Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football strategy as we analyze all of the week 2 games from a Vegas Lines perspective. One thing I’ve always found interesting is how different people get excited about different things. Some people are really into technology. Even as I type this, there are people queued up waiting days in advance for the release of a new IPhone. That’s not for me. Some people are really into politics. Remember when Chris Matthews got that tingle in his legs from listening to an Obama speech? Not my thing either. I get excited about football. More specifically I get a tingle in my legs when I see that perfect Vegas line. Spoiler alert, there’s a game this week that gave me that tingle.
Week 1 Takeaways
There are two points I wanted to touch on from last week’s slate before moving forward. One of the GPP strategies I like to talk about here is stacking a single game. We always discuss things like chalk/pivots and looking for low-ownership situations. One of the most formulaic methods is stacking up on the games we know are going to be high scoring. I’m going to take the Saints vs Raiders game from this past Sunday as an example. Here was my blurb on that game here in the column last week:
Oakland (24.75) +1.5 @ New Orleans (26.25) 51
Chalk alert! This line screams close game leading to a high-scoring shootout. Anytime the Saints terrible defense is on the field, good things happen from a fantasy perspective. I expect this to be one of the heaviest ownership games of the week.
The Saints passing game features Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead as the primary pass catchers. I’m not buying into the hype surrounding the Saints rookie WR. Another Saint that has been hyped is Coby Fleener. People rightly point out that TE’s really excel in the Saints Offense. Thats true but I think it will take Coby a few games to get the hang of the offense. Fleener is a bit of a bonehead. It was different with the Colts because Fleener had been with Andrew Luck through their collegiate careers and there was a comfort zone on the surface. Even then, he was known to be a mistake prone player. We all remember the first game of the 2015 season when Tyler Eifert torched the Raiders defense for two TD’s and a monster fantasy score. There has been a narrative for a while now to use the TE position against the Raiders and I do think people will target Fleener in this spot. The buzz I’ve heard out of Saints camp regarding him has not been great and some would even say he’s been slow to pick up their system. I’m fading him Week 1. On the ground, Mark Ingram is in a spectacular spot since he is utilized as both a runner and receiver in the Saints attack. His team is favored at home, thus making him a top play.
The situation for the Raiders offense looks really good on paper. The Saints score a ton on offense and their defense sucks across the board. This game has the makings of a back and forth shootout. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Derek Carr and Lats Murray all make for quality fantasy starts.
Elite Plays: Brees, Cooks, Ingram, Murray, Cooper
Secondary Plays: Carr, Crabtree, Snead
Hopefully, you read this and stayed away from Fleener last week. When I scanned the leaderboards of “Sunday only GPP’s” I noticed that a great deal of them had stacked up this particular game, using some combination of Cooks, Cooper, Snead, Crabtree and one of the two QBs. There was enough salary flexibility in Week 1 with all the mispriced players to actually pull off this stack in any number of ways. This type of stack generally winds up being low owned and frequently winning GPPs. If you look back at my training camp write-up on GPP strategy, this type of stacking was definitely a strategy that I highly recommended as a “GPP only” type of play. Obviously, you have to be on the right players and whatnot but stacking up a single game and being right about it is one of the best potential GPP strategies you can pursue.
Another take away from the week one slate for me was more cash game based. Here is an excerpt from my write up on the Jets v Bengals game from last week:
This type of game is interesting from a fantasy perspective. On the one hand, the Jets have Darelle Revis, a shutdown corner, and the initial thought is to simply avoid Green in this spot. Why bother paying up for a stud WR when he is facing a top level defender? Well, when we dive deeper into this game and how it may play out, with the Jets run defense being legitimately a stonewall, chances are that the Bengals will need to do their scoring through the air. With no Eifert and a rookie in the #2 WR spot, it seems likely that Green will be peppered with targets early and often. Green makes for a sneaky play in all formats with what should be extremely low ownership.
