It’s commonly known that the most successful DFS pros often come from the world of poker. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to figure out why that is and some people will tell you that it has to do with similarities in how players manage their bankrolls across both disciplines- I don’t buy that. In my opinion, poker pros have successfully transitioned to the DFS world because of an in-depth understanding of probabilities. These pros have an innate ability to understand and react quickly to situations that present themselves because they make decisions based on probabilities.
As an example, when playing poker, a pro is in a situation where they have a 61% chance to win. They will go big with the realization that even if the move they make doesn’t succeed, the odds were in their favor, and over the course of time, they know that by repeating the same scenario, they should wind up +EV.
That type of analytical approach in DFS is the key to long-term success. Taking into account everything above, let’s set a goal this season to improve our DFS game by thinking like a poker pro:
- Let’s play the percentages whenever possible
- Let’s be comfortable fading the high-priced chalk player that we expect to be 40% owned in GPP’s
- Let’s make sure every lineup is constructed in a way that suits the contest we are entering
- Last but not least, let’s maintain our strict bankroll management discipline in order to give ourselves the maximum number or opportunities to get a top tournament finish.
Welcome back to another season of Daily Fantasy Football action. This is my fourth full season doing this column and it is amazing how things have changed in the daily fantasy sports landscape. The whole legal battle issue that popped up last season really put a damper on things; I’m glad it’s behind us (New York) and hopefully more states to follow. Typically, in the first column of the season, I take some time to introduce myself and go through the uncomfortable task of citing all of my DFS credentials. Luckily, I already put together a complete 2016 season intro HERE and you can also view the ABOUT ME page and my ROTOGRINDERS PROFILE to browse through some of my biggest wins and current rankings. I share my credentials because I’ve noticed that every season, more and more websites pop up with people claiming to be “experts” or “pros” at daily fantasy sports or daily fantasy football. Some are really good, but most of them are full of shit. I may not be the best daily fantasy football player in the world, but I’m pretty good at this. I’ve been profiting at daily fantasy football since I started playing back in 2011. More importantly, I love diving into the strategies it takes to become a successful and profitable player and sharing them with you.
What To Expect This Season
Every week of the NFL season I go through every game from the perspective of the Vegas Lines. Logic dictates there is no better source for game flow information than the Vegas oddsmakers. After all, there are hundreds of millions of dollars on the line each week for the Casino’s and the oddsmakers are the best in the world when it comes to predicting what will happen. That’s why it’s so difficult for bettors to beat the spread on a consistent basis. It’s practically impossible. We use the lines, spreads and game totals to make educated predictions about how each game will play out. We then use that knowledge to construct our daily fantasy lineups using proper lineup construction methodologies for the different contest types. Within this column, I generally don’t take player salaries into primary consideration because it’s meant to be useful on multiple DFS sites. Instead, we will keep the focus on game flows. Later in the week, for our DFS Army VIP members, I’ll put out my specific player picks for different contest types alongside custom projections for Fanduel, Draftkings and FantasyDraft. Also, I love discussing DFS strategy as it pertains to lineup construction and bankroll management, so most weeks, I’ll get into a little bit of strategy talk here in the column. Often it will be something we may have learned the week before.
DFS Army VIP Membership
Obviously, if you have been following me and this column for the past few seasons you noticed some changes this year. Last season, I launched the DFS Army VIP concept. It started out as a newsletter where I’d email out my weekly player picks for both Fanduel and Draftkings broke down by player type (Cash,Hybrid,GPP) as well as my all-in plays for the week. We launched a slack chat forum where members of the group could interact with one another, talk DFS Strategy and ask me questions. It worked out really well because a ton of action happens after this column comes out. I was really shocked at the response. We had over 1400 members join last season. When the NFL season was coming to an end, some of the members were asking about NBA, PGA, MLB and some of the other sports. I don’t have much expertise in daily fantasy sports outside of NFL, so I went out and recruited some of my friends from the DFS community that had expertise in the various sports. We quickly grew into a year-round DFS group with Pro level coaches for every sport.
