have some of the most talented players in the NFL on their Def, and they are playing an offense who did not show anything during preseason. The biggest weakness to Seattle is the TE, which is not something we see from Mia. Solid and safe team with cash worthiness.
Los Angeles Rams – Who on SF will beat out anyone from the LAR DEF? Their star RB which I would say would be their greatest shot at pulling off some points and yards might be on the bench. The rams were a top DEF last year, and SF has so many question marks. The only thing that worries me is the turnover points. I think we get a solid game from the rams, but might not get a big score due to lack of turnovers.
Texans – I really like Texans with a great chance for sacks, it looks like Watt will be healthy enough to play week 1, Clowney was a beast in preseason, and Chicago has a week O-line, and a QB who lacks mobility. This is all great things for Houston, since more sacks means more points, more risk of fumbles, and even better quick throws that are not well executed and increase the chance for picks. Their price on most sites is middle of the road, which makes them easy to use.
So here you have my notes and thoughts on a few of the DEF that you can choose from. There are more, and ffootballgeek has them listed in Vegas lines and player picks. I am not saying that other DEF are not playable, I simply wanted to point out my favorites and the ones I am looking to use most.