Sneaky Elite Play – A.J. Green
Obviously, the sneaky elite play worked last week as Green was very low owned and wound up getting 39 points on DraftKings. In looking back at some of the factors and logic that went into this recommendation, we discussed this game in greater depth on the VIP podcast. I mentioned that it was a simple play with Eifert on the shelf and the Jets stifling run defense, chances are that if the Bengals are scoring it’s going to be through the air to Green. When I was actually constructing lineups, I wound up using Green as a GPP/Hybrid play, but not in my cash lineups. Instead, I used Allen Robinson at a similar salary in my cash games. Looking back, I’m really trying to figure out if that was the right move. Was A.J. Green a cash viable play last week? If you were simply looking at the game total then probably not. If you add in the factor that Green was basically the only scoring option for the Bengals last week, then yes, he made sense as a fantastic cash play. Circling back to the Robinson vs. Green discussion, Bortles has Julius Thomas, Hurns and A-Rob as viable TD scoring weapons. There was really no way of knowing who the TDs were going to. I’m sure A-Rob will have big games all season, but with all of those viable pass catchers, the results may be less consistent than a player with very little competition for opportunities. Going forward in the game writeups, and in my personal lineup construction, I’m going to continue to try and focus on these types of situations and hopefully get a better grasp on the truly cash viable plays in a given slate.
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Beat The Geek
Last week we ran a DFS Army Fantasy Draft Freeroll that included some DFS Army swag and a signed Drew Brees Jersey to the winner. I wanted to say congrats to ACASE22 for narrowly edging out Ortipa to take down 1st place. ACASE22 used a late night hammer combo of Vance McDonald and 49ers Defense to secure the win. Enjoy the Drew Brees jersey man. I’m not sure how you decided on using the 49ers D last week but it worked out well!
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BEAT THE GEEK WEEK 2 DFS ARMY SWAG CONTEST
Week 2 Vegas Lines
At Buffalo (21.5) -2 NY Jets (19.5) 41
The Thursday Night game features a very weak 41-point total. Going back to something I mentioned last week, the Jets defense is an elite run-stopping unit and teams need to attack them via the pass. Sammy Watkins, coming off a turd of a game at Baltimore, has torched the Jets over the past few seasons. If the latest reports are true, and Watkins is having major foot issues, I am not trusting him until further notice.
Elite Plays: Thursday Fade
ET At Detroit -5.5 Tennessee 47
The Titans travel to Motor City as underdogs in a game with a relatively high total. Both of these squads had fairly high rankings versus the run in 2015 and both were soft against the pass.
Last week. we saw Mariotta and his crew lean on the running game. I was heavily invested in Delanie Walker which didn’t work out roo well. I’m going back to the well this week against a Lions defense that absolutely horrendous defending opposing TEs last season. The Titans rookie WR, Tajae Sharpe, operated as the clear top dog last week. He could be usable in a salary-saving punt type of situation, but that’s about it. The Titans figure to be playing from behind this week which could mean some passing game work for Demarco Murray.
Last week we saw the Lions pepper Marvin Jones Jr with targets; he didn’t catch that many passes but the opportunities were there. The Titans were soft against opposing WRs last season and they were one of the worst teams at defending the TE position. I’m not ready to trust a player like Eric Ebron in my cash lineups, but I could see sprinkling him into a GPP lineup or two. Both Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick did damage for the Lions at the RB position, but there doesn’t appear to be a clear favorite in the Lions backfield.
Elite Plays: Delanie Walker
Secondary Plays: MJJ, Sharpe, Stafford
At Houston -2 Kansas City 43.5
In this matchup, we have the Chiefs heading to Houston in a game Vegas sees as close and low scoring. Both of these teams bring a reputation for solid defense to the table.