This season we are going all out for the NFL! Our VIP members will still get my weekly player picks and all-in plays, but additionally, I’ve committed to doing a weekly VIP only strategy podcast which should somewhat mirror this column as far as the Vegas Lines format but go much further in depth on each game and different strategies for the different contest types. Another great addition is our complete Daily Fantasy Football cheat sheet where we sort down each players stats, include projections for the week, look at the opposing defense stats and compare salaries across the DFS sites to identify value. It’s an awesome tool that I personally rely on when crafting my player picks and creating lineups.
The biggest change for this season is the launch of the DFS Army Domination Station. I’ve spent the entire offseason working on the ultimate Daily Fantasy Football optimization tool. Within the tool, we are using my customary generated NFL projections to optimize anywhere from one to 150 lineups. You will have the ability to specify how many unique players you want per lineup as well as setting exposure limits for each player. Basically, with this tool, I’m going to teach our VIP members exactly how I attack an NFL slate. I’m hoping to launch the Domination Station in beta mode before Week 1 kickoff. Stay tuned for that.
I’m all about keeping VIP affordable, particularly for newer players that are just starting to build up a bankroll. For that reason I’m rolling out an awesome promotion ahead of Week 1 – Join any of the following sites via our links and I’ll hook up a free month of DFS Army VIP – PLUS lock you in at 20% off the normal monthly rate. Remember this needs to be a new depositing account:
Fanduel – They have a sweet promo going where you get five free entries to paid contests for the first 5 weeks of the season when you make an initial deposit.
Draftkings – You get a $20 credit to your account which you can play right away when you make your initial deposit
Fantasy Draft – Love this newer site where there are tons of overlay and very soft competition…These guys also match your deposit up to $600
Once you register for one of these sites via the links above, let us know which one and what the screen name was by emailing us at [email protected]
The offers combine so for each site you register a new depositing account at you get a free month. The 20% off bonus expires this Sunday at lock so get in there now and check out our group.
If you don’t want to join a new site you can simply Click Here To Check Our Our DFS Army VIP Membership Plan – I’ve included a 20% off coupon at the bottom of the page which expires this Sunday.
Freerolls and Swag Contests
For week one we have a DFS Army Exclusive Freeroll on Fantasy Draft. This bad boy is not shown in the public lobby and can only be entered via this link:
Check out that sweet autographed Drew Brees game jersey. That is part of the 1st place prize for this freeroll. In addition, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd all get DFS Army swag including hats, t-shirts or both! The top 100 finishers share the $200 prize pool. The best part? It’s free to enter! The FREEROLL is limited to 1500 entrants so get in there quick!
Enter The DFS Army Week 1 Daily Fantasy Football Fantasy Draft Freeroll
We also have our season long “Wall of Fame” contest. Grab our DFSArmy.com avatar and use it on your Draftkings and Fanduel accounts.
Any reader that wins 1st place in a GPP, $2000 or more, gets a prestigious spot on our wall of fame as well as a DFS Army swag bag loaded with our hat and t-shirt! Check out our Wall of Fame
Rate the APP – The final swag contest for week one is our Rate The APP contest. We have a free DFS Army app on the play store. The app is great and you can get all of our DFS Army Daily Fantasy Sports content delivered directly to your phone. I’ll also send the occasional push notification when this column drops so you can be the first to read it. Download it HERE and then leave a review. I’ll choose one review at random and call out the reviewer here in the column next week. Winner gets a DFS Army T-Shirt.
Daily Fantasy Football Training Camp
This offseason I completed my “Training Camp” series of Daily Fantasy Football strategy articles. This new series is a completely updated and modernized take on my original strategy columns from years past. It’s amazing that strategy from one or two seasons ago can be considered dated but in the world of daily fantasy sports it’s important to continue to learn and improve to maintain the edge. Read these articles and I promise you will be a better Daily Fantasy Football player!!
Training Camp Series #1 – Stacking and Player Correlations
This one is a look at how players correlate to one another whether they be on the same or opposing teams. Understanding player correlations are one of the most important factors in lineup construction methodology. In cash, we are looking to avoid overly correlated players. In top heavy tournaments, we want players that are extremely correlated.