When a game has a total this low, the only thing we really want to look for is value plays. Obviously, Spencer Ware went bananas for the Chiefs last week while they were making their epic comeback. Assuming his salary doesn’t explode to the upside and Charles isn’t ready by Week 2, he could make an acceptable low-salary RB play in this game. Outside of that, there are elite players on both teams: DeAnre Hopkins, Lamar Miller, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce are more GPP low ownership type pivots.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Maclin, Hopkins, Ware
At New England -6.5 Miami 41.5
The Dolphins head to Beantown as heavy underdogs in a game that Vegas sees as a low-scoring affair and there isn’t much to like here. Miami is projected to score just under 16 points. In DFS we are looking for situations where we can get explosive performances from the players we use.
This game is a pass.
Elite Plays: Patriots Defense
Secondary: Blount
Baltimore -6 At Cleveland 43.5
Last week the RG3 experiment ended predictably for the Browns. Now Josh McCown takes over in a game in which Vegas expects the Browns to lose by six points at home.
The total for Cleveland is an anemic 18.5 points, that’s not a lot of fantasy goodness at all. Last week, the Ravens defense completely stifled the Bills. This is one of those situations where you wonder if the Ravens defense is really good or did the Bills offense just kind of suck last week? The only viable cash or hybrid play in this game is Gary Barndige, but he did put up a donut last week. He’s super cheap on the various DFS sites and we know he has a great history with McCown.
The Ravens offense has way too many subpar options at the moment, so screw this situation.
Elite Play : Ravens Defense
Secondary: Gary Barndige, Mike Wallace, Joe Flacco
At Pittsburgh -3.5 Cincinnati 47.5
In a division clash, the Bengals head to Pittsburgh as slight underdogs in what should be a close and high-scoring game. My only concern in this game is the fact that these two teams are division rivals. I remember last season when these two teams faced off it was more of a defensive battle. Last season in the two games in which these teams faced off, Antonio Brown scored 16 and 21 Draftkings points respectively- not exactly value for the most expensive player on the slate. The best thing about DeAngelo Williams is that salaries were released before he crushed the Redskins with a 36-point performance. As long as Le’Veon Bell is sidelined, Williams will be an elite play. To be clear, Brown remains an elite play every week of the season, particularly when the Bengals have tons of injuries at the CB spots.
A.J. Green put up 28 and 18 points respectively when these two teams met last season- not bad at all. With the lack of alternative scorers on the Bengals, Green remains a weekly elite play. I don’t trust Jeremy Hill or Gio Bernard as anything more then GPP punts.
Elite Plays: A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Deangelo Williams, Ben
Secondary Play: Dalton, Eli Rogers (if Wheaton is still out)
At Washington -3 Dallas 44.5
Dak Prescott and his crew face off against the Redskins in Washington for a divisional rivalry game. Last week reminded me of last season with the Cowboys- they are playing a slow, ball-control type offense that doesn’t score much that is run-heavy and designed to control the clock. I don’t remember teams putting up quality fantasy totals when going up against them. It was mostly because they didn’t need to.
The only viable player on the Cowboys offense is Ezekiel Elliott and I’m really not sure it will be worth paying up for the elite level pricing the DFS sites have mistakenly put on him.
For the Redskins, after watching last week’s game I have very little confidence in Matt Jones as anything more than a punt play at RB. Jordan Reed is as good as it gets at TE outside of Gronk; with that said, Dallas was top-three at defending the TE position last season. DeSean Jackson is probably more of a GPP play then someone I’d want to use in cash this week.
Elite Plays: Jordan Reed
Secondary Plays: D-Jax
At NY Giants -5 New Orleans 52.5
Remember earlier when I mentioned that occasionally it makes sense to stack up on one particular game? The line is over 50 points. Check. High scoring offenses that play subpar defense? Check. Saints just lost their top CB, Devin Breaux? Check. I actually get excited when I see this type of line for a game. What more could you really ask for? The big question is who will be the big beneficiaries?
The Saints players went bananas last week. Willie Snead, Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, even Michael Thomas- all crushed their expected totals. Ingram was disappointing with a yeoman-like performance, but he’ll get his eventually. Is this the week? I don’t see why not. Load up on Cooks, Snead as well. Use Thomas as a punt in some GPP lineups.