Training Camp Series #2 Interpreting the Vegas Lines
Series #2 is self-explanatory. This column is about interpreting the lines to better understand how to attack a slate of games for DFS purposes. This write-up covers the methodologies and logic behind the interpretations of the lines we use here in this column. I also spell out some basic Vegas Lines rules of thumb and the logic behind those rules.
Training Camp Series #3 – Different Strategies For Different Contest Types – Cash vs Hybrid vs GPP
Series #3 ties up the first two columns by taking a look at the three different types of contest types we see in DFS and identifying the best statistical methodologies for attacking each contest type. It covers when we should stack players and when we should be looking to fade chalky or high-ownership players. Also, when we should build highly-correlated lineups versus when we should craft lineups that can withstand shocks. I actually think this column is the best and most innovative strategy column I’ve written!
Our Bankroll Management Expert – Choppodong has done his part with his two-part series on bankroll management:
Basic Bankroll Management and the 80/20/10 System
This is a general bankroll management guide designed to keep you in the game for as long as possible.
Use the Ladder System To Revolutionize Your Game
The ladder system is an advanced look at how to allocate your funds in a way that minimizes the risk and maximizes the upside of every lineup. It ties in well with the lineup construction strategies detailed in the Training Camp Series.
WEEK 1 VEGAS LINES BREAKDOWN
Defense Vs Position
This is one of the great charts we have put together for our DFS Army VIPs for this season. This is just a small part of our complete daily fantasy football weekly spread sheet. This particular chart is one that I use alot when evaluating the games.
VEGAS LINES
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
9/8 8:30 ET Carolina -3 At Denver 41.5
9/11 1:00 ET At Atlanta -3 Tampa Bay 47.5
9/11 1:00 ET Minnesota -2.5 At Tennessee 41
9/11 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -4.5 Cleveland 41.5
9/11 1:00 ET Cincinnati -2.5 At NY Jets 41.5
9/11 1:00 ET At New Orleans -1 Oakland 51
9/11 1:00 ET At Kansas City -7 San Diego 44.5
9/11 1:00 ET At Baltimore -3 Buffalo 44.5
9/11 1:00 ET At Houston -6 Chicago 44
9/11 1:00 ET Green Bay -4.5 At Jacksonville 48
9/11 4:05 ET At Seattle -10.5 Miami 44
9/11 4:25 ET At Dallas PK NY Giants 46
9/11 4:25 ET At Indianapolis -4 Detroit 50.5
9/11 8:30 ET At Arizona -6 New England 47.5
Monday Night Football Line
9/12 7:10 ET Pittsburgh -3 At Washington 50.5
9/12 10:20 ET Los Angeles -2.5 At San Francisco 44
WEEK 1 GAME BREAKDOWNS
Before I get to the game breakdowns, it is important to note that Week 1 is notoriously unpredictable. Realistically, the only thing we have to go by is last season’s stats for each team. It’s likely that some of these teams have gotten better defensively or offensively since last season and some have certainly gotten worse. Let’s keep that in mind while crafting our lineups this week. Having scanned most of the salaries across the various DFS sites the theme in week one will be to min or not to min. I’m talking min salary QB’s people! There are three of them starting in week one. Using a min salary QB, particularly on Fanduel, opens up a host of lineup construction options we normally wouldn’t have. The addition of some bargain basement 3 down RB’s to the mix allows for a ton of lineup construction creativity.
Carolina (22.25) -3 At Denver (19.25) 41.5
The season opens with a rematch of the 2015 Super Bowl, but this time, it’s at the home of the defending champs in Denver. The total on this game is one of the lowest of the week. Both teams are defensive juggernauts. Denver is rolling out a neophyte QB for this one.
Normally, I love entering the Thursday through Monday contests and fading the game. Players will be chomping at the bit to get some NFL fantasy action going and there’s a really good chance that some of the offensive players from both teams will be over-owned. The only play that interests me in this game is the Carolina defense. The Panthers will want revenge for the Super Bowl loss and now they get a shot against a QB making his first NFL start. Can’t beat that situation.