On the Giants side, it starts with OBJ, but last week, Beckham disappointed big time. We learned that Cruz seems healthy and got himself a TD to show for it. Sterling Shepard was a big part of the offense as well. In a potential shootout game like this, Vegas expects the Giants to be behind at some point. When the chips are down they are going to go to their star WR. With Breaux on the sidelines, OBJ should eat all day long. Shepherd and Rashad Jennings are both playable as well. Last week the Raiders produced quality fantasy scores from their WR1 and WR2 when facing the Saints Defense. I’m not going as far as recommending Vereen or Cruz, but I’m sure some people will use them.
For the Saints, it’s all hands on deck with Brees, Ingram, Cooks, and Snead all in play. Unless I hear a blurb out of New Orleans about making an effort to get Fleener involved, I’m going to wait for a few games before trusting him in one of my lineups.
Elite Plays: Manning, OBJ, Jennings, Brees, Cooks, Snead, Ingram
Secondary Plays: Shepherd, Fleenor
At Carolina -14 San Francisco 45
The 49ers looked pretty good trouncing the awful Rams last week. Can they pull off another miracle this week? Hell no. Vegas slapped a 15.5 point total on the 49ers this week and I’m skeptical that they get there. Conversely, Vegas put a huge 29.5 point total on the Panthers. Thats about as high as it gets. The uptempo Chip Kelly style should provide plenty of extra opportunities for the Panthers offense this week. Seeing a line like that may tempt you to load up on the Panthers offense. Our Vegas Lines rules of thumb tell a different tale. Players tend to underperform expectations when spreads go over 10 points. This line says one thing. Roll out Panthers Defense in this game (and their Kicker if you play on Fanduel). Ignore the rest.
Elite Plays: Panthers Defense
9/18 4:05 ET At Arizona -6 Tampa Bay 50
Looking at this game we see a line very similar to the Giants game, as far as having the home team favored by just under a TD. The big difference here is that Arizona is a premier defense, and the Giants are not. That adds an element of risk to this one, particularly for the Tampa offense.
Tampa is in a tricky spot here. They looked amazing in Week 1 as they manhandled the Falcons on the road. Now they travel to a much tougher location to take on an Arizona team that is probably angry after last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Patriots. The Arizona defense features Patrick Peterson, an elite CB, on one side of the field. On the other side, they got nothing. They also feature a safety, The Honey Badger, that should be able to lock down the center of the field and the TE position. This leaves with WR2 Vincent Jackson on the outside. Jackson saw seven targets last week against the Falcons, the same number that Evans saw. I don’t often recommend using V-Jax as a punt, but when I do it’s usually because Evans is facing an elite CB.
Last week the Patriots game planned to take away the deep ball from the Cardinals, and Belichick is so great at taking away his opponent’s strength. The takeaway? The Cardinals strength is the deep ball! With burners, Floyd and Brown in check, slot WR Fitzgerald did a ton of damage and we can see that he is still one of the best WRs in the league. Even at age 33, he doesn’t appear to have lost many steps. Floyd and Fitzgerald are the two primary pass catchers to target in the Cardinals Offense. I’m sure I’ll be leaning Floyd again this week, simply because he’s cheaper and I think his floor and ceiling are similar if not higher than Fitzgerald. That plus everyone will be on Fitzy after the big game last week. David Johnson remains an every-week stud.
Elite Plays: Palmer, David Johnson, Mike Floyd, Fitzy
Secondary: Vincent Jackson, Smokey Brown
Seattle -6 At Los Angeles Off
The Rams were so bad last week that even as I type this, the Vegas oddsmakers haven’t figured out how low of a number to give them. If Seattle was at home for this game I’d like their defense as an all-in play. As it sits, they are still one of the top plays. It’s in our nature to overreact to good games and bad games. A team plays badly one week and we instinctively think they suck. Another team plays well and we think they are the best team ever. The truth generally lies somewhere in the middle. That said, the Rams really looked like shit this week. I said it in the preseason in my season long column, outside of Gurley, there are literally no playmakers or touchdown scorers on the Rams offense. No one, and I’m counting the $40Million gadget man Austin in the no one category. If the Rams defense doesn’t shut down their opponent and present great field position to their offense, they are screwed. Assuming Russel Wilson plays, I highly doubt the Rams will shut down the Seattle offense this week. If the Rams couldn’t score or move the football on the 49ers swiss cheese defense, they certainly won’t move it on the Seahawks.
Elite Plays: Seattle Defense
At Denver -6 Indianapolis 45
The Colts head up to Mile High Stadium as six-point underdogs in what Vegas believes will be a relatively low-scoring affair. Denver sports the best all-around defense in the league.
This is a good spot for Denver, as they are coming off a Thursday game with extra days to rest to prepare for the Colts. Denver is like a better version of the Rams in that they don’t generate much offense via the pass. Instead, they rely on defense and a stellar running game. The difference is Denver actually has quality pass catchers that can threaten the opposition downfield if necessary. That plus Denver’s D is just better. C.J. Anderson worked in a bell cow role last week accumulating 20 carries and 4 receptions. His competition for touches, Booker, got four carries and fumbled. I’d say C.J. is the workhorse going forward. I continue not to trust any of the Denver pass catchers in my DFS lineups, but Semian is a serviceable QB and that’s about it.
There aren’t many scenarios where it would be wise to use players on the road in Denver.That’s the best all-around defense in the league people!
Elite Plays: C.J. Anderson, Denver Defense
At Oakland -5 Atlanta 48
This is another interesting game and the Falcons head west to take on an Oakland offense coming off a huge offensive output game against the Saints. Both of these teams can score and neither plays great defense.
This is another great spot for the Oakland offense as a whole. Atlanta was the worst team in the league last season against opposing RBs. Latavius Murray saw a nice workload in Week 1 until the Raiders went into catch-up mode and abandoned the run. It was encouraging to see him getting work in the passing game and around the goal line. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper are both solid options again assuming this game remains close and high scoring. Both saw equal target numbers in Week 1.
Atlanta is a trickier offense to figure out. Last week they split targets evenly between Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Julio is questionable right now with an ankle issue but that shouldn’t stop him from suiting up. At RB, Atlanta split the touches evenly between DeVonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Sucks for anyone that ignored my advice in my season long notes column and drafted Freeman in the second round. It also sucks for us DFS’ers in that we know these two will vulture from one another. It’s T-Cole or passes for me as I can’t see paying stud salary for Devonta anytime soon.
Elite Plays: Carr, Cooper, Murray, Sanu, Crabtree, Julio Jones
Secondary: Matt Ryan
At San Diego -3 Jacksonville 48
I was a bit surprised to see the line on this game. I figured the Chargers would be home dogs or at least a pick em considering they lost their top play-maker in Keenan Allen last week. Biases aside Vegas sees a close and high scoring game. Exactly what we are looking for in DFS. According to my defense chart both of these teams can’t stop anyone or anything- that’s a good thing.
The Jags spread the ball around last week. TE Julius Thomas hit paydirt twice in the game. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson were involved as well. Robinson was a disappointment from a fantasy perspective but he did get plenty of opportunities. DFS’ers may be hesitant to roster him this week but they shouldn’t be; A-Rob was targeted 15 times in Week 1 and I expect him to be more efficient this week. Off of the weak performance, his salary came down a bit on some of the sites. Hurns did his WR2 thang hauling in four of his five targets for 75 yards and that type of line is what we should expect from Hurns. It will take a TD for him to exceed expected value on a week-to-week basis. The injury to Thomas is something to keep an eye on. JT caught all 5 of his targets last week, and luckily for those of us that rostered him, one of those went for a TD. The most interesting situation this week is at RB. As of this writing, Chris Ivory is still in the hospital with an unknown illness and reports are that he will be out of there in a day or two. Still, you don’t normally come out of a multiple-day stay in an emergency room ready to play football. If Ivory sits, Yeldon will once again be in play as a high volume RB play in an ideal matchup.