Elite Plays: Thursday Fade, Carolina Defense
Tampa Bay (22.5) +3.5 At Atlanta (25.75) – 48 O/U
For our first game of the slate, these two division rivals face off in Atlanta. The 48-point total is above average for the slate and there are story lines galore for this particular match-up. First, will Matty Ice bounce back from a down 2015 season? Will Jameis Winston take a leap forward in year two and increase his efficiency? Mike Evans is another player that slumped after missing the preseason in 2015, so will he live up to his potential? Looking at the lines, Vegas is looking for a close and high-scoring game. Every fantasy relevant player on offense is on the table for this game. The only red flag is the fact that this is a division game. Fading division games are more of a mid-to-late season type of scenario, but I’ll make an exception here. A brief glance at the DvP chart above tells me that both of these teams were below average defensively in 2015.
For the Falcons, the obvious names to target are Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, both of whom carry stud-level salaries on the DFS sites. There are some spectacularly low-priced RBs available in Week 1 with great match-ups so Freeman is more of a contrarian GPP play for me. Julio has as good of a match-up here as any of the WR studs. He’s at home in a game that has shootout potential. One player I’m not sleeping on is Mohammed Sanu- he is locked in as the Falcons WR2 this season and should get peppered with targets, particularly when Julio gets doubled.
On the visiting side, we have the Bucs as a slight road dog with a decent 22.5 point team total. I like to think about where those 22.5 points are going to come from when analyzing a game like this. Realistically, Vincent Jackson is close to washed up. He’ll still vulture the occasional TD but Mike Evans is the go-to guy in this offense. The Falcons don’t have the type of CBs we worry about for fantasy purposes. Evans should be low owned in a slate that features plenty of stud WRs in great spots. Doug Martin should also be a consideration this week- he’s not a player I’d use in cash games, as he is somewhat dependent on game flow. If Atlanta gets a decent lead at home, I’d expect Martin to be shelved in favor of passing down back Charles Sims.
Elite Plays: Jones, Evans
Secondary Plays: Freeman (high salary), Sanu (GPP Flier)
Minnesota (21.75) -2.5 @ Tennessee (19.25) O/U 41
This game features the lowest total on the slate and it’s interesting that the Titans aren’t favored in a home game against a wounded opponent. Realistically, Vegas is telling us to fade this game completely with this line. I’m not one to argue with Vegas but there are a couple of potentially decent plays in this game. First is Delanie Walker. Walker got a 25% share of the targets from Marcus Mariota in 2015. Anytime a TE gets that level of target share they are usable. I also like the idea of using the Titans Defense here. It looks like the Vikings will roll out career backup Shaun Hill as their starter. Anytime a team rolls out a garbage heap QB on the road, it’s a decent spot for the opposing defense. We also have a Vegas rule of thumb that favors QBs in home games as slight underdogs. The missing component here is the game total. In the ideal scenario, we want that home dog QB in a game with a higher total than this one (41). Still, because this is Week 1 and the lines probably aren’t that accurate having to rely on last season’s stats and data, for the most part, I could see taking a GPP shot on Mariotta and maybe even Hill for the minimum salary.
Elite Plays: Walker
Secondary Plays: Titans Defense, Mariotta, Hill
Cleveland (18.75) +4 @ Philadelphia (22.25) O/U 41.5
Robert Griffin III and company travel to Philly to take on a heavily favored Eagles squad. The one thing we know for certain about RG3 is that he is a turnover machine. He gives up the football in multiple ways. Interceptions, sack fumbles and scramble fumbles. That doesn’t mean he can’t put up quality fantasy GB numbers, but it does mean that any defense facing RG3 and the gang are in play. Luckily, we have a bonus in that the Eagles have been an opportunistic defense for the past few seasons. They also sport a quality special teams unit which potentially includes Darren Sproles returning punts.
**Edit – After I initially put this breakdown together, news hit that Sam Bradford was traded to the Vikings. At the moment it looks like Carson Wentz will take over as the starter. That’s another minimum salary QB to add in the mix for this slate. I don’t have much of an opinion to add on Wentz, other than he played well in the preseason before getting hurt.
For the Eagles, there are a plethora of great fantasy options in this game. First and foremost, is the Eagles defense. On top of the RG3 turnover potential, our Vegas Lines rules of thumb specify that the ideal situation for fantasy defenses are when they are at home as heavy favorites facing a turnover prone opponent. This is a unicorn situation where all the check marks are ticked. The other two positions that excel in heavily-favored situations at home are RBs and kickers. I don’t discuss kickers in this column, but I would like to mention Ryan Mathews. Sproles and Matthews are basically game flow dependent RBs, but Sproles will do his best work when the Eagles are in catch-up mode. On the other hand, Matthews will do his best damage when the Eagles are winning or protecting a lead. Cleveland’s run D was atrocious last season and I don’t have any reason to believe that anything has changed there. Matthews is the RB to target on the Eagles this week. As a bonus, he is super cheap across all the DFS sites.
There isn’t much to like on the Cleveland side of this game. I’m not ready to target their rookie WR, Corey Coleman, as a fantasy asset in Week 1. It generally takes time for rookie WRs to get the hang of the NFL. I do like Duke Johnson, Jr. as a potential minimum salary punt play at RB or FLEX. Assuming this game goes as Vegas expects, the Browns will be playing from behind. A player like Duke could easily see 10 targets during the hurry up for the Browns.
Elite Plays: Eagles Defense, Ryan Mathews
Secondary: Jordan Matthews, Duke Johnson Jr, Wentz
Cincinnati (21.75) Pick Em @ NY Jets (21.75) O/U 43
In another game that Vegas sees as a low scoring defensive affair, the Bengals travel to New York to take on my beloved Jets. The Bengals lost a few of their complimentary WRs in the offseason and their replacements appear sketchy at best. They still have Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and the RBBC combo of Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Here’s what we know from last season: Both of these teams have pretty solid defensive units. The Jets are particularly stout versus the run. The Bengals are well-rounded on D but don’t excel in any one area. On the flip side, the Jets are known as a stingy defense across the board, but in particular, they excel against the run.
This type of game is interesting from a fantasy perspective. On the one hand, the Jets have Darelle Revis, a shutdown corner, and the initial thought is to simply avoid Green in this spot. Why bother paying up for a stud WR when he is facing a top level defender? Well, when we dive deeper into this game and how it may play out, with the Jets run defense being legitimately a stonewall, chances are that the Bengals will need to do their scoring through the air. With no Eifert and a rookie in the #2 WR spot, it seems likely that Green will be peppered with targets early and often. Green makes for a sneaky play in all formats with what should be extremely low ownership.
For the Jets, there isn’t a ton to love here. The Bengals bring a solid defense to the table and the totals in this game are low for both teams. Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t looked great in the preseason and appears to still be knocking the rust off. This isn’t a spot where I’m excited to spend up for players like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.
Sneaky Elite Play – A.J. Green
Oakland (24.75) +1.5 @ New Orleans (26.25) 51
Chalk alert! This line screams close game leading to a high-scoring shootout. Anytime the Saints terrible defense is on the field, good things happen from a fantasy perspective. I expect this to be one of the heaviest ownership games of the week.
The Saints passing game features Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead as the primary pass catchers. I’m not buying into the hype surrounding the Saints rookie WR. Another Saint that has been hyped is Coby Fleener. People rightly point out that TE’s really excel in the Saints Offense. Thats true but I think it will take Coby a few games to get the hang of the offense. Fleener is a bit of a bonehead. It was different with the Colts because Fleener had been with Andrew Luck through their collegiate careers and there was a comfort zone on the surface. Even then, he was known to be a mistake prone player. We all remember the first game of the 2015 season when Tyler Eifert torched the Raiders defense for two TD’s and a monster fantasy score. There has been a narrative for a while now to use the TE position against the Raiders and I do think people will target Fleener in this spot. The buzz I’ve heard out of Saints camp regarding him has not been great and some would even say he’s been slow to pick up their system. I’m fading him Week 1. On the ground, Mark Ingram is in a spectacular spot since he is utilized as both a runner and receiver in the Saints attack. His team is favored at home, thus making him a top play.
The situation for the Raiders offense looks really good on paper. The Saints score a ton on offense and their defense sucks across the board. This game has the makings of a back and forth shootout. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Derek Carr and Lats Murray all make for quality fantasy starts.