The Chargers lost their top WR in Keenan Allen last week. The big question is who will step up? I personally believe the biggest beneficiaries will be Travis Benjamin, Danny Woodhead, and Antonio Gates. T-Benj is the only WR with any credentials on the Chargers roster. Dontrelle Inman will get an increased role in the offense as well, but Inman was in this same position last season when Allen went down and he didn’t impress. Tony Gates is really old and kind of slow at this point, but TE’s are like a fine wine that seem to get better with age. Rivers loves him and I expect the Chargers to plan for this game with Gates in mind.
Elite Plays: Allen Robinson, Yeldon (If Ivory is out) T-Benj, Gates, Bortles, Rivers
Secondary: Hurns, Inman, Woodhead
Green Bay -2.5 At Minnesota 45
The Packers head to Minnesota as slight road favorites in a game with a middling Vegas total. Last week the Vikings dominated the Titans defensively. The Titans are not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch but anytime a defense dominates on the road we have to take notice. Aaron Rodgers looked good facing off against the tissue soft Jaguars Defense last week but this is a different story.
For the Vikings, we probably won’t know who the QB will be until game time. Shaun Hill is a conservative game manager type of QB. A career backup, his primary objective is to avoid making mistakes. Sam Bradford can sling it but we don’t know how much of the offense he has absorbed in his short time with the team. The whole thing feels like a situation to avoid. I’m sure the Vikings will make an effort to get Adrian Peterson more involved this week, but the Packers run defense was a top unit in 2015 and I think some of the other stud RBs are in better spots this week.
On the flip side, the Packers are on the road facing a division foe that may potentially be a top defensive unit this season. My Spidey Sense is tingling here and it’s telling me to avoid this game completely.
Monday Night Football Line
At Chicago -3 Philadelphia 43
In the Monday Night Hammer game, Carson Wentz and the Eagles head to the Windy City to dodge bullets on their way to slight underdog status in a game Vegas sees as close and low scoring. I’m a little surprised at the line on this game as both teams sport below average defenses. Chicago was particularly bad at stopping opposing #1 WRs and TEs in 2015. Philly was mediocre across the board.
Last week, Carson Wentz looked pretty good carving up the swiss cheese Browns defense. Wentz peppered Jordan Matthews with 14 targets in a game that was never in doubt. Matthews hauled in seven of those targets and wound up with a solid fantasy performance. Jordan’s big brother, Ryan, saw 22 carries on the day operating as the clear top dog at RB. He wasn’t targeted in the passing game at all, which is concerning, but let’s see what happens this time around. TE Zack Ertz got hurt last week and will be out for a while. Old reliable Brent Celek steps in his place and makes for an interesting minimum salary punt on Draftkings this week.
The Bears are coming off a close loss to the Texans, who are a much tougher team defensively than the Eagles and I expect the Bears players to do better this week. One thing we know about Cutler is that he likes to lean on his WR1 and he’ll force it in there if necessary, so that bodes well for Alshon Jeffrey. Another interesting player here is Jeremy Langford who operated as the workhorse last week staying in on passing situations as well as goal line situations. I really like him this week as he faces the Eagles bottom of the barrel run defense in a game that is likely to remain close throughout.
Elite Plays: Jordan Matthews, Ryan Mathews, Alshon Jeffrey, Jeremy Langford
Punt: Brent Celek
That’s it for the Week 2 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army premium members, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column. If you are reading this via the DFS Army Android APP please be kind and leave a review. I’m still looking at the review from that jerk that complained about not having enough Daily Fantasy Football content on August 10th. Click here to grab the app from the google play store or to leave a nice review if you have it already!
Let’s kick some ass this week. I’ll see you all in the lobby!