Elite Plays: Brees, Cooks, Ingram, Murray, Cooper
Secondary Plays: Carr, Crabtree, Snead
San Diego (18) +7.5 @ Kansas City (25.5) O/U 43.5
When I looked at this slate before all the odds were out I didn’t expect the Chargers to have the lowest team total of the week. Still, it’s not for us to question the odds makers. They really like the Chiefs in this spot and KC does sport a fantastic and opportunistic defense, particularly at home.
For the Chiefs, the big news is that it appears Charles isn’t ready to take on a full workload. The buzz out of camp is that Spencer Ware will be getting the start. Normally I’m all over it when a backup priced RB gets thrust into a starting role. It’s particularly great when that RB is facing the Chargers bottom of the barrel run defense. Still, there is a ton of value at RB in week one and even though Ware is starting, I can see the Chiefs getting Charles and even Char West involved in the running game. In other words, I’m probably passing on this muddy situation. I reserve the right to change my mind as new information surfaces. I’ve changed my mind. Word out of KC is that Charles probably doesn’t play at all this week. That puts Ware squarely in the value equation considering he is at home facing a team that was one of the worst vs the RB position in 2015. Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce are the Chiefs’ primary pass catchers. The thing with KC is that they will abandon the pass when they don’t need it, and honestly, they may not need it here.
For the Chargers there’s nothing much to like about the team with the lowest team total of the slate. PASS.
Elite Plays: Chiefs Defense, Spencer Ware
Buffalo (20.25) +3 @ Baltimore (23.25) 43.5
The Bills travel to Baltimore as slight underdogs in a game Vegas expects will be close and low scoring. This is the type of game that generally goes low-owned for DFS purposes. Both sides have reputations as defensive-minded teams, but in reality, the Ravens were brutal versus the pass in 2015.
For Buffalo, the Tyrod Taylor-to-Sammy Watkins stack is certainly in play here. With the low totals on this game, I’d call it more of a contrarian GPP situation. McCoy is usable as well in this spot. The game is expected to be close and McCoy should see all the touches he can handle with no legitimate threats for carries on the Bills.
The Ravens a tougher team to predict, especially their running game as it isn’t exactly settled. Terrance West seems to be the lead back with Buck Allen and possibly Justin Forsett in the mix. At WR, Kamar Aiken seems to be the #1 right now but Breshad Perriman, Mike Wallace and Steve Smith, Sr. are competing for those targets. I’m passing on the Ravens offense completely.
Elite Plays: Watkins
Secondary Plays: Tyrod, McCoy
Chicago (20.5) +4.5 @ Houston (25) 45.5
The Bears travel to Houston as slight underdogs in a game with a middling total of 45.5. Based on the line and Houston’s reputation for having a stifling defense, this game should go under the radar for DFS purposes.
The Bears face a Houston defense that did a great job limiting opposing QBs and pass catchers in 2015. This is not a great spot for Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Houston’s defense was more vulnerable to the RB position last season; the good news for all of us is that the Bears have a running back in Jeremy Langford that is going for cheap salary across the DFS sites. Langford doesn’t appear to have much competition for carries in the Bears backfield and seems slated for a three down role. I’m not ready to completely trust his expected usage in the first game of the season so he’ll be more of a hybrid or GPP play for me.
Houston faces a Bears defense that was horrendous against pass catchers in 2015. With a decent 25-point team total and facing a bottom of the barrel Chicago D at home, I’m planning to fire up the Texans studs in some lineups. There’s been a ton of hype around Lamar Miller and conventional wisdom tells us that Miller is a super talented back, but he was simply not used enough by the Dolphins for most of his time there. I tend to agree. More important than talent, however, are opportunities. The Texans don’t have anyone that can compete with Lamar for touches. One of the primary Vegas Lines rules of thumb is to target RB’s when their team is the favorite at home. It’s also tough to sleep on Hopkins considering he’s facing a team that was at the bottom of the league last season against pass catchers, and WR1 in particular.
Elite Plays: Hopkins, Miller, Langford,
Secondary: Osweiler, Jeffrey
Green Bay (25.75) -4.5 @ Jacksonville (22.25) 48
The Packers start off the season as road favorites against a Jaguars squad that looks to be much improved, particularly on defense. It would be hard for them to not improve considering they were at the bottom of the league defensively in almost every category. The Packers defense was fantastic last season ranking sixth overall.
In my daily fantasy football training camp series, we identified situations where players on average tend to outperform expectations. One of the most significant situations that produced consistent quality fantasy production was QBs playing at home as slight underdogs. Another interesting note specific to the Jaguars was that they did the vast majority of their scoring through the air last season. It’s a big reason they went out and acquired Chris Ivory to split carries with T.J. Yeldon and probably handle goal line duties. Blake Bortles to Allen Robinson should be a sneaky good stack this week.
The Packers get to face off against a team that was simply awful across the board in 2015. It’s tough to know if Jordy Nelson will be back at full strength for this game; if we knew for sure, I’d be heavily investing in him in this situation. This game has serious shootout potential if both of these offenses operate to their full capabilities. Eddie Lacy also makes for an interesting, but a risky option in this one. The buzz on Lacy is that he’s in shape and going to return to the form he showed in his rookie year. I’m not convinced of this and I believe the Packers are more likely to continue the RBBC with Lacy and James Starks swapping in for different series.
Elite Plays: Allan Robinson, Blake Bortles
Secondary: Rodgers, Nelson, Hurns, Cobb
Miami(16.75) -10.5 @ Seattle (27.5) -10.5 44
All I have to say is YIKES. The odds makers don’t like Miami’s chances in this game at all and I’m going to use this as a teachable moment. You may look at this line and think that the 27.5 team total for Seattle looks enticing- don’t be fooled. Teams favored by 10 or more often disappoint from a fantasy perspective. The only positions of interest in a game like this are Seattle D and kicker. On the flip side, Miami on the road with a 16.75 point team total? I’ll pass.
Elite Plays: Seattle D
NY Giants (23) PK At Dallas (23) 46
The Giants travel to Dallas in a pick ’em game with a reasonably high 46-point total. I was expecting to see the Giants as three-point favorites here. One of the reasons I love the NFC East the past few years is because of how explosive the offenses are and how shitty the defenses are. The Giants and the Cowboys both featured putrid defenses in 2015.
Dallas is rolling out pre-season sensation Dak Prescott in this one. Dak is minimum salary on all the DFS sites and will be one of the most popular plays of the weekend. Relatively speaking, Dak is cheapest on Fanduel. This is mainly because Fanduel prices starting QBs higher than the other sites. It’s tough to pass up that type of value in any format. If the line is right and Dallas is going to keep this game close, it will come on the backs of Dez Bryant and Zeke Elliott. One thing to bear in mind when considering Dak in cash games is that this kid is a late-round rookie QB making his first NFL start. There’s risk there.
For the Giants, it’s got to be all hands on deck…or is it? Who are the Giants go-to players this season? Obviously, Eli to OBJ is in play. Outside of that, it looks like Jennings will be the lead back. Vereen is still there as the passing down specialist. They are also rolling out a rookie, Sterling Shepard, in the WR2 spot. I don’t trust rookies in the early part of the season and I’m not sold on Jennings.
Elite Plays: Eli, OBJ, Dak, Dez, Zeke
Secondary: Giants Defense
At Indianapolis (27.25) -4 Detroit (23.25) 50.5
Here we have one of the highest totals on the board for Week 1 as the Colts are at home facing the Megatron-less Lions in a game that Vegas sees as a competitive game. This is an ideal line for offenses and both of these teams are fully in play.
The Colts are facing a Lions defense that was middle of the road unit last season. The Lions actually had a fairly stout run defense but the pass defense was soft. I would expect Andrew Luck to bounce back from his injury-plagued 2015 season. This is a nice spot for him and his pass catchers. Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are all elite plays this week. I’d consider stacking up all three in a GPP lineup.
Matt Stafford and the Lions are in a great spot on the road. The Colts don’t present much of a defensive challenge ranking 26th vs opposing QBs last season. The running game for Detriot is in flux right now but we should get some clarity there as the week rolls on. Ameer Abdullah is the most interesting player in the Lions backfield, but we have no idea how much they plan to use him. The Lions gave Marvin Jones, Jr. (MJJ) a big contract in the offseason and he appears to be stepping into the Megatron role for the Lions. MJJ is one of the best values across all the DFS sites in Week 1. Golden Tate is another name to watch- his salary is much higher then MJJ, so I think he will be extremely low-owned and he makes for more of a GPP contrarian play.
Elite Plays: Luck, Hilton, Moncrief, Stafford, MJJ
Secondary: Tate, Gore
New England (20.75) +6 At Arizona (26.75) 47.5
Jimmy Garoppolo and company head out to the desert to take on an Arizona team that was not kind to opposing QBs or pass catchers last season. The Pats defense was more middle of the pack; they are known for scheming to take out their opponent’s primary weapon. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Cardinals are one of the most well-balanced teams in the league. Vegas has pegged the Cardinals as heavy favorites here with an impressive 26.75 point expected team total.
It’s all hands on deck for the Cardinals. Head coach Bruce Arians tends to keep the pedal to the medal even when his team is sporting a nice lead. One of the trickiest things with Arizona is their tendency to spread the ball around evenly to their three WRs. That tendency can limit the upside for Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. At RB this is David Johnson’s team- he’ll play a three-down role for the Cards and should see action regardless of the score or game situations.
Elite Plays: Mike Floyd, David Johnson, Carson Palmer
Secondary Plays: Fitzgerald
MONDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh (26.75) -3 At Washington (23.75) 50.5
Chalk Alert! We have another close game with a massive 50.5 point total. I love it when two explosive offensive teams with sub-par defenses face off. It’s even better when it is a non-division game. All hands on deck for this one!
The Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown stack is certainly in play for the Steelers. Vegas believes that the Steelers will net three TDs in this game. That’s one for D’Angelo Williams, one for Brown and one other is up for grabs. No reason to get cute here.
The Redskins offense is a little tougher to figure out. Cousins is an elite play as a slight home dog in a game with a massive total. Playing QB’s in that situation is one of the most +EV moves you can make in daily fantasy football. Jordan Reed has been the primary pass catcher for the Redskins over the past season and he should do well in this spot and I expect him to be the highest owned TE of this slate. Redskins RB Matt Jones is more of an under the radar play in this game. Reports are that he is over his shoulder injury and should be good to go for Week 1. Jones has very little competition for touches on the Redskins and should see a heavy workload. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are the top two WRs for the Skins. Both are viable plays this week but their inconsistent workload makes them more suitable for a GPP then cash games. Jackson has the higher upside of the two.
Elite Plays: Ben, Brown, D Williams, Cousins, Reed, Matt Jones
Secondary: DeSean Jackson
Los Angeles (23.25) -2.5 At San Francisco (20.75) 44
In the final game of the slate, the Rams head north to the Bay Area to take on a 49ers team that employs the notorious America-hater and all-around douchebag, Colin Kaepernick. The Rams defense was top notch in 2015. There was really nothing good about the 49ers last season.
There isn’t much fantasy goodness on tap for this game on the 49ers side of the field. It looks like Carlos Hyde may not play this week and journeyman RB Shaun Draughn will take his place as the starter, assuming Hyde doesn’t recover. I’m not excited about rolling out a low-salary backup RB on a shitty team facing a stout defense when so many other cheap RBs are in better spots this week.
For the Rams, this should be the Todd Gurley Show. I could see Gurley getting as many as 30 touches in this game. He should beast against a 49ers defense that was well below average vs the RB position in 2015. I always love getting some exposure to the Monday Night Hammer game. That said, it will be difficult to justify rostering Gurley at top dollar with so many cheap RB options in week one. The Rams defense is also in a solid spot and makes for an alternative way to get some exposure to the last game of the slate.
Elite Plays: Gurley, Rams D
Conclusion
That’s it for the Week 1 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army VIPs, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column.
Let’s kick some ass this week. Remember to think like a poker pro, play the percentages. Use those cheap RBs in high volume situations and pay up for stud WRs.
Good luck!
